[Dales]

Ping

[JulieRNR21]

The answer is Missouri........do I get a prize?

[goodnesswins]

Oregon's a TOSSUP????? HHMMMMMM....

[Dan from Michigan]

I think this is going to go right down to the wire.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

My guess would be Oregon.

[Dan from Michigan]

Quiz answer - New Mexico?

[RedBloodedAmerican]

Quiz answer: Puerto Rico?

[Southack]

The extra polling attention in Alabama was probably due to our ousted State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore.

He put 4 of his aides onto our Primary ballot, dividing Conservative opinion greatly (conservatives are upset that an unelected federal judge removed Justice Moore, and they are upset that several Republicans followed the law in the process).

But as of yesterday, Moore is no longer a factor. President Bush won the Republican primary here yesterday, so even the most radical of Moore supporters can't hope to become Moore delegates to the Republican convention in NYC this year. Only 1 of Moore's aides won their primary races...Parker beat Jean Brown, a Republican Justice who voted to send Moore to a judicial review.

This will pacify 90% of Moore's supporters. They'll now concentrate on getting their Republican Justice to beat their Democratic state supreme court competition...putting everyone back inside the Big Tent again.

Life is good.

As such, interest will now wane from Washington, D.C. about a potential split among Conservatives in Alabama.

Or put another way, I doubt that you see so much polling activity here anytime soon.

[AntiGuv]

This week's quiz: Since 1948, one state has gone every time to the candidate who won the national popular vote. Which?

Oh, how quickly it seems the classic swing state national barometer of Delaware has been forgotten! Speaking of which, where's the Bush/Kerry Delaware polls this year?!?

[AntiGuv]

States in most dire need of Bush/Kerry match-up polling:

#1 Virginia
#2 Delaware
#3 Georgia

[Barlowmaker]

Quiz Answer: California

[jdege]

I've always felt that the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's polling isn't inept, it's intentionally fraudulent.

Meanwhile, there's serious grass-roots disaffection among the outstate DFL, in Minnesota. And as I've said, the MNGOP has been engaged in a precinct-level organizing for the last three years that's unprecedented.

I truly don't think the DFL is going to win, here. If this was a state where the sort of systemic fraud you see in some states was accepted, perhaps. But the election judges are old-time Humphrey Democrats, mostly, and they simply won't put up with it.

[Congressman Billybob]

Not only is your statistical work excellent, you also write clear, lucid prose. You ought to be making a living for your meta-analysis. Do you have any clue why Rasmussen is off the reservation?

Congressman Billybob

Latest Article, "Why Bush's War College Speech Fell Flat"

[Congressman Billybob]

Excuse me, I said Rasmussen in my post to you. Should have said Zogby. In answer to your question about the excess polling in Alabama, folks were probably trying to measure the coattails of former Chief Judge Moore -- he had followers in several races in the primaries.

John / Billybob

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Rasmussen's poll, which was conducted over the entire month of May, validates the Mason-Dixon poll which was taken towards the end of May. The race could be tied, or Bush could have a small lead, or another possible reading of this data is that earlier in the month Kerry had an advantage and later in the month Bush did to where overall Bush came out ahead by an amount inside the margin of error. Which read is correct, only time will tell. However, there is nothing here to change the designation away from where it stands, which is Slight Advantage for Bush.

Actually, wasn't Ohio in Kerry's column last week? I think it was, so this is a shift back to Bush.

And a welcome one.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Rasmussen is reporting a 49-41 Kerry lead in California and a 55-38 Bush lead here in Texas. Looks like another poll is coming out today, too.

[TaxRelief]

Aren't the dems supposed to be blue? (Iowa likes to fit in with the popular group!)

[Doctor Stochastic]

A Monte Carlo based on the %s in the table gives Bush an 88% to 12% chance of winning. Expected total is 311 to 227,

Caveats: I copied the table wrong (likely); the program is wrong (no); the numbers in the table aren't stable (likely); my assumptions are wrong (possibly, I assume independence of states).

I ignored the undecided and arbitrarily took a 4% MOE.

[LS]

Doing this from memory, but it appears that gradually Kerry is losing strength in his "strong" and "leaning" states, with more moving into the "tossup" category. All Bush needs now is just ONE of the "biggies,"---Michigan or PA---and few like Iowa or NM or MN to move, and it starts to become a landslide.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Since 1948, one state has gone every time to the candidate who won the national popular vote. Which?"

---

Delaware.