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CLEVELAND (AP) — President Bush leads Democratic rival John Kerry in the key swing state of Ohio in a three-way matchup that includes independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader, a new poll shows. Republican Bush was at 47%, followed by Kerry at 41% and Nader at 3% among registered voters surveyed by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for The Plain Dealer. Results were released late Saturday. Nine percent of voters were undecided. Bush's lead came although about half in the poll expressed disapproval of his handling of the economy, found to be the No. 1 issue among Ohio voters. The state is one of several in the region to lose manufacturing jobs under Bush, while Kerry has made the jobs issue central to his White House campaign. These latest results come two weeks after an American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters found Kerry had edged ahead of Bush in the state, 49% to 42%, with Nader at 2%. Bush won Ohio in 2000 by 4.4 percentage points. The Mason-Dixon Polling telephone survey of 1,500 registered voters was conducted May 20-25, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Tremendous work. I appreciate the dispassionate statistical analysis.
I can't beleive that Kerry is ahead in any poll on the economy. The stock market is above 10,000 (a nearly 3000 point gain since Jan of '02), unemployment is at 5.6%, which is a figure that the clinton campaign was bragging about in 1996 and a figure that was touted in all the 'mainstream' media outlets at that time as a remarkable achievement by clinton's administration. Kerry has said nothing about his economic platform other than he plans to raise taxes and somehow create 10 million jobs in 4 years. I have yet to hear a follow up question to kerry asking him how exactly he plans to do this by over taxing the very people who would create these jobs. I guess the short answer is that they will all be newly created government jobs from which no one can be fired no matter how incompetent. But hey, those evil rich people (as well as the rest of us) will be paying higher taxes to keep those government coffers full, so everything will be fine. Be sure to practice your arabic if ketchup boy somehow wins the election.
You know, you're some kind of whiz kid. I love this!
Thank-you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You know, you're some kind of whiz kid. I love this!
Thank-you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dales -- Suppose the election is a 269-269 tie & thrown into the House. This would be the newly elected 2005 House, as I understand it.
Should that happen, whom do you think would have the advantage, Bush or Kerry?
(Just a guess, I realize.)
Thanks
Thanks again for all the hard work Dales.
I saw someone, John Gibson maybe, on Fox today interviewing ex-Senators Al D'mato and Torch. The interviewer said to Torch he knew how optimistic the Kerry people are. D'mato chimed in the President can still win the election.
What universer are they in? As far as I can see both FL and OH have made a turn for the president although OH is back in the toss up category. If Bush gets FL and OH, it is hard for me to find a combinnation of states that cause him to lose.
Since Dales "forgot" to include a question this week..allow me.....who does Hugh Hewitt, in his WorldNetDaily column, name as America's most astute analyst and commentator on all things related to polls.
Good Work!
Could you add me to your ping list?
Thanks.
Now I'm totally depressed. If the race is actually this close the media and the democRAT crooks will take it. Honest people have no chance any more.
Personally I find the betting odds on www.tradesports.com ( which equal the London bookmaker odds ) more persuasive. Polls can lie, but when people bet money they are serious!
When you go to the individual state breakdowns, the margin for the first two states are incorrect. In NH, you have Bush winning the last Zogby poll although the numbers are for Kerry. The next state has Kerry +4 when it should be +7.
Although there's a lot of time before November, what concerns me is the weakness Bush shows in New Hampshire and West Virginia.
The state of the steel industry in WV is obviously costing him support but NH is another story. Given the GOP advantage in that state, I'm wondering why Bush is struggling there.
Let's say that Bush loses WV. He needs to pick up a state somewhere else. I'm looking at some of the other states (Iowa, Oregon, etc) and I see those tilting towards Kerry at the end.
For the first time, I'm not feeling very optimistic about the election.
Overall, with 2 Bush states NH and WV sitting in Kerry's column, he has to win all his column plus OH and at least one other state. On that note, since Bush is leading in OH about as much as he is in FL, I wonder why its in the Tossup category.
If Kerry wins all the states that lean to him and wins all the toss up states that went to gore in 2000 and if bush does the same, you get Kerry 269, and Bush 269.
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This is one HELLUVA breakdown !!!! Incredible work , and I'll be reading this over and over for a few weeks !! (just to comprehend it all !) Thanks !
Do you maintain a ping list for these nice summaries? If so, please add me.....
I always look forward to your analysis and the clarity of the tables... thank you!