Posted on 06/03/2004 1:47:27 PM PDT by Stoat
The London-based Jane's Intelligence Digest has warned that the al-Qaida terrorist network and its international affiliates are probably stronger today than they were in 2001. The authoritative publication says the question, unthinkable in the aftermath of 9/11, is relevant today, namely whether al-Qaida is winning the war. It concedes that for many people in the West, the question is provocative and even outrageous, since they argue that the US and its allies hold the moral high ground and possess the resources and determination to defeat this terror network, reports the Daily Times.
According to Jane's, the invasion of Afghanistan and the ousting of the Taliban regime has denied the al-Qaida access to training camps that they operated under state protection.
"However, while there are elements of truth in the above assertion, the overall progress made by the anti-terrorist coalition is extremely limited compared to the mounting evidence that popular support for Osama bin Laden's group and its ideology is, in fact, growing stronger," says Jane's.
According to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the loss of Afghanistan as a training ground for its recruits has not stopped the al-Qaida from fully reconstituting itself, and setting its sights firmly on the US and its closest Western allies in Europe.
The IISS Strategic Survey 2003/04 also warns that al-Qaida "must be expected to keep trying to develop more promising plans for terrorist operations in North America and Europe."
The authors of the report suggest that there is a potential for weapons of mass destruction to be used by the group.
According to estimates quoted by the IISS, al-Qaida is active in over 60 countries and may have as many as 18,000 'potential terrorists' at its disposal," reported Jane's.
Sounds like nothing backs up the statement that Al Queda is stronger or winning, and the possibility they will use a WMD is obvious.
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- International acts of terror in 2003 were the fewest in more than 30 years, according to the U.S. State Department's annual terrorism report released Thursday.
The Patterns of Global Terrorism report said 190 acts of international terrorism occurred in 2003 -- a slight drop from 198 attacks the previous year and the lowest total since 1969.
The figure marked a 45 percent decrease in attacks since 2001...
http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/04/29/terror.report/
Ok, so where are they training now?
If it's based on anything at all, that is.
I gathered from the article that Jane's is making the case that according to their research, the number of willing Jihadist terrorists has grown to 18,000 over 60 countries.
It's natural that the focused war on terror has tended to galvanize allegiances, and of course the madrassas spending decades churning out hate-filled children who know nothing but seething anger for the West has had an effect. However, although these numbers may have increased since 2001 I don't think that it will have any impact over the ultimate outcome of this war, which will be victory for the sane cultures of the world.
I've heard those numbers too and it's definitely great news and I hope that it remains a trend.
Perhaps the numbers of committed Jihadists that Jane's is citing in their report are not quite so committed after all?
Perhaps it's the difference in reporting methods and statistical sampling used in recent years.
I think they forgot to subtract the dead ones.
the part about their organizational strength is nonsense. however, those WMDs from Iraq went someplace - into whose hands, we can't be sure.
I thought that it's a report worth taking note of because of it's source. I agree that Al-Queda is losing and that's what makes this story newsworthy....strange stuff coming from such a respected source.
Good point :-)
I guess our only choice is to stop confronting them, that way their numbers will dwindle to the point that they can't hurt us :)
I agree it's a weird story, that's the reason why I posted it.
Strange stuff coming from Jane's, who are often cited as a tremendously authoritative source.
Winning Iraq has in my eyes nothing to do with winning the war on terror though...Iraq was and is a conventional war.
Terrorism cannot be stopped by invading a country or two or three countries, because terrorism diefies the idea of state nation or law. That is way it is terrorism...
Therefore I believe that Jane's numbers are interesting as it is a good indicator ad to how much needs to be done especially in terms of more strategic tools to be imployed in this war.
Details, details.
Socialist Europe has a morbid fascination with self-defeat.
ummmmm....NO! :-)
State sponsorship of terror, however, is a major factor. Outlaw states such as the former Iraq under Hussein, Iran, Syria, etc. use the brainless Jihadists as proxy mercenaries to create destabilization.
Since the Jihadists don't wear the uniforms of a particular country but instead profess action as a result of ideology, rogue states can secretly fund these bastards while claiming not to be involved.
That's one of many reasons why I'm so pleased that our President is going after the money sources and the State sponsors....without funding, these nutburgers will have nothing more to do than to stand in the desert and scream at us, which is fine with me. :-)
Not quite. There's no basis for using the words "grown to" or "increased" in connection with that number 18000. The number 18000 comes from a (silly, actually) calculation which came out a week or so ago, that goes like this: (1) some 20000 terrorists were known to have gone through AQ training camps in Afghanistan at some time or another, up until we invaded; (2) we only killed about 2000 of them in the Afghanistan war, thus (3) 18000 remain, somewhere in the world.
By standard use of the English language that would mean AQ has "shrunk" not "grown". Not that I buy that arithmetic in the first place mind you.
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