FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Bush 47%, Kerry 40%, Nader 3%

Fox News/PollingReport ^ | 6.24.04

[ambrose]

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 22-23, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent candidate Ralph Nader?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision. Nader identified as Green Party candidate in 2/04 poll.
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	47	40	3	9	1
	6/8-9/04	42	42	3	12	1
	5/18-19/04	40	40	3	15	2
	4/21-22/04	42	40	2	14	2
	3/23-24/04	43	42	3	10	2
	2/18-19/04	43	42	4	9	2
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	48	42	8	2
	6/8-9/04	43	45	10	2
	5/18-19/04	42	42	13	3
	5/4-5/04	44	41	13	2
	4/21-22/04	43	42	12	3
	4/6-7/04	43	44	12	1
	3/23-24/04	44	44	10	2
	3/3-4/04	44	44	11	1
	2/18-19/04	45	45	9	1
	2/4-5/04	47	43	9	1
	1/21-22/04	49	42	8	1
	1/7-8/04	54	32	12	2
	7/03	54	35	8	3
	5/03	58	29	11	2
	12/02	57	29	12	2

[samadams2000]

Kerry will now panic and throw the long ball.

He is toast. Dukakis led Bush1 by 14% with 3 months to go. The media always skews it in favor of the demon.

This could be a walk. Historic..and the final nail for these losers. Maybe that will finally shut Gore up.

[Tennessean4Bush]

not electoral votes

Poll has state by state in 4-5 battleground states here. Most encouraging is FL where Bush is up 48-38

[Tennessean4Bush]

You probably did not believe the Harris poll a couple of days ago either, right?

[Salvation]

**Maybe that will finally shut Gore up.**

Wouldn't we all love to do that?

[SunkenCiv]

"Kerry still not leading or tied in any poll that doesn't oversample Democrats by a big margin." -- well said!

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[SunkenCiv]

The GWB team has done a terrible job at getting out a coherent message? Nah. They've been careful about spending the money ahead of the crunch period of the campaign, and have been doing the nuts and bolts kinds of things, basic get out the vote, build the organization operations for a good while now.

It's true that it doesn' t help to have the news media working as a 527 in favor of the Democretins, but that's as it always is. The fact that the 9/11 commission was disbelieved by 69 per cent of Americans shows that the media has been seen through.

Despite the face that Sarin gas shells have been found, that a gas centrifuge was excavated out of some guy's backyard, that the scientist who built Saddam's bomb has been living in the US in exile for a few years and wrote a book about the bomb project, and the fact that now we hear from UNMOVIC that Saddam moved his WMDs out of the country on the eve of the conflict and for a short while thereafter, the partisan media shills keep harping that there's no basis for the war.

That's a plus for GWB.

And we have Michael Moore regurgitating the lies that have been found for months or years on skinhead websites.

That's a plus for GWB.

Obviously GWB has improved his standing over last time, when he barely beat Gore the Amateur Liar, Gore the Windbag, Gore the Blowhard, Gore the Bore.

GWB will take Florida and Texas, will be competitive in California and may take it, and will wind up forcing Kerry to campaign way too hard in his solid states as well as California, where campaigns are not too cheap, and stretch him too thin in the states that are teetering.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[dangus]

Republicans haven't had a convention boost since 1988.

Convention boosts are for candidates who energize and excite their base, instead of attacking them.

[dangus]

>>Foxnews/Opinion dynamic poll is the most trusted poll. Great news. Let us keep working very, very, hard.<<

This poll is a welcomed seconding of the Harris Poll, which, next to Gallup, is the most respected poll. Fox News polls are notoriously worthless. The last time Fox News polls were worth anything, Zogby was doing them for New York. Since then, Zogby went national and lost his "juice," and Fox never found a good pollster.

[dangus]

Rasmussen cooks the books. THey don't poll, they make an educated prediction based on polling. There's a difference. Rasmussen used to kiss up to dittoheads, posting bihg Bush leads in 2000. Since then, they seem to be trying to woo over the other side of the fence.

