Bush aide foresees early lead for Kerry -July's convention may push Demo to 55-40 edge, he says

Deseret News ^ | 7/6/04 | Ken Herman

[NYC Republican]

Challenger John Kerry, who according to campaign sources is expected to announce his running mate this morning, will lead President Bush by 15 points when the Democratic convention wraps up at the end of July, according to a top Bush campaign adviser.

Presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry reacts after a speech by his wife Monday at an Independence Day celebration in Fox Chapel, Penn.

Gerald Herbert, Associated Press In a memo to campaign leadership Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry is about to benefit from "the average challenger's bounce." "We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August," Dowd, who remains confident Bush will win, said in the memo. Current polls show a dead heat, but Dowd said Kerry could be up by a 55 percent to 40 percent margin in early August. Dowd also noted that Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted Sunday that Kerry would be up by 8 to 10 points following the convention. Dowd told campaign officials that history shows a challenger always gets a "dramatic, if often short-lived" bounce from the convention and the selection of a running mate. Speculation about Kerry's running mate has centered on Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as Kerry has kept mum about his preference. Kerry said last week the selection would be announced in an e-mail to supporters, but he would not say when it would go out. Others still in the mix as possible running mates include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, though Biden downplayed his chances Monday. "No one's done any vetting, any checking that I'm aware of," he told CNN outside his home in Wilmington, Del. "There's not a single thing that's occurred relative to the vice presidency and me that I'm aware of." The Associated Press quoted two officials "close to the Kerry campaign" Monday who said that Edwards interrupted a trip to Walt Disney World last week to meet with Kerry in Washington. But the officials cautioned about reading too much into that, saying Edwards is not the only potential vice presidential candidate who has met covertly with Kerry. On Monday, Kerry picked up the endorsement of the National Education Association, the nation's largest union. The Massachusetts senator got 86.5 percent of the assembly's votes. Bush had declined to participate in the NEA's endorsement process. Kerry will speak to the NEA convention on Tuesday. "We believe John Kerry will work with educators to develop common-sense solutions to the challenges in America's classrooms, schools and communities," said Reg Weaver, NEA president. The NEA endorsement means manpower and money in 15 battleground states targeted by the association. Kerry on Monday hosted an Independence Day picnic near Pittsburgh that included supporters from Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, three November battleground states. The presumptive Democratic nominee will campaign in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, New York and Washington, D.C., this week. Bush, who will do a bus tour of Pennsylvania on Friday, had no public events on Monday. Instead, he went for a bike ride in Maryland. He was taken to a Secret Service facility in Beltsville, Maryland Md., for a bike ride.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I won't be surprised if Kerry gets a huge double digit lead. I will be surprised if he sustains the same. Of course, he has sycophants in the press working overtime for him, as well as the socialists like George Soros, et al.

[Happy2BMe]

PING

[1Old Pro]

Kerry will get a 5 point bounce, much less than he "should" get. This will be the first indictation of a Bush landslide.

[1Old Pro]

If he isn't up by double digits after his convention, Bush has it walking away.

I totally agree.

[devolve]

Stock markets worldwide dropped as soon as they saw a radical liberal democrat in the US Senate #4 John Edwards picked by radical liberal democrat in the US Senate #1 John Kerry to run as his Vice Presidential candidate........


Shades of March 2000 when Slick Willie and his AG Janet Reno sued Microsoft and Bill Gates and started the stock market crash and deep recession GW Bush is guiding us out of with tax cuts and his administrations intelligent economic plans.

John Kerry insists he will kill those tax cuts to millions of American families!

Like Clinton? :

http://pro.lookingat.us/ClintonNoTaxes.wav

Or GW Bush:


http://pro.lookingat.us/GWTaxCuts.wav

1971: http://pro.lookingat.us/KerryLastManToDie.mp3

32 years later, the Berlin Wall is gone, the Comminist USSR is gone, but John Kerry still cries his radical "Global Socialism" left wing BS and tells us that putting the US and US military under UN control is the only way to go (like in Rowada, Somalia, and Bosnia?)

2003: http://pro.lookingat.us/KerryInternationalismTerrorism.mp3

What would GW Bush say and do?

http://pro.lookingat.us/GWNotYield.wav

http://pro.lookingat.us/GWAlpha.wav


For the "common good" John?


