[Republic If You Can Keep It]

Dales -- Suppose the election is a 269-269 tie & thrown into the House. This would be the newly elected 2005 House, as I understand it.

Should that happen, whom do you think would have the advantage, Bush or Kerry?

(Just a guess, I realize.)

Thanks

[Lunatic Fringe]

In an election thrown to the house, each state gets one vote.

Bush by a wide margin.

[Dales]

Well, let's see.

Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming would all go for Bush. That's 24.

Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Massachusettes, Maryland, Maine, North Dakota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington would go Kerry. That's 11.

Connecticut has only a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are more likely to pick up 1 than lose 1, so it goes Kerry giving him 12.

Illinois has a 1 seat Republican edge, but at an eyeball glance I don't see any that we are going to lose, so that's 25 for the good guys.

Missouri is another where we have a 1 seat edge. But none of our guys appears too vulnerable. 26.

North Carolina is another. Again I don't see any losses. 27.

New Jersey is a 1 seat edge for the Democrats and we won't gain ground. 13.

West Virginia has a 1 seat Democrat edge that they should hold. 14.

Louisiana we have a 1 seat edge. Tauzin's seat is vulnerable for us, but on their side both Alexander's seat and Johns' seats are.

Minnesota has an even split and probably will after the election.

Mississippi has an even split and probably will after the election.

New Mexico we have a 1 seat edge but could possibly lose it.

Nevada has a 1 seat Republican edge but we could possibly lose it.

Oregon has a 2 seat Democrat edge but two of their incumbents are vulnerable.

South Dakota depends on the Herseth/Diedrich rematch. Whichever party wins that would get it.

Tennessee has a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are not going to lose it.

Wisconsin has a split delegation, but Democrat Ron Kind is vulnerable.

So I see it as 27-14 with 9 states that either would deadlock or could be decided on election day. If it goes to the House, we win.

[staytrue]

Suppose the election is a 269-269 tie & thrown into the House. This would be the newly elected 2005 House, as I understand it. Should that happen, whom do you think would have the advantage, Bush or Kerry?

Bush in a landslide. The house votes by state. The CA house delegation gets 1 vote as does the Utah delegation. However, the house could be pressured to vote for the popular vote winner.