Skip to comments.June Gave Bush a Bounce in National Polls
Posted on 07/02/2004 11:44:13 AM PDT by veronica
In June, during a period encompassing the death of Ronald Reagan and the magnificent memorial services in Reagans honor, President Bush got a bounce in national polls tracking the presidential race.
The nationwide USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll gave Bush a net 7-point jump. In the poll conducted June 3-6, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry led Bush 50% to 44%. But in the same poll conducted June 21-23 (before the surprise June 28 handover of sovereignty to Iraqs interim government), Bush led Kerry, 49% to 48%.
Other polls showed similar trends. A nationwide New York Times poll conducted May 20-23, showed Kerry leading Bush, 49% to 41%. But in the same poll conducted June 23-27, Kerry led Bush by only 45% to 41%. When Ralph Nader was added, Bush led Kerry, 43% to 42%, with Nader taking 5%. A Fox News poll of registered voters conducted June 22-23, put Bush over Kerry, 48% to 42%. When Nader was added, Bush led Kerry, 47% to 40%, with Nader taking 3%. George Washington Universitys Battleground Poll put Kerry over Bush, 49% to 48% in March, but in June it had Bush and Kerry exactly tied, 48% to 48%.
The incumbents job approval rating has been a key indicator in recent presidential elections. On this score, Bush is doing well, according to Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who, along with Democrat Celinda Lake, conducts the Battleground Poll. Bushs job approval rating in that poll is now 51%. In June 1984, President Reagans was 53%. In June 1996, President Clintons was 52%. By contrast, in June 1980, President Carters was only 31%, while in June 1992, President George H.W. Bushs was 38%.
Some statewide polls augur even better for Bush. In 2000, Gore beat Bush in Pennsylvania, 50% to 46%. But a Fox News poll completed June 23, had Bush beating Kerry there, 47% to 44%. In 2000, Gore beat Bush in Michigan, 51% to 46%. Now the state is in play. The Fox News poll has Kerry nosing Bush, 44% to 43% in a two-way race. But when Nader is added, Bush beats Kerry, 42% to 40%, with Nader taking 5%. In 2000, Gore defeated Bush in Wisconsin by a mere 5,708 votes. This year, Bush has maintained a lead in that state. A University of Wisconsin poll in March put Bush ahead of Kerry, 47% to 41%, with 5% going to Nader. The same poll completed June 23 had Bush leading Kerry, 46% to 42%, with Nader taking 5%. Kerry has scheduled two campaign trips to Wisconsin for July.
Have people stopped posting the Rassmussen poll? I haven't seen it for days.
I take it more as an indicator of movement than anything else.
How long before the national media outlets start calling it a "dead cat" bounce?
June Gave Bush a Bounce in National Polls
Democratic Presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites), D-Mass., looks at a newspaper as he chats with members of the news media onboard his campaign plane Friday, July 2, 2004. Kerry is en route to Minnesota, where he will begin a three day bus campaign trip through Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Oh Crap, more good news for the nation and Bush. Can't we have another beheading of a marine or something? 16 or 17 Sarin gas shells... Hurry up guys we have to spin this. There are no WMDs in Iraq. Repeat, these aren't WMDs because they are so old.
Uh Oh, they got Ryans sealed divorce records. Good thing my buddies in the press are for me, they won't ask for them. Glad we have so many surrogates in the press.
I suspect there will be a bounce for Kerry right after the convention but the advantage for Bush will come closer to the election after the republican convention.
You're not missing anything. Daily tracking polls more than two to three weeks out from an election are nothing more than the political equivalent of self-flaggelation.
Dippy liberal broad in the back of the plane:
"Hmmm. Now how in the hell do I tell him the Botox is starting to wear off?"
The trouble with the University of Wisconsin poll is that they don't measure how many voters are going to vote multiple times--that is what gave Gore his margin of victory in 2000.
Expect the media to puke up some polls right after (the same night) Kerry names him VP choice that will show Kerry & ??? Up by 5%-10%. After the Terrorist, err Democrat Convention, expect the polls to show Kerry up by 10%-15% if not more.
Said Kerry while reading the paper onboard his plane, "This Kerry guy sounds like someone I'd vote for. I never knew he served in Vietnam."
1-SECURITY, whether the Dems like it or not will become a powerful force once the ranting and posturing are both finished, AND THE CURTAIN IS CLOSED, and the voter is ALL ALONE IN THE VOTING BOOTH.
2-WOMEN. Security for the female of the species is an innate imperative, and will trump the economic bait which has been used to buy their vote (successfully in the past, but think Maslow's hierarchy of needs).
3-THE DEBATES. The media will no doubt paint each debate as competitive, but viewers will see right through Kerry, he's no Clinton, heck, he's not even an Algore.
4-THE MAIN STREAM MEDIA HAS BEEN EXPOSED. People DO NOT like being spun, much less being lied to, and the fact that Fox News is roaring while the alphabet TV networks are losing viewers is one indication, and of course talk radio and the internet are both exploding with growth another, that CREDIBILITY is now a factor in information gathering on the part of voters. The dwindling loyal audience of the left-wing information purveyors go there because the WANT to be lied to, as it completes their warped worldview, and thereby gives them comfort, but nonetheless no longer has the power to sway the swing vote.
5-BILL COSBY. Do not discount the power of this seminal event. Mr. Cosby spoke to the heart of the issues in this country for Blacks, and make no mistake, they heard him. This will embolden the already growing but mostly timid conservative voices within the Black community, and give them the impetus to speak up. From vouchers to gay marriage to the realization that victimhood is anathema to their interests, the Democratic Party has now been "outed". They will not vote Republican in droves, but just as critical for this election, they will simply stay home. Even a slight trend in this regard will be enough to sway some states toward the Republicans, and this will be "Good Night Irene" for the Dem plantation owners.
I don't know. I haven't seen one in a while either.
I agree that his strong stand against the blame the whites/victimization/foul language, name calling black icons/education is for whites only attitude could very well make inroads into the Dem stranglehold over African Americans.
No matter what his politics are, Bill Cosby is a real hero, IMO, and I pray that what he is saying does have an impact.
Wow. What a great Freeper home page. Are those your kids in uniform? If so, thanks to you and yours for your service to this country!
Yes, that's my son.......he spent almost 11 months of his 13 month deployment in Baghdad (those pics are taken at the North Palace near the airport).
He's been home since April, and he's doing great!
Never been prouder in my life of anyone or anything than I am of him and what he did there.
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