Want more "gems" from John Kerry and Teddy and Slick Willie and Hillary? :

(+ some Reagan & Patton, and GW)

The Kerry Blab-Book Audio Archives:

http://pro.lookingat.us/Kerrioki.html

Put yer Mae West on! :

http://pro.lookingat.us/MaryJo.html

Kerry the 1971 Commie newpaper hero:

http://00access.tripod.com/KerrysMedals.html

How the media is cheating on their push-polls:

http://00access.tripod.com/Libs.html

GW:

http://00access.tripod.com/GW.html

[veronica]

Rope-a-dope...

[Edit35]

Lately I've started to go wobbly on that position.

If we did not take out Saddam Hussein, the Islamist-Arab world right about now would have fanned themselves into flames of invincibility by convincing themselves that America is scared and too weak.

Secondly, I always harken back to the saying: If a rattlesnake is poised and ready to strike, you don't wait until its fangs are embedded in your flesh before you act.

Thirdly, and I am tired of hearing people like yourself go wobbly, do you really think that Iraq and AlQaeda had a signed contract verifying their support and each of their specific roles in their quest to attack America??

The Iraqi's were giving tacit support, monetary and training, to the very terrorists who attacked us. Were we supposed to just give them a tongue lashing??

[jwalsh07]

The administration is virtually forced to maintain its stance that Iraq had WMDs and a link to Al Qaeda, even while less and less of the public believes it to be the case.

The truth is always a stance on firm ground. Only lunatics, the truly misguided and party apparatchiks would claim that Iraq did not posess WMD, WMD programs and ties to Al Qa'ida in the march to the Iraq Theatre.

I'm hoping you don't fall into any of those categories NL.

[jwalsh07]

Lately I've started to go wobbly on that position.

Lemme guess. You wear a bowtie and pay 5 bucks for a cup of coffee.

[beckett]

Lemme guess. You wear a bowtie and pay 5 bucks for a cup of coffee.

Very funny.

Let me just clarify a little. When I say "go wobbly" it doesn't mean my vote would ever go to Kerry, it means that my former strongly held view that Bush's status as war leader would carry the election for him is now much more weakly held, or, if you will, more wobbly held.

[MeekOneGOP]

Hear the Donkey Bray
(RealPlayer)

[Expletive deleted] !!!

[beckett]

Thirdly, and I am tired of hearing people like yourself go wobbly, do you really think that Iraq and AlQaeda had a signed contract verifying their support and each of their specific roles in their quest to attack America??

As I said in an earlier post, there are plenty of good justications for the war, but too many of them, like the al-Qaeda/Hussein connection, cannot be plainly demonstrated in unambiguous, open language, which is a severe problem for a leader who needs to openly rally a vast and diverse electorate around his war aims.

I personally have no doubt that Saddam had a cooperative relationship with Bin Laden, and polls seem to indicate that much of the country is similarly inclined, but it sure would be nice to see a proof for the charge that doesn't require a kind of subtle understanding the secret activities of rogue regimes but can be easily dechiphered by JoeSixPack, i.e., the typical voter.

[beckett]

...Buckley/Will line: knowing what we do now the same decision would not have been made

I noticed Buckley said that, which becomes something else Bush must work to overcome. It provides an excellent debating point for his opponents.

[beckett]

al-Qaeda is seen as stronger than ever; Iraq is seen as another quagmire

I understand you're saying that people you know hold these positions, not that you hold them.

I myself hold neither of them. Al-Qaeda is weaker than ever, IMHO, and will soon be even weaker if Allawi handles Fallujah correctly. I never thought al-Qaeda was very strong to begin with, I admit. I've long looked at the 911 success as something of a fluke, and I take al-Qaeda's inability to mount a follow-on attack in almost three years as proof.

Iraq might sour, but I doubt it would ever reach the proportions of a quagmire, a term too closely associated with Vietnam to ever apply to Iraq, since the military situations in the two countries have literally nothing in common.

[Doctor Stochastic]

Perceptions win elections, not reality. "Missle Gap"

[Eva]

I predict that you're right, a neglible bump is expected by the media, anyway. They are already stating that they will not cover much of the conventions. They would rather refuse to cover the boring Democrat convention than have to cover the Republican convention in the same manner, risking giving Bush more of a bounce later in the election season.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

A 15 pt bump does NOT equate to a 55-40 lead. Sheesh.

[Smartass]

[Smartass]

TO SHORT. THESE DEMS ARE DOOMED...

[MeekOneGOP]

LOL ! Kerry-Edwards: The bass-ackwards candidates.