Posted on 06/16/2004 1:55:48 PM PDT by .cnI redruM
For every election since Martin Luther King Jr. endorsed John F. Kennedy, black voters have voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party. It's not just coincidence that leads GOP activists and even some individuals outside the Republican Party to urge George W. Bush to attempt to connect with African-American voters. Several reasons factors collude to make this so practical that it almost becomes imperative.
These reasons include the likelihood that Election 2004 will prove very close, the high concentrations of African-Americans in several large states that pollsters project to be toss-ups (e.g. Florida, Ohio), the rise of powerful African-Americans in the GOP ranks, and finally there is the Democratic Candidate President Bush faces in the election. If it were possible for a major candidate to bleach himself whiter than I am, Senator Kerry has actually managed.
The newest election polls auger a tight finish. Electoral vote counts currently show incumbent George W. Bush with anywhere from 175 - 225. Senator Kerry is polling within a range of 190 to 285. This suggests the President has fallen slightly behind his challenger and needs to get on his horse and ride.
The question becomes one of where should he ride. There are fewer undecided voters in most surveys than during past election campaigns. The average voter has decided and those decisions are running at close to a 50-50 split. The President cannot pull well ahead of his opponent unless he changes the electoral dynamics. Going into a solid Democratic Party bailiwick and carving out even a small niche of his own would change the game in his favor.
This would particularly hold true in states such as Florida, Michigan, Virginia and Ohio. Each state carries at least 12 Electoral Votes and each state has an African American population that exceeds the national median as a percentage of the overall state population. If Bush could carry about 25% of the African-American vote in all four of those states, he would improve his performance in each location by 1.5 to 2 percent.
People say these things every election cycle, and each time in the past they have been true, but not actionable. This time, however, important things have changed. President Bush has entrusted some of the most important functions of the Legislative Branch to African-American Secretaries.
Democratic Presidents may include a certain quota of African-Americans to produce a cabinet that looks like America. President Bush has placed General Powell and Dr. Rice in positions where they actually make important decisions about America. If Colin Powell were Secretary of State in a Democratic Administration, this would have been advertised far and wide as a Civil Rights triumph.
In a Republican administration, there is no need to advertise. If an African-American carries an impressive portfolio of personal and professional achievements and has the President's endorsement, the assumption is that that person can perform. No special status need be attached to that individual's race.
Intelligent African-Americans will sense the obvious difference. Republicans assume properly-qualified blacks should hold responsible positions, the Democrats feel we all should still be amazed when a black professional lands a top-flight job. Mature adults don't require adulation for doing what is required of them at their jobs. They are smart enough to realize that high expectations are a compliment. That, right there, should swing a certain number of votes in the direction of George Bush.
Then there is the candidate attempting to unseat President Bush. The man makes me wonder whether his chemical treatments involved Botox or Chlorox. He has no sense of what motivates anybody who isn't Caucasian, professional and worth over $40 million. He has held the African-American community at arm's length. He wants their votes, he wants their swag, but he doesn't want them around to lower his property values.
John Kerry embodies limousine liberal condescension. He wants to help African-Americans, but he seems to want to wash after he shakes hands with one. He campaigns to them like an over-eager Peace Corps volunteer. He loves them to death as long as they accept his implicit superiority and stay in their place. This has grated.
President Bush should open shop in several traditionally black communities. When extremely liberal activists such as Bakari Kitwana are inviting Ralph Nader to speak because the Democrats don't seem to care, that is a sign that portions of the African-American vote have gone back in play. Even making the Democrats condescend to a few extra visits to their fiefdoms would take away a little more time and money from their campaigns.
The Bush campaign will probably still fail to crack 20% nationwide among African-Americans. Some of his own supporters will prove crass enough to suggest that any time and money spent in black America neglects the GOP base. He should ignore this chorus of doubt and campaign to African-Americans anyway. He should know John Kerry will win the overall popular vote if Bush wins no better than 8% of the black vote.
I was listening to a recent talk show host, Chris Core, discuss a poll in which W was likely to garner less black votes than Bob Dole. He spoke to how blacks have the same values as conservatives but yet will vote en mass for the democratic candidate. He devoted a whole segment of his show to this topic and asked blacks in specific to call in and explain it to him and his listeners.
The calls he got produced no real answers. So...
I would say that George Bush should just do the right thing for the country like he's doing now (with certain spending exceptions) and let the black vote fall where it may.
The vote that he does need to concern himself about is the FEMALE vote.
Females have taken us down before and can, and will, do it again.
Don't forget the transgendered midget crippled vote...
Geesh.
I hate identity politics.
School Vouchers could be the issue through which the GOP could reach out to African Americans. How hard can it be to convince them that Public Schools are failing them. Cleveland in the contested state of Ohio would be the ideal place to reach out. They already know the GOP was on their side during the Supreme Court showdown.
I've always considered our current President to be concerned about all Americans regardless of ethnicity. A leader doesn't turn aside to every voice that howls, "Do this! Do that!" I'm happy to let him wrestle with the big picture and things that matter most.
This is a tad bit off center re: this article but:
I'VE SUGGESTED FOR MONTHS THAT THE GOP NEEDS TO FLUSH KERRY OUT ON WHERE HE STANDS ON REPARATIONS FOR DESCENDANTS OF SLAVES. IF HE'S FOR IT, HE ALIENATES MILLIONS OF INDYS AND DEMS. IF HE IS AGAINST IT, HE PISSES OF A LOT OF BLACK PEOPLE WHO MIGHT NOT VOTE FOR THE PREZ BUT THEY'LL STAY HOME ON ELECTION DAY.
It's a win/win for the Prez and a lose/lose for JFK.
Pray for W and Our Awesome Troops
IMHO the reason why the Republicans have failed to make any inroad among blacks is that they keep trying to offer blacks more of the same. Are Democrats bribing blacks to stay on the plantation? Then Republicans will join in the bribery.
This just doesn't work. There's no way the Republicans are going to convince blacks that they are going to fill the feed troughs any fuller than the Democrats.
Instead, Republicans should appeal to blacks' self interest and best instincts. They should speak much louder the view that Republicans are in business to help blacks help themselves. They should appeal to black Christians not to support abortion and perversion. They should speak out against black "ministers" who are nothing but poverty pimps, as Mayor Koch called them. What kind of a Christian minister is Jesse Jackson?
Above all, Republicans need to enlist smart black ministers and business people to join the party and move things forward. Democrats treat blacks with condescension. Republicans have to treat them as valued equals.
Sermon finished.
For George Bush to go out of his way for the black vote is a waste of time, Blacks who are intelligent enough to vote for Bush will vote for him any way and those who follow the Dems stupidly will vote against.
Bush does not need to prostrate himself before blacks those who are against him will see it as pandering, I would to.
Sermons not finished till you get an amen
AMEN!
I can agree with most of that. I certainly wasn't suggesting a second Operation Push. it's just that the GOP isn't even present in most urban minority neighborhoods. That needs to change if the GOP will ever have a chance in states that include really major cities.
Actually it's not off center. He could ask people if they really need reparations, or just freedom to move.
What surprises me is that this has not taken place all along. What bothers me is the indoctrination so prevalent in public schools, and that certain segments of the population are given to entrust their ultimate well being to anyone other than themselves and God.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.