I understand you're saying that people you know hold these positions, not that you hold them.
I myself hold neither of them. Al-Qaeda is weaker than ever, IMHO, and will soon be even weaker if Allawi handles Fallujah correctly. I never thought al-Qaeda was very strong to begin with, I admit. I've long looked at the 911 success as something of a fluke, and I take al-Qaeda's inability to mount a follow-on attack in almost three years as proof.
Iraq might sour, but I doubt it would ever reach the proportions of a quagmire, a term too closely associated with Vietnam to ever apply to Iraq, since the military situations in the two countries have literally nothing in common.
Perceptions win elections, not reality. "Missle Gap"