South still will go to Bush, experts say

The Tallahassee Democrat ^ | July 7, 2004 | Bill Cotterell

[EllaMinnow]

Putting an energetic young Southerner on his ticket should boost John Kerry's chances in the South, but the region remains a stronghold for President Bush, Florida political leaders said Tuesday.

"A presidential race never really plays out on the state where the vice president comes from," said Barney Bishop, a veteran Tallahassee campaign consultant who heads Democrats for Bush this year. "But John Edwards gives Kerry at least a chance to pick up some strength in the South. He's young and popular."

Florida's U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, who was on Kerry's "short list," thanked him for "the very dignified and professional manner in which he conducted the vice-presidential selection process. I was honored to be seriously considered."

Retiring after 18 years in the Senate and eight as governor, Graham said he will "vigorously campaign for the Kerry-Edwards ticket in Florida."

That could be crucial in what is expected to be another close contest for the state's 27 electoral votes.

"Kerry was very smart about this," said Jon Ausman, a Democratic National Committeeman and former Leon County party chairman. "This definitely puts North Carolina in play and hopefully puts Florida in play."

Republicans dismissed Edwards as "a pretty face" who was Kerry's second choice after Republican John McCain.

No Democratic presidential nominee has carried North Carolina since 1976, when Jimmy Carter won the state. President Bush took it by a margin of nearly 13 percent in 2000. The most recent Mason Dixon Poll in North Carolina showed Bush winning the state by 8 percent over Kerry, but that dropped to a 1-percent lead - "a statistical dead heat" - if Edwards were on the ticket.

Brad Coker, director of the poll, described Edwards as probably an asset in North Carolina and a safe choice for Kerry in Florida.

"I don't think he hurts Kerry in Florida," Coker said. "We haven't polled it here, but it certainly doesn't help as much as Graham would have."

Edwards took 10 percent of the vote in the Florida primary, although he had dropped out of the race a week earlier after failing to slow the Kerry juggernaut in California, Ohio and New York "Super Tuesday" primaries.

Last month he was the featured speaker at the Florida Democratic Party's annual "Jefferson Jackson Day" gala in Broward County and is widely seen as a strong campaigner in the region because of his roots in a South Carolina mill town and his rise to wealth and power as a trial lawyer.

The state president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees predicted that Edwards would help the ticket in Central Florida. The state Democratic Party chairman predicted Edwards would bring in votes from the Panhandle and North Florida.

Even Leon County GOP Chairman Tom Rush said Edwards was "a smart pick" for ticket balancing. The last two Massachusetts Democrats nominated for president, Sen. John Kennedy and Gov. Michael Dukakis, chose Texans for political ballast - not an option for Kerry because that's President Bush's home state.

But he noted that Edwards doesn't have the experience Sens. Lyndon Johnson and Lloyd Bentsen brought to the tickets in 1960 and 1988, respectively. The post in which Edwards is now serving is his first.

"He's a pretty face with no experience in foreign policy and very little experience in the political process," Rush said.

Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings and Florida Republican Party Chairman Carole Jean Jordan noted that even Kerry had dismissed the first-term senator as too inexperienced. Kerry said during some debates in Iowa and New Hampshire that the Oval Office is no place for "on-the-job training."

"It should come as no surprise to the American people that John Kerry has flip-flopped once again in selecting John Edwards as his running mate," the lieutenant governor said. Jordan said the ticket "epitomizes the pessimistic, left-wing agenda that is out of touch with mainstream Floridians."

[labard1]

The altered slogan might work well with some of the pictures of Kerry and Edwards with their hands all over each other.