Posted on 06/02/2004 9:34:43 AM PDT by Josh in PA
Polls Give Canada's Conservatives a Shot at Power
By Randall Palmer
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Opinion polls ahead of the June 28 election are making Canada's Conservatives believe they have a real shot at forming the country's next government after spending a decade in the political wilderness.
Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals remain ahead in the polls, but by four or five percentage points instead of 20 to 30 points of the past several years. The polls are also showing that a solid majority of Canadians say it is time for change.
"A Liberal minority is possible. A Conservative minority is also possible," pollster Jean-Marc Leger said as a new survey for Sun Media on Wednesday put support for the Liberals at 35 percent and the Conservatives at 30 percent.
That echoed an Ipsos-Reid poll on Monday night that had the spread at 34 percent to 30 percent.
If those numbers stick, neither of the two main parties would win enough seats for a parliamentary majority. But they could form a government with the backing of one or two smaller parties -- the left-leaning New Democratic Party or the Bloc Quebecois, which wants independence for French-speaking Quebec.
The figures have shaken the Martin campaign, with the prime minister conceding for the first time on Tuesday that voters might not accept his message.
Martin pushed out Jean Chretien as Liberal leader in November and took over as prime minister in December, causing sharp divisions inside the party. A tax rise last month by the Liberal government in the province of Ontario, which violated a preelection promise, has also hurt Liberal prospects.
Conservative leader Stephen Harper suggested on Wednesday the latest turn of events was not surprising.
"You had a government with a crumby record. You had an unpopular prime minister who was replaced by an internal coup. That leads to all kinds of problems down the road," he said in an interview on a Toronto sports radio station.
Vote-rich Ontario will be the key battleground in the election, and the Leger poll put the Liberals just ahead of the Conservatives there at 38 percent to 36 percent.
The Liberals got almost a clean sweep of Ontario seats in the last federal election in 2000 but the Conservatives now stand to take perhaps 40 or more of the 106 Ontario seats.
The idea of a minority government has led to questions about whether the smaller parties might end up with too strong a role.
Harper said he would not form a formal alliance with any party. "We're not going to do anything that jeopardizes the future of the country," he said.
"Minorities -- Bloc/NDP balance of power -- it's not a great thing for the country," Harper conceded. "That said, a bad majority government's pretty bad too, and I think four more years of this (Liberal) government is going to be taking us in the wrong direction."
The idea of cooperation with the Bloc, whose ultimate goal is to break up Canada, drew an editorial warning from the Globe and Mail newspaper: "Mr. Harper should remember the adage that he who sups with the devil needs a very long spoon. The question is: How much is his party prepared to swallow?"
The people of Quebec will never vote for separation. They never have and never will.
"believe they have a real shot" ..... this will be the ONLY shot heard in Gun Ban Canada.
FYI, the Tories want to ditch the Firearms Registry...
Independence, no matter how much the PQ and BQ tout it, won't happen for a simple reason: By separating from Canada, they'd give up their right to suck from Ottawa's teat, and the gravy train would be stopped, and their idiotic "French-only" programs would go bankrupt.
So they find more practical to make a hollow statement on Quebec sovereignty, but they don't follow their word on carrying it out.
They're all parasites, French after all.
Your post requires several presumptions. I don't know enough about Canadian politics to assert their veracity, but I thought I would point them out:
1. Bloc Quebecois is a liberal (big-government) party.
2. Quebec gets more from the "federal" government than they give.
3. The cost of bilingualism is lower than the cost of separation.
My understanding is that BQ's largest opposition party in Quebec is the Liberals. THat would mean that Quebecois independence would tip the balance of power more to conservatives. Or is my initial supposition incorrect?
1. Bloc Quebecois is a liberal (big-government) party.
As long as it's advantageous to their purposes. If big government benefits other parts of Canada, they'll oppose it.
2. Quebec gets more from the "federal" government than they give.
Which is a Liberal-NDP ploy to keep Quebec within Canada. See the sponsorship scandal for details.
3. The cost of bilingualism is lower than the cost of separation.
And that's why the BQ/PQ doesn't really want separation. Just more gummint money.
Guns are not banned in Canada. Sneak into my house at night if you want proof. The Libs passed a law requiring all long guns to be registered, and it failed miserably. Harper will repeal the Registration Law if elected.
That's what happens when the feds take away your fishing industry, shipping industry, control of your own resources, etc.
The Bloc Quebecois is socialist in philosophy as well as being sovereigntist. They would not be a good fit for either the Conservatives or the Liberals. And the Liberals for all their faults, are federalists before they will accept a coalition with a political party that wants to break the country up. Canada is looking at two choices June 28th: either a majority Conservative government or a Liberal/NDP coalition government. I suspect though if its the latter, Canada can probably expect a new round of elections in less than a year.
The federal Liberals in Quebec are big spenders. Ironically, the federal Liberals will probably lose all their last few French-speaking ridings in the province due to the huge unpopularity of the provincial Liberals, led by Jean Charest, which are conservative and have no connection with the federal governing party.
During the last few years, you are very correct. The vast majority of people in Quebec do not want separation. But remember in the last referendum, the federalist won by no more that ... 0.1 or 0.2 percent.
I remember that night - watching the TV and watching the vote come in - then at the end watching the Premier of Quebec screaming it was the immigrants fault for voting for the federalist system.
The RCMP is a relatively small force in Quebec since it has its own Provinical and municipal police forces like Ontario.
If it happened, I suspect the Quebec Government would move as quickly as possible to make itself a soverin nation and estabish certain things such as militaries etc. English Canadian provinces would likely not be wanting to stomach a fight and they would all enter into some sort of economic union with Quebec - keep the same currency etc. What would happen to the federal government? Likely a sucessful vote of non confidence would occur in the House of Commons and the federal government would fall. This would leave the remaining 9 provinces and 3 territories determining what they would want to do.
hawk
I'll believe it when I see it. Most Canucks are clueless socialists.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.