Posted on 06/30/2004 7:16:53 AM PDT by Bonaventure
Here are the big dirty little secrets about the election, all guaranteed to be true and (almost) all guaranteed to make every one of our sources angry.
. . .
3. A lot of Democrats — including some of the smartest ones we know — look at the latest polling data and claim to think that the election is all but over.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
"The election isn't over until Dick Morris picks a winner.
....and the other guy will win, of course."
So when Morris goes to his nose we will know the outcome of the electiion? I assume that a winner from the left nostril would be Bush and a winner from the right nostril would be Kerry. A little too cryptic for me.
In 2000, both VPs were announced a week before the respective conventions.
Cheney was selected July 24.
Lieberman was selected August 7.
Yes, but if there is another civil war, our side will have the guns! :o)
I dunno...looks to me like she got run over by a Brinks truck and dragged face down on a gravel road for about a mile.
The URL reads (at the end) SAD=TRUE.
I don't think they mean this in the happy (for DemonCraps) sense.
IMO, they are using these sauced polls to keep the approval numbers for W down. The polls that oversample Dems always appear just after those that show W w/a lead over the MOE &/or after polls show major battleground states trending his way.
Then, as you say, they can spin headlines w/"Bush numbers low".
I also agree W has a 5-8pt lead, nationally and enough EVs to win.
I agree with you - I believe the (smart) Dems think Kerry cannot win.
LOL Well, of course. Liberal reporters only hang out with others of the same mindset. Naturally, they won't find anyone who voted for Gore who is planning to vote for Bush. They simply don't hange out in the same places those kinds of people would.
Five pounds of salami and melted Limburger, on a king-size loaf of white bread spread with 1/2 gallon of mayo, with a side of mashed potatoes covered in sour cream and butter, washed down with a 3 liter bottle of Mountain Dew.
This is off the subject just a bit, but I have to say (again) that I have NEVER seen such visceral hatred by the media for a sitting President. For someone new to our country, even from one ruled by a dictator, I wonder if all this rhetoric from the Democratic supporters - the regular media, the guys making propaganda-type movies and writing books that skewer our President - if this has any impact and they wonder why they thought this was such a great place to come to. It sure would give ME a reason to reconsider. It is all so depressing. Wouldn't it be great if the President won by a landslide? Oh, now that would be REMARKABLE !
NEWS SUMMARY
Here are the big dirty little secrets about the election, all guaranteed to be true and (almost) all guaranteed to make every one of our sources angry.
1. Whoever wins the electoral votes of 2 out of 3 (or 3 out of 3) of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida will be the next president of the United States.
2. By keeping his physical and psychic distance, John Kerry has fostered less Stockholm Syndrome among his regular traveling press corps than any Democratic presidential candidate since.. well … since Al Gore. (Kerry's ways make the relationship between Walter Mondale and Lee Kamlet look like that between John McCain and Tucker Carlson, if you know what we mean.)
3. A lot of Democrats — including some of the smartest ones we know — look at the latest polling data and claim to think that the election is all but over.
4. Note to Devenish and Cutter — get used to it. The dominant political press narrative creators have locked in. President Bush will never be held to the same standard as Senator Kerry on flip-flopping and Senator Kerry will never be held to the same standard as the president on saying careless/wrong things for effect.
5. The central theory of the Bush campaign is that winning depends on destroying John Kerry by making him unacceptable to the American people as a commander in chief, someone to have in their living rooms for four years, and a liberal, flip-flopping, pessimistic tax increaser.
6. Bush advisers who are putting all their chips on the Iraq handover leading to an improvement in right track/wrong track and the president's job approval are (semi-)secretly worried that — even if the facts on the ground improve — public opinion and perception will lag and not improve commensurately (and enough) by November to make a difference — a la 41 and the economy in '92.
7. Most Democrats are fraidy cats who don't think in their hearts they can win the White House or, if they win it, don't think they can hold it for any length of time — and/but John Kerry is an conspicuous exception to this.
8. Nearly every political reporter in America is having the same experience — they keep finding Republicans who say they will never vote again for President Bush (over the the war and the deficit, usually) but they have a heck of a time finding anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 who are now certain that they will vote for Bush (and Gore apparently won the popular vote).
9. Beyond a core group who has known him for years, would walk through walls for him, and respects how tough he is, Kerry's staff evinces less respect for him and less fondness for him than Gore's people did about the 2000 standard bearer.
10. There will be less national debate this year about what the agenda of either Bush or Kerry for 2005-2009 will be than any of you can imagine.
11. There is absolutely no way of knowing until election day if the Republicans' 72 hours program, or either parties' 527s, or the virulent anti-Bush animation will produce on-the-ground practical results or tidal waves or not — the only index that matters is winning.
12. For reasons both tactical and strategic, ABC News continues to leave unpublished the names of a lot of Democrats who are secretly working for John Kerry's veepstakes operation. But, don't be under any illusions — we know who you are.
13. No one — included John Kerry or the smarties who work for him — has any idea what the reaction will be among elites, masses, and political reporters if someone other than John Edwards is picked as Kerry's running mate. And the range of possible reactions is wide as all get out.
14. The White House has some carefully planned and perfectly appropriate August/September/October surprises up its sleeve.
15. The Kitty Kelley book.
16. No matter how many times they try to deny it, Democrats are trying to talk down the economic recovery.
17. No matter how many times they try to deny it, Republicans are planning to tactically use gay marriage to influence certain voting groups.
18. No matter how many cute quotes Gene Sperling can come up with, if employment, personal income, and consumer confidence are on the rise in a given battleground state, Senator Kerry needs to find something else to talk about.
19. 50-minute speeches to minority groups do not make up for perceived failures in other outreach areas.
20. You sure do know a lot of secrets for a Note from Brooklyn. (Note: Item #20 only accessible to readers of the New York Times advertising column.)
Today's must-reads include:
--John Harwood's Virginia focus group, which asks "Who is John Kerry?" in the Wall Street Journal .
--The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman on the fight for the fiscal future of the GOP. LINK
--The New York Times ' Johnston and Stevenson on John Ashcroft's political problems, most Notable for how little the Times men were able to get. LINK
--The Washington Post 's Harold Meyerson on Dick Cheney and a double standard. LINK
-- USA Today 's Judy Keen and Richard Benedetto on Laura Bush — the most balanced and thoughtful piece we have read about Mrs. Bush in some time. LINK
--The Washington Post 's Robert Samuelson on why he doesn't buy red-state/blue-state arguments. LINK
In an election year rarity, President Bush and Senator Kerry are both down all day — at the White House and the Heinz estate in Pennsylvania, respectfully.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates today for the first time since May 16, 2000 in a 2:15 pm announcement.
RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie continues his Catholic Outreach Tour in Portland, Ore. and Bellevue, Wash., where he campaigns for Rep. Nethercutt.
**Kerry's staff evinces less respect for him and less fondness for him than Gore's people did about the 2000 standard bearer.**
Says a lot about Kerry without saying it!
Nonsense, won't happen.
LOL! And there is no threat of terrorists crossing over from Mexico either.
I read it differently. The Democrats, via the media, have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Bush and he's in front of Kerry in most polls and picking up ground in the rest. Where is Kerry's traction? I'm in New York, and aside from a few hardcore lefties, I don't see great love for the Junior $inator from Taxachusetts.
If the Democrats want to get complacent, let them!
Actually the northern border is a much greater threat for that kind of thing.
Who believes the bree eating liberal snobs are going to riot and burn? Blacks and minorities aren't. It ain't gonna happen. Besides rioting season normally ends in September.
Maybe because the people interviewed are lying? Just a thought.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.