Right track/wrong track

Again today, I noticed a couple of talking heads discussing the election in terms of the "right track" or "wrong track" poll question, as if this single question were the sole indicator of the President's re-election prospects. In the past I think this might have been true. But times have changed, as well as circumstances, to the point that I now believe that this correlation was never more than mere coincidence.

Coincidence is simply two (or more) events or circumtances occurring close enough together that they appear to be associated in a non-random way. These occur frequently enough to keep our pattern-seeking mental faculties active, but in most cases we can recognize them as pure chance. For instance, my brother's son was born on his grandfather's birthday. This would have been highly portentious to our mother, whose hobby was astrology, but passed unnoticed by either of us for several years.

These random "indicators" are common enough to be a kind of sophisticated joke, such as the Super Bowl and hemline stock market indicators, or our national obsession with Groundhog Day as an indicator of anything of true value. But that is an improvement over sacrificing virgins in order to improve the harvest. However, meaningful correlation occurs only when there is a real element of causality, either from one such observation to another, or to a separate event or circumstance not previously considered. I believe that these commmentators and many others have fallen prey to the most common of all assumptions - that correlation equals causality.

First of all, the political situation has changed. It has become highly polarized, nasty, and personal. This fact in itself provides reason to answer this poll question negatively, even for many who strongly support the President and will work (and vote) for his reelection.

Second, voting pattern have changed. Gerrymandering has become a fine art, and few Congressional districts are actually competitive. Campaign directors have all learned the art of the negative ad, and the strong negative effect of these ads on voter turnout, which increases the influence of the most committed, partisan voters.

Third, the common media have become openly and blatantly partisan, with the major networks on one side attacking the republican administration in every posible way, and talk radio as the only national public forum on the other side. The internet provides access for both sides to get their messages out to smaller groups of partisans on both sides. The general public is buffeted by these crosswinds, but many of them will be turned off by the entire process and will simply not vote. Advantage? Hard to say, but probably a net plus for the administration.

I have now heard references to this question on four networks this morning, all emphasizing its portent. But I can state categorically that every week, when I fill out my Zogby internet poll, I have answered this question "wrong track" - and I WILL support and vote for President Bush.

"It is a paradox that in out time of rapid, drastic change, when the future is in our midst, devouring the present before our eyes, we have never been less certain about what is ahead of us. Our need for predictability is far more urgent than in times past, and we are addicted to forecasters and pollsters. Even when the forecasts are wrong we go asking for them. We watch our experts read their graphs the way the ancients watched their soothsayers read the entrails of a chicken."

A great many people are simultaneously saying our country is on the wrong track AND that they approve of President Bush's job performance. Necessarily, this means they do not hold the President responsible for everything, but judge his job performance only on what he is reasonably able to do. This is quite refreshing.

These are tough times. People are only now starting to come around to the turn-around in the economy. But, even though the economy is expanding, we still have many people either unemployed or currently holding an unsatisfactory job, looking for a job reasonably commensurate with their abilities and preferences. A person in such a predicament is likely to say our country is (still) on the wrong track, but President Bush has a good economic program that has gotten us out of a recession. We need to pray for, and encourage our fellow citizens in such predicaments.

Same thing with the War on Terror. It is not a pleasant task. It is, instead, an honorable duty. I am sure that many people say we are "wrong track" in Iraq, but - nevertheless - we have a job to do.

We're not yet to the point of "Morning in America." But, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. I am so proud of my country that we can see our way through, at a time like this. And, I am so proud of our many allies in the world, including the emerging government of Iraq, and the members of their police and security forces, standing up for what is right.

As for Kerry and his billionaire French wife ... the French were not there for us when we needed them. Tens of thousands of people have died, including some at the hands of torturers, because the French put their delusion of world leadership ahead of standing with the democratic nations of the world against evil.

But, when the chips were down, we and the coalition of the willing stood firm for the right. Yes, we have given the opportunity to be free to tens of millions of our fellow human beings. But, let's not kid ourselves, we did what we had to do, because they would be coming after us.

A great many people are simultaneously saying our country is on the wrong track AND that they approve of President Bush's job performance.

IMHO, to be meaningful, the question needs to be multiple choice:

Is the country

On the right track, thanks to both parties
On the right track, even though the Democrats are trying to derail it
On the right track, even though the Republicans are trying to derail it
On the wrong track, thanks to the Democrats
On the wrong track, thanks to the Republicans
On the wrong track, with both parties being equally responsible

I expect many people here would answer #4. The "wrong-track" question is usually intended to blame the incumbent President, but if people were allowed to cast blame I think many would cast it where it really lies.

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