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South still will go to Bush, experts say
The Tallahassee Democrat ^ | July 7, 2004 | Bill Cotterell

Posted on 07/07/2004 6:53:03 AM PDT by EllaMinnow

Putting an energetic young Southerner on his ticket should boost John Kerry's chances in the South, but the region remains a stronghold for President Bush, Florida political leaders said Tuesday.

"A presidential race never really plays out on the state where the vice president comes from," said Barney Bishop, a veteran Tallahassee campaign consultant who heads Democrats for Bush this year. "But John Edwards gives Kerry at least a chance to pick up some strength in the South. He's young and popular."

Florida's U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, who was on Kerry's "short list," thanked him for "the very dignified and professional manner in which he conducted the vice-presidential selection process. I was honored to be seriously considered."

Retiring after 18 years in the Senate and eight as governor, Graham said he will "vigorously campaign for the Kerry-Edwards ticket in Florida."

That could be crucial in what is expected to be another close contest for the state's 27 electoral votes.

"Kerry was very smart about this," said Jon Ausman, a Democratic National Committeeman and former Leon County party chairman. "This definitely puts North Carolina in play and hopefully puts Florida in play."

Republicans dismissed Edwards as "a pretty face" who was Kerry's second choice after Republican John McCain.

No Democratic presidential nominee has carried North Carolina since 1976, when Jimmy Carter won the state. President Bush took it by a margin of nearly 13 percent in 2000. The most recent Mason Dixon Poll in North Carolina showed Bush winning the state by 8 percent over Kerry, but that dropped to a 1-percent lead - "a statistical dead heat" - if Edwards were on the ticket.

Brad Coker, director of the poll, described Edwards as probably an asset in North Carolina and a safe choice for Kerry in Florida.

"I don't think he hurts Kerry in Florida," Coker said. "We haven't polled it here, but it certainly doesn't help as much as Graham would have."

Edwards took 10 percent of the vote in the Florida primary, although he had dropped out of the race a week earlier after failing to slow the Kerry juggernaut in California, Ohio and New York "Super Tuesday" primaries.

Last month he was the featured speaker at the Florida Democratic Party's annual "Jefferson Jackson Day" gala in Broward County and is widely seen as a strong campaigner in the region because of his roots in a South Carolina mill town and his rise to wealth and power as a trial lawyer.

The state president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees predicted that Edwards would help the ticket in Central Florida. The state Democratic Party chairman predicted Edwards would bring in votes from the Panhandle and North Florida.

Even Leon County GOP Chairman Tom Rush said Edwards was "a smart pick" for ticket balancing. The last two Massachusetts Democrats nominated for president, Sen. John Kennedy and Gov. Michael Dukakis, chose Texans for political ballast - not an option for Kerry because that's President Bush's home state.

But he noted that Edwards doesn't have the experience Sens. Lyndon Johnson and Lloyd Bentsen brought to the tickets in 1960 and 1988, respectively. The post in which Edwards is now serving is his first.

"He's a pretty face with no experience in foreign policy and very little experience in the political process," Rush said.

Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings and Florida Republican Party Chairman Carole Jean Jordan noted that even Kerry had dismissed the first-term senator as too inexperienced. Kerry said during some debates in Iowa and New Hampshire that the Oval Office is no place for "on-the-job training."

"It should come as no surprise to the American people that John Kerry has flip-flopped once again in selecting John Edwards as his running mate," the lieutenant governor said. Jordan said the ticket "epitomizes the pessimistic, left-wing agenda that is out of touch with mainstream Floridians."


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Louisiana; US: Michigan; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2004; 44; bushcountry; bushwinssouth; election2004; kerryedwards; southernvote
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From the Tallahassee angle, and more about Florida than other states.
1 posted on 07/07/2004 6:53:03 AM PDT by EllaMinnow
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To: EllaMinnow

Bush has Alabama.


2 posted on 07/07/2004 6:54:42 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Sen. Leahy....Just do it!)
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To: Laura Earl

He's got Georgia, too! And I think he's got Florida.


3 posted on 07/07/2004 6:57:17 AM PDT by EllaMinnow
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To: EllaMinnow

Surely, a ticket led by war hero Kerry(he served in Nam), and bolstered by son of the South Edwards, can sweep to victory in Dixie, and help make the world safe for children and government employees and gigolos and trial lawyers.


4 posted on 07/07/2004 7:02:54 AM PDT by headsonpikes (Spirit of '76 bttt!)
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To: headsonpikes

Let's pray not!


