FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Bush 47%, Kerry 40%, Nader 3%

Fox News/PollingReport ^ | 6.24.04

[ambrose]

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 22-23, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent candidate Ralph Nader?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision. Nader identified as Green Party candidate in 2/04 poll.
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	47	40	3	9	1
	6/8-9/04	42	42	3	12	1
	5/18-19/04	40	40	3	15	2
	4/21-22/04	42	40	2	14	2
	3/23-24/04	43	42	3	10	2
	2/18-19/04	43	42	4	9	2
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	48	42	8	2
	6/8-9/04	43	45	10	2
	5/18-19/04	42	42	13	3
	5/4-5/04	44	41	13	2
	4/21-22/04	43	42	12	3
	4/6-7/04	43	44	12	1
	3/23-24/04	44	44	10	2
	3/3-4/04	44	44	11	1
	2/18-19/04	45	45	9	1
	2/4-5/04	47	43	9	1
	1/21-22/04	49	42	8	1
	1/7-8/04	54	32	12	2
	7/03	54	35	8	3
	5/03	58	29	11	2
	12/02	57	29	12	2

[Dog]

Not really......the Harris poll had W up by 10...

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Great news. Bush's lead is on top or outside the 2XMOE range, either way you slice it, Nader or no Nader.

Kerry still not leading or tied in any poll that doesn't oversample Democrats by a big margin.

[adam_az]

"Nader 3%..Wow, he`s almost President practically! Now I know why he is running!"

That's 6x as much as the Libertarians got last election. ;)

[Pharmer]

Is there more to this poll? Approval numbers etc.

[Uncle Hal]

Any poll with Bush up by 7 points I will take and enjoy.

[BlackRazor]

The same poll has job approval/disapproval at 49-44. The last Fox poll had it at 48-45.

[AmishDude]

Hmmm. Might be statistical noise, but given that it's the same methodology and it shows such a jump gives hope. I'll feel better if they conduct another one soon.

[Owen]

What was the turnout model for this poll? What was the partisan mix sampled?

[AmishDude]

Look carefully at the numbers. The only differences between this and other polls are: (1) Nader is not a factor, (2) there is a large chunk of undecided who were pushed to Kerry in other polls. This is quite believable.

[JoeGar]

Meaningless. The poll is of "registered voters nationwide" -- not "likely voters" and not electoral votes.

[jveritas]

Foxnews/Opinion dynamic poll is the most trusted poll. Great news. Let us keep working very, very, hard.

[woodyinscc]

Kerry is cooked.

President Bush will get another bump, when the reins are turned over in Iraq. President Bush is controlling the events, despite the lame stream press. If the press continues on their present course, they will do so at their own peril. President Bush is knocking off two birds with one stone.

[My2Cents]

The Gipper Effect.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

But now there are -two- polls showing similar results. That means neither can just be casually dismissed as statistical bumps anymore.

Not really, there are even more

Only the bogus ABC/WaPo poll and the even more bogus LA Times poll in the last 3 weeks are showing a Kerry lead. EVERYONE else...Pew, Harris, Ipsos, IBD/TIPP, and now Fox is showing a Bush lead.

The naysayers need to get out more and find out what's really going on.

[genghis]

Why is anyone surprised?
economy humming, amazing success in Iraq (the deaths peaked 4/17)hand off on schedule
kerry just sucks- he is going down in history as the worst campaigner ever- yes worse than mike the tank, worse than i will raise your taxes walter.
vp- nobody can help him. I am loving every minute of this.
Having all those dems acting like it is 1968 helps enormously
having bill talk about the sink is great.
what could be better?

[gathersnomoss]

To quote What About Bob..."That's not good, that's not good".

Let's Roll!

[jveritas]

JoeGar

Foxnews/Dynamic polls is the most trusted. If President Bush is up among registered voters, he will fare even better among likely voters. Why? Because a larger % of registered republicans are likely to go to the polls and vote than that of Democrats.

Still, we must keep working very, very hard.

[r9etb]

Interesting. Looks like W picked up about half from the undecideds (good) and half from the Kerry voters (also good).

Assuming the poll sample is accurate, that's a very bad sign for JF'nK, who (obviously) picked up none of the undecideds.

[My2Cents]

The most recent Harris poll, showing Bush ahead of Kerry by 10%, looks less-and-less like an outlier. 51%-41% is within the MOE of this poll.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Well, the interesting thing is that Republicans typically fair worse in "registered voters" and better the closer to "likely voters" the poll gets.

Point on the electoral votes but typically the winner of the national vote, especially by a large margin, will win the EC.