[dangus]

I 'm a perverse optimist. I see a glass as half empty and say, "Hey, there's room for a lot more!"

Thus, OH and PA are EXECLLENT news for Bush... he's already up, in spite of the fact that OH and PA voters think the economy is doing terrible... That means he has a LOT of room to move up.

[dangus]

Don't blame the Spaniards. The idiot running for election blamed the Al Qaeda attacks on his domestic political opponents. Spaniards were rightly outraged. The unfortunate thing is that the Socialists benefitted.

[My2Cents]

I think you've nailed it. Actually, it's kind of a confluence of events: Reagan's funeral; continuing good economic news; naming of the interim Iraq government; Clinton raising his bloated head, reminding all of the swing voter what a loathsome toad he is, and reminding those voters that the Democrat Party has been reinvented in his image.

[KC_Conspirator]

Encouraging news.

[TomEwall]

I've been thinking that for awhile. That is, the economy is doing better than people perceive, so when people's perception comes more in line with reality, one should expect that would help Bush.

[AmishDude]

Well, there were reasons to believe the Basques were involved in the Madrid bombing (and it isn't clear that they weren't involved somehow). Most obviously, it wasn't a suicide bombing.

[TomEwall]

I don't think your analysis is correct. It depends on whether Kerry would rather save face or risk all to win.

If Kerry wants to save face, and it looks like he's losing, he'll campaign in the leaning Gore states to keep the final result respectable. However, if he wants to win, his plan has to be keep all the toss-up Gore states (OR, IA, WI, MN, NM) and flip a Bush state (probably either OH or MO). NH, MI, and PA are also states it makes sense for him to campaign in.

These are the crucial states which determine who wins. The others just determine the margin of victory. So if Kerry's objective is to win, and he doesn't care how much he loses by if he loses, he won't waste a lot of resources trying to hold on to states like New Jersey or California which, if he loses them, means he's lost the election anyway. He'd be better off just concentrating on the above states.

[FlipWilson]

Does this help?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1160094/posts

[dangus]

>>Well, there were reasons to believe the Basques were involved in the Madrid bombing (and it isn't clear that they weren't involved somehow). Most obviously, it wasn't a suicide bombing.<<

Let's just say the reasons were not strong enough to go campaigning on. From what I gather, there were stronger Al-Qaeda ties to Oklahoma City.

[SunkenCiv]

I wasn't assuming that Kerry was going to stand like a statue. He's on the ropes right now, whether he knows it or not, and I'm sure he does.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[POA2]

Not sure I follow your logic for a number of reasons -

First the notion that Kerry won't have the funds to compete throughout - the fact is 527's will run more ads for Kerry then Kerry or GWB will run for themselves -

ONE nursing union in NY has delegated over $35 million dollars ALONE to go against GWB and to electing Kerry - not one dime of this money will be spent in NY - it has been given to a 527's targeting 8 battle-ground States -

The fact is when DEM 527's are added in - Kerry will outspend GWB by over $125 million come Nov - AND THIS DOESN"T even take into account he free media by the nightly news programs (that's an extra $400 million there alone by NOV)

While I agree that most Americans are seeing through the 9-11 commission - I also think the media have been able to use it to hurt GWB as well - Just giving the impression that ALL our liars - (the fact is GWB and his team aren't - yet they've been able to be "painted" by the media as such).

My big gripe is - well, two things - 1. GWB supporting 527's have got to get funded - and funded at the same levels the DEM 527's are - at this point it is not even close - again they will outspend us by over $125+ million - That is kicking our as$ - period.

My othe gripe being the incoherent message being put out by the WH daily - they have no message - they never seem to be on the offensive - always responding and doing so incoherently - Though, I will say they have at least started to get better when it comes to the economy - but no where near up to speed like they should be - They need creative ways each day to get a new piece of good news on the economy out - everyday they should be touting another job creation, another statistic, etc -