5 posted on 07/07/2004 7:05:04 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Sen. Leahy....Just do it!)
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To: Laura Earl

My cheek was full of tongue!


6 posted on 07/07/2004 7:10:36 AM PDT by headsonpikes (Spirit of '76 bttt!)
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To: Laura Earl

Let's not forget Mississippi...


7 posted on 07/07/2004 7:13:02 AM PDT by trebb (Ain't God good . . .)
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To: EllaMinnow

Yep. And Kerry showed weakness in picking Edwards so soon, as well. He gave the Bush team an extra few weeks to define Edwards. Bad tactical move.


8 posted on 07/07/2004 7:16:48 AM PDT by veronica (Hate-triotism, the religion of leftists, liberals, anti-semites, and other cranks...)
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To: veronica

I heard last night that Kerry didn't even want Edwards, he wanted Bob Graham - but was talked out of it.


9 posted on 07/07/2004 7:18:18 AM PDT by EllaMinnow
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To: headsonpikes

--Surely, a ticket led by war hero Kerry(he served in Nam),--

sKerry was in Nam??? wow I didnt know...

hehehehehe


10 posted on 07/07/2004 7:24:54 AM PDT by backinthefold (9/11 changed me, and I will never forget)
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To: EllaMinnow
I heard last night that Kerry didn't even want Edwards, he wanted Bob Graham - but was talked out of it.

Where did you hear that?

I was able to gather that different factions wanted their guy in. The rank and file of the party liked Edwards since they saw him on the campaign trail. Unions liked Gephardt for his lifetime commitment and he could have helped in the midwest. DNC insiders, like the Klintons, liked Vilsack because he was liberal enough, but from the midwest, and most important, innocuous enough and without ambition for the 2008 race.

11 posted on 07/07/2004 7:26:16 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator (This space outsourced to India)
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To: headsonpikes

Ooohhhh...okay! :)


12 posted on 07/07/2004 7:26:24 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Sen. Leahy....Just do it!)
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To: trebb

Of course not!


13 posted on 07/07/2004 7:27:06 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Sen. Leahy....Just do it!)
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To: KC_Conspirator

MSNBC. They had some of the signs from yesterday morning's rally - prited with "Kerry/Edwards" on one side, "Kerry/Graham" on the other.


14 posted on 07/07/2004 7:28:42 AM PDT by EllaMinnow
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To: All

Edwards can't even help Kerry take North Carolina or South Carolina. We do not like trial lawyers down here. I just can't picture Edwards going deer hunting.


15 posted on 07/07/2004 7:38:06 AM PDT by bitty
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To: bitty

"I just can't picture Edwards going deer hunting."

Can a deer be 'bagged' by either subpeona or class-action, that is the question?


16 posted on 07/07/2004 7:41:57 AM PDT by familyofman (and the first animal is jettisoned - legs furiously pumping)
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To: EllaMinnow

No way. That is so hilarious and embarrassing.


17 posted on 07/07/2004 7:42:55 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator (This space outsourced to India)
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To: KC_Conspirator

Kerry was for McCain before he was against Gephardt before he was for Graham before he chose Edwards.

18 posted on 07/07/2004 7:49:02 AM PDT by EllaMinnow
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To: bitty

I can't picture him participating in any manly endeavor.


19 posted on 07/07/2004 7:49:12 AM PDT by Laura Earl (Sen. Leahy....Just do it!)
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To: veronica
Bad tactical move.

Not only that, but it was the only tactical move he could have made. He had to pull the trigger now lest he fall further behind Bush. However, now that the choice has been made so soon, and Edwards' honeymoon will run its course (I think), there's less excitement building into the convention, and 2-3 weeks from now, there won't be much of a point to watching the DNC (not that there is one already).

Kerry didn't exactly pull a rabbit out of his hat on this one either. He could have picked popular moderates like Nunn or Bayh, but he picked a pretty-boy ambulance chaser with the fourth most liberal record in all of the US Senate. Not to mention, just about EVERYONE thought he'd be the pick (I had thought it might be Gephardt, but could see this one coming just as easily). Now the Bush team, if they so desire, has the gift of more time to attack the both of them at the same time.

I'm a little more optimistic than some on this board who think it's game over. There's reasons why Edwards wouldn't have been re-elected, and there's tons of reasons why John Kerry is unfit to serve. Stay tuned.

20 posted on 07/07/2004 7:49:25 AM PDT by GiveEmDubya (Vote -- It's Easier Than Fighting Terrorism)
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