Posted on 05/30/2004 8:52:35 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie
Al-Qaeda is changing its tactics. After targeting Western expatriates and security forces in the first phase of its terrorist attacks in the Kingdom, it has now turned its attention to oil companies and could later go for urban guerrilla war as part of its strategy to destabilize the Kingdom, according to a Saudi political scientist.
Dr. Abdullah Al-Otaibi, assistant professor of political science at King Saud University, told Arab News the May 1 attack on a petrochemical complex in Yanbu followed by Saturday’s shootout in Alkhobar’s APICORP Compound showed a consistent pattern.
Al-Qaeda terrorists “are out to strike against the Kingdom’s oil infrastructure and also Western expatriates manning those facilities as part of their sinister game to cripple the Saudi economy,” said Dr. Al-Otaibi, who has been monitoring various websites with Al-Qaeda links.
He said the websites provided an insight into the Al-Qaeda leadership. “It is pretty clear they are well-educated and shrewd in their thinking. They are taking calculated steps aimed at crippling the economy. And to win support for their cause, they are always putting their own spin on Qur’anic verses.”
“These leaders are brainwashing the youth,” he said. “That’s why those involved in the shootout were young Saudis.”
Dr. Al-Otaibi said the May 1 attacks on the ABB Lummus complex resulted in casualties among its employees and exodus of the remaining 90 ABB expatriate staff. The shooting at APICORP, the investment arm of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, was intended to achieve the same goal — drive away the Western expats operating oil facilities.
The target was carefully chosen. Located in the compounds nearby were Royal Dutch Shell Group, Total SA and Saudi Aramco, Lukoil Holdings of Russia and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.
The devastating attacks may lead to the imposition of what The Economist has called “terror premium”, which, according to oil traders, may be as high as $8 of the current per barrel price.
The strikes at economic targets resemble the strategy of the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka — to paralyze the economy of the country and sow seeds of panic among the people.
Dr. Al-Otaibi said he did not think a solution was in sight. “It’s a serious situation that calls for strong security measures within the framework of a comprehensive action plan.”
He said alongside military measures, the government will also have to put educational reforms in place, focusing especially on textbooks.
But the government faces a dilemma, he said. “Rushing through the educational reform program would be tantamount to acting under pressure from the Americans and these terrorists. So, understandably, the government does not want to be seen acting that way.”
Dr. Al-Otaibi suggests a greater degree of press freedom “both in the interest of the government and the people. Already, we are seeing some critical comments in the Arabic press. It’s a healthy trend, which needs to be encouraged.”
Asked about the degree of support Al-Qaeda enjoys among Saudis, he said that while a section of the population is sympathetic, others are indifferent. “Their attitude seems to be: ‘Why should I worry? The fight is between them and the government,’” Dr. Al-Otaibi said.
Al-Qaeda was for the time being trying to exploit the situation created by the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, he said. But nonetheless the Bush administration should try to be even-handed in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. “The US government’s stand is seen to be totally biased in favor of the Israelis. This is whipping up strong anti-American sentiments among the people. Al-Qaeda is just exploiting the situation,” he added.
Saudi Arabia needs to liberalize. The problem with moving to an open society is it encourages the enemies of freedom to strike harder. A freer Saudi Arabia will be better equipped in the long-run to hold off the Al Qaeda terrorists than a closed theocratic society run for the benefit of a handful of families. One way or another, the House Of Saud is living on borrowed time.
If al-quaeda wins and takes over the government of Saudi Arabia how long do you think it would take for the US to roll over them like in Iraq?
What president would have the stones to do it?
Another reason to vote for W.
All Arab countries need to recognize that al Qaeda threatens their own existence, not just the stability of the rest of the world. Could Saudi Arabia be awakening from its indifference?
The Saudis might be waking from their indifference, but it seems that Al Qaeda is upping the ante considerably faster than the world is prepared for. Protecting energy facilities is an almost impossible challenge. Thousands of miles of pipelines, refineries, power plants are subject to attack and need guarded. Al Qaeda needs one successful attack to keep guards occupied in watching the remaining faciities. The economy of the US is the target, they will try to bring us to our knees with very little expenditure, while we spend billions trying to protect our oil supplies.
That is almost impossible given that Mecca is in Saudi Arabia. I am not a Saudi apologist but it would be suicidal for any Saudi government to "liberalize" when the very essence of Islam is within its borders.
Al Qaeda enjoys concealment only to the extent that it keeps a low profile. Raising its profile makes it a better target for our forces. Any takeover of actual territory would allow us to immediately eliminate it.
their aim is to disrupt our oil supply.
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