Posted on 06/27/2004 11:20:28 PM PDT by RussianConservative
Preview: University of Texas students and their counterparts across the country are giving up on computer sciences and engineering programs amid concerns about a soft job market and the loss of tech jobs to other countries.
Article:
University of Texas students and their counterparts across the country are giving up on computer sciences and engineering programs amid concerns about a soft job market and the loss of tech jobs to other countries. According to a new survey by the Computing Research Association, enrollment in computer technology and engineering dropped by 19 percent in 2003, and some industry experts warn of the consequences for America's global competitiveness if the trend continues.
At UT's Department of Computer Sciences in Austin, one of the top-rated programs, enrollment was down 25 percent in the fall of 2003 compared with the previous fall. That drop followed a 12 percent drop in 2002.
"We find it very shocking," said department Chairman J Strother Moore. "My belief is that there won't be enough people capable of doing this work."
Nationwide, enrollment in such programs soared during the tech boom and kept growing even after the dot-com crash in 2000. But it fell sharply in the 2002-03 academic year, the study said.
The number of newly declared majors in computer science also plunged 23 percent in 2003.
Enrollment at UT's Electrical and Computer Engineering Department fell 6 percent in 2003 but was up about 2 percent the year before.
However, most programs saw declines similar to those in computer sciences, said Stuart Zweben, chair of Ohio State University's computer and information science department, who directed research for the study.
Students are fleeing for a number of reasons, educators say, including worry over the growing trend of sending software work overseas, and worry about the U.S. economy, which has been slow to add high-paying technology jobs.
The unemployment rate last year was 5.2 percent for computer scientists and 6.2 percent for electrical engineers, both 20-year highs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"I have thought about changing my major," said Edward Mao, a UT computer sciences sophomore, who said law is one possibility. "You can't offshore patent law."
Technology experts worry that the decision by students to avoid computer science careers could jeopardize the country's future talent pool.
"If you don't have qualified workers in the United States, innovation isn't going to happen in the United States," said Matthew Kazmierczak, senior manager for research at the AeA, a technology trade group. "We need the risk-takers, the ones who are going to take on the new ideas. "
Also, when the economy does recover, there is the danger of a shortage of high-tech labor, as happened in the late 1990s.
"Employment reports that take into account the economic downturn still forecast job growth in technology over the next 10 years," Zweben said. "We're going to need skilled workers to fill those jobs."
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, for example, says software engineering jobs will be among the 10 fastest growing occupations through 2012.
The Computing Research Association's survey tracks enrollments at U.S. and Canadian universities granting doctorates in computer science. The number of undergraduates surveyed represents an estimated one-third of the total at all universities. Researchers say the findings are an accurate barometer of what's happening nationwide.
"There is a misconception that there are no jobs out there," said Moore, the UT chairman. "What is happening is that the skill mix is changing. In addition to having good problem-solving skills, you need to be able to talk to people. The challenge in our case is to educate people that are both technically superb and capable of communicating and willing to take risks."
To widen students' skills beyond routine coding, Moore's department encourages them to get involved earlier in its research program.
"Research teaches you how to take a chance. You need to actually teach that failure isn't bad if you learn something from it," he said.
Still, it's unlikely that this year's graduates will be as intensely recruited as their fellow alumni just a few years ago.
"We had companies come into classrooms and try to pay students to quit school and go to work," Moore said. "If your notion of a job in computing is you have 21 job interviews your senior year, that's not the case now. There are fewer jobs in computing, but there are fewer jobs in virtually every field."
Yasuko Watanabe, who will graduate in May with a UT computer science degree, has sent out some 35 résumés, but has a single job offer, from Sony Corp. in Japan.
"I can't believe how tough it is," Watanabe says. "I have friends who graduated in December, and they're still looking for jobs."
Quick! Get Algore o the case. He invented the internet.
So what. This lends to the higher wages for those computer
nerds. This is no crisis.
I advised my sons to avoid this field. They have some of the skills - enough to use the tools effectively, and to understand how to write simple programs and scripts, for instance. After I retired from IBM I did conulting and contract work, primarily focused on year-2000 preparation and upgrades, so I am familiar with the field.
But the process of keeping current is brutally demanding - the field changes so rapidly. In fact, I believe the amount of time needed for updates and education adds up to an average of two days each week. Of course, some weeks may keep you at work for 80 hours dealing with some crisis, while other weeks might find you off to who knows where to attend a class or seminar on some dead-end technology that your company is thinking about but will never adopt, while one or two nights a week will be spent at some college extension class working on an elusive advanced degree that you hope will give you a better shot at keeping your job during the next RIF (reduction in force).
Worst of all, you might get on the wrong horse. I am retired now, so the fact that the hardware and software product sets where I made my living is now a tiny, obsolete niche is not a problem, since I don't use it much teaching graduate managerial economics. The point is, I have oberved MANY hardware and software models arise over 40 years, and most of them have now disappeared from use, as will most of what we use the most of today. Figuring out where the world is going, and staying on the leading edge of that technology wave without getting thrown off the board is tough, and I'm glad I don't have to depend on doing that any more.
Beside, soon China and India play with all new technology and have R&D centers...once they get few more years experience and US loose it all....but lots of cheap credit.
I love that part of the job. It keeps things interesting.
Let me translate :
"My belief is that there won't be enough coolies capable of doing this work."
I enjoyed it when I was doing it, but it is a heavy burden, and you have to choose your path carefully or you will become specialized on a dead-end technology. Avoiding that trap is much more difficult than seems apparent - you need to improve your skills and knowledge continuously, which requires focus, but focus pulls you away from keeping up with the broad range of new products and paradymes that appear so frequently.
And technology changes things in unexpected ways - for instance, as the price of storage declines, along with the power it needs to operate, more data is kept readily available. "Mining" that collected data offers new insights into customer preferences, providing new sales opportunities. It requires new database management techniques, but they are developing as the need arises.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.