Posted on 07/05/2004 6:32:34 PM PDT by C.H. Truth
The President maintains his lead in the CCPA by 2.1% over challenger John Kerry. Kerry leads in the two way polling by 3/10's of a percent. Bush's CCPA approval rating stands at 47.8%, and the President leads in the Projected Electoral College tracking 274-264. Unchanged from last week.
*The CCPA consists of a weighted average of the past 15 polls.
Does this include all polls, or only the ones that at least poll registered voters?
Polling "adults" is fairly worthless...
Uptick alert..and corresponding dead cat bounce for John F'n "flip-flop fop" Kerry on his final final VP choice.
I've been following the polls posted here on FR...and I've seen more "adults" polls then any year in the past.
I have to agree with Swilhelm, CH. FReepers are VERY good at analyizing polls, and there has been a plethera of big name polls polling ADULTS rather than even registered voters. It seems if there are registered or likely voter polls, they're embedded in the all adult polls as subsets. Of course, the MSM fill the headlines with the all adults survey numbers, which favor Kerry....
I'm in with CH Truth. I'm calling the race for Bush 274-264. The only major changes from 2000 are the name of the Democrat candidate and New Hampshire defecting to Kerry.
Minor changes: Kerry will rack up a formidable popular vote lead, probably by 3 to 5 points, but no one really cares about the popular vote anyway. Bush will not appear on the ballot in Illinois, and hence will lose all of his supporters there that have not fled the liberal-dominated state. Right now I see Maine (which uses a Congressional-district system) splitting 3-1 for Kerry and Colorado (which will switch retroactively to a proportional system if a certain initiative passes) 6-3 for Bush. Accounting for these anomalies and assuming no faithless electors and presuming that Bush wins the inevitable legal war over Florida, I get 272-266 BUSH.
I do not believe that pollsters properly account for the present hundreds of thousands of overseas military absentee ballots, and I will presume for the moment that these soldiers will not vote from fear that liberal activist judges will decree that they meant to vote for Kerry. Otherwise, the courts and Democrats almost certainly will act to disqualify their ballots.
Want to ensure Ralph Nader gets on the ballot in your state? Go to:
http://www.votenader.org/
Check out the upper left hand corner of the page.
Help them with their petition drive in your state if applicable. At the very least sign their petition. Really want to have some fun, circulate a petition around among friends and family.
Let’s support democracy. Get Ralph on the ballot in as many states as possible.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.