Posted on 06/30/2004 7:16:53 AM PDT by Bonaventure
Here are the big dirty little secrets about the election, all guaranteed to be true and (almost) all guaranteed to make every one of our sources angry.
. . .
3. A lot of Democrats — including some of the smartest ones we know — look at the latest polling data and claim to think that the election is all but over.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
How big is that group?
Two people?
They're so deluded. They'd have better luck in Canuckistan than here.
Let 'em get cocky. Then their interest groups will start demanding things even before the election, and the Bush hatred approach will get even more intense.
Frnakly I think they're nuts. Things are only going to get better in the next few months in Iraq (where we're not on the hook anymore) and in the economy, so Bush will head upwards, not downwards.
Good point. And how smart are the smartest Democrats, anyway?
Check out point 6 from today's Note:
6. Bush advisers who are putting all their chips on the Iraq handover leading to an improvement in right track/wrong track and the president's job approval are (semi-)secretly worried that — even if the facts on the ground improve — public opinion and perception will lag and not improve commensurately (and enough) by November to make a difference — a la 41 and the economy in '92.
On the other hand, another one of the points says that many Democrats, Kerry excepted, are pessimistic about the chances of a Dem winning or holding the White House.
If you read the article, you might get the opposite impression. These comments sound similar to the ones from "unnamed Democrats" we heard back in 1984 about Mondale.
The same guys who declared Gore the winner in Nov. 2000.
Bush is trending up, and the trend is your friend. Go ahead - relax and count your chickens, Kerry.
....and the other guy will win, of course.
I'm glad 70% of Americans aren't Lefties or FR would have to close shop.
I guess they all have short memories. It wasn't that long ago that Terry McAuliffe was promising big gains in the House and Senate, just before Republicans picked up seats in both!
LOL! So yes, Dems, settle in and get comfortable. You've got this one wrapped up. Terry says so. No need to sweat it.
My sense is that this election is going to violate a lot of what passes for conventional wisdom. These are not 'normal times'.
Kerry ranks very low on matters relating to 'trustworthiness'. Bush's early attacks on Kerry as a 'flip-flopper' really stuck. So I think that the undecideds may not break for the challenger in this case.
Finally, this election is event-driven. The calculus could change if there's another terrorist strike.
Only if they trust the challenger to step up and tackle the problem that concerns them. Kerry is not promising to do anything about the war on terror or any economic changes that would create jobs. The Democrats have fired all their nukes and Bush is still standing. As more people feel better about the economy, Kerry is gonna be a hard sell to the undecided voters.
Didn't think it was possible to write so much blather and not say anything! And I thought Howard Kurtz had the record for nonsense!
In June 1988, Mike Dukakis(*) was up by 14 points over GHW Bush.
In July 1988, Dukakis's lead increased to 17 points.
On Election Day 1988, GHW Bush beat Dukakis by over 7 points.
* - "kakistocracy" - Government by the worst people in the state.
For some reason, I can't bring up the site to read the rest of the article. [Perhaps my computer is revulsed at the thought of a visit to the alphabt networks.] Does it mention the big uptick in consumer confidence and the continually improving job market?
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