Bush's Good Week (Bush likely winner in Nov. - James J. Zogby)

Al-Jazeerah ^ | June 8, 2004 | James J. Zogby

[af_vet_1981]

James Zogby and John Zogby (the pollster) are two different Zogbys..

They are brothers. They share the same parents and the same goals.

[BlackRazor]

President Reagan won 50.3% of the vote but won 45 states in his first election (that's 90% of the states).

Reagan was held to only 50.8% because 3rd party candidates got over 8% of the vote in 1980. Otherwise Reagan would have been well over 50%. Carter only got 41.0%, so Reagan had almost a 10-point advantage over him.

[Positive]

"Reagan was held to only 50.8% because 3rd party candidates got over 8% of the vote in 1980. Otherwise Reagan would have been well over 50%. Carter only got 41.0%, so Reagan had almost a 10-point advantage over him."

My point was that the percentage of the popular vote doesn't necessarily correlate to the electoral vote.

According to your numbers (I still think President Reagan got 50.3%) the most President Reagan could have gotten was 59% of the popular vote - and he did indeed win 90% of the states and around 80% of the electoral votes (of course he did win California).

[Salvation]

I thought Zogby was saying that Kery would win.......what has changed his mind?

President Reagan's passing?

[Salvation]

Humor or is this the Arab side of the news?

[wrathof59]

That's a reason in itself to be overjoyed, Alleluia!

[BlackRazor]

My point was that to score a huge electoral college victory of the magnitude of 1980, you would need to also have a substantial win in the popular vote. You seemed to indicate that Bush could win 47 states this year and still lose the popular vote. While that is theoretically true, it's not practically possible. For it to happen, Bush would simultaneously have to experience a near-total collapse in all the dark red states while at precisely the same time surge to narrow wins in most of the dark blue and all of the battleground states.

[MikeA]

"The challenger is not charismatic and not a national hero."

Give Bush this key. Kerry is neither charismatic nor considered by anyone other than partisan Democrats to be a "national hero." The lie has come off that claim with Kerry's Vietnam commanders and comrades in arms saying he's unfit to be president and with it now appearing he was claiming Purple Hearts for scratches to get out of 'Nam early. And Kerry is about as charismatic as a lump of Play Doh. You can pretty well consider that in fact Bush has 9 of Lichtman's keys, not just 8.

[Milligan]

Nice news but we have to work to get President Bush re-elect. No napping!

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Que? So much for the 'Kerrys race to lose' nonsense.

Oh I get it, he's trying to jinx it for Bush. That makes sense. LOL, someone tell the handwringers on the Gallup thread. Bush's approval numbers are going back up...about a 5% bounce already, which I predicted, and I predict another 5% bounce in the next week or 2.

[ModelBreaker]

6. Per capita economic growth is improving;

7. The Administration effected major policy changes;

How are these not factors for Bush? No question we are booming in the economy--gross and per capita. And, the tax cuts and the preemptive defense doctrine clearly qualify as major policy changes.

[pctech]

Let's not forget folks. We still have the debates coming up after the conventions are all over.

There's no way Bush will lose any of those debates. Especially since Kerry is so short tempered, all he has to do is piss him off and get "flipped" off just once. Once that happens, Kerry is toast.

Still, with world conditions the way they are and the way international terrorists want Bush to lose, there's always the outside chance that a major terrorist strike could cost Bush big time. Every Freeper needs to be on his knees praying that our President gets re-elected.

[gathersnomoss]

Aren't you getting them confused with Siskle and Ebert? My head hurts.

[hershey]

If you catch even a minute here and there of the nightly news that doesn't deal with RR's death, what you hear is Europe tripping all over each other to line up with whatever Bush wants. Someone mentioned this last night on FR. That the big shots in Europe know Kerry's an 'empty suit' and doesn't stand a chance. They will have to deal with Bush for another four years and they might as well get on with it. I bet Kerry's handlers have figured out why the news from the G-8 summit and even from the Iraqi council (militias disbanding), is falling Bush's way. I wonder when the RATs will decide not to throw good money after bad and stop funding Kerry's campaign to the hilt. Enough to keep him going, but what the heck, he's going to lose anyway. Better invest in senate races.

[watchin]

I agree - I assume it's just very poorly worded. How could the incumbent party NOT be the current president? Maybe the word "candidate" should replace "president"?

[festus]

Good gracious they're mulitplying !!!!