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Large tornado outbreak likely IL/IN/IA/MO today

Posted on 05/30/2004 8:06:06 AM PDT by dusty99999

Looks like a repeat of yesterday(91 tornadoes) expect over more populated areas...if anything..there is even more wind shear today then yesterday...High risk out with large-long track tornadoes likley


TOPICS: US: Arkansas; US: Illinois; US: Indiana; US: Iowa; US: Kentucky; US: Louisiana; US: Oklahoma; US: Tennessee; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: tornado; weather
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1 posted on 05/30/2004 8:06:07 AM PDT by dusty99999
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To: dusty99999

where?


2 posted on 05/30/2004 8:08:00 AM PDT by Principled
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To: dusty99999

Over all those states? Good grief!


3 posted on 05/30/2004 8:08:32 AM PDT by Principled
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To: Principled

over a large area...this may start soon too..within 2 hours..looks like several clusters of tornadic supercells will form even in front of the main cold fornt now over Westren MO..


4 posted on 05/30/2004 8:10:25 AM PDT by dusty99999 (AST)
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To: dusty99999

This is going to make my planned cookout somewhat difficult.


5 posted on 05/30/2004 8:13:12 AM PDT by Bahbah
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To: dusty99999

We're right in the box. Good work last night, Dusty. A few people up here in North Central Illinois not looking forward to this day.

A_R

6 posted on 05/30/2004 8:16:57 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: dusty99999

Stay safe- I grew up just between Chicago and Indy... "mid-north Indiana"... I know it can get rough


7 posted on 05/30/2004 8:17:22 AM PDT by Principled
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To: Bahbah
Looks like we'll be having a cook in today. Sixty degrees in Mpls and the gazillionth cold and rainy day. Still doin' better than those south of us who are experiencing all those tornados. My sympathies to them.
8 posted on 05/30/2004 8:19:15 AM PDT by Lijahsbubbe
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To: Lijahsbubbe
Do you know what kind of weather they had in Ely last night? Have a friend spending the weekend at a cabin there.

A_R

9 posted on 05/30/2004 8:20:38 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: dusty99999

ABC news radio reporting tornado with multiple fatalities in Missouri.


10 posted on 05/30/2004 8:22:42 AM PDT by aomagrat (Where arms are not to be carried, it is well to carry arms.")
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To: arkady_renko

those storm have laid down an outflow boundry over IL and MO...winds north of there are backed ESE...this will enhance shear..saving factor may be if storms form into a line quickly...however supercells will likely form ahead of the main line


11 posted on 05/30/2004 8:23:33 AM PDT by dusty99999 (AST)
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To: dusty99999

We are in the middle of the red blob Fox News just showed. We are just SW of St. Louis over the county line. If the house starts spinning and I see Nancy Pelosi flying by on a broom cackling I'll be sure and try to land on her.


12 posted on 05/30/2004 8:27:14 AM PDT by Clintons Are White Trash (Helen Thomas, Molly Ivins, Maureen Dowd - The Axis of Ugly)
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To: dusty99999

When will these tornados stop?


13 posted on 05/30/2004 8:28:14 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (Buy Naxos CD's)
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To: Lijahsbubbe

Good grief, you guys are never going to get summer this year.


14 posted on 05/30/2004 8:29:26 AM PDT by Bahbah
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To: dusty99999

15 posted on 05/30/2004 8:31:54 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: Clintons Are White Trash

"We are just SW of St. Louis over the county line."

Hi there. I'm in mid-County. Stay safe. I love the bit about Pelosi on her broom.


16 posted on 05/30/2004 8:32:15 AM PDT by Bahbah
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To: SamAdams76

"When will these tornados stop?"

When John Kerry is elected president. Just ask him.




17 posted on 05/30/2004 8:33:05 AM PDT by Bahbah
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To: arkady_renko
You could just see this coming last night. We are under dense cloud cover with some local flooding occuring. I think everyone here can deal with the flooding - just no more repeats of the 9 tornado outbreak of a month ago.

A_R

18 posted on 05/30/2004 8:34:32 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: Lijahsbubbe
Crappy spring in New England too. Most of May was cold and rainy. The sun has come out for this weekend but still very cold for this time of year. It was 38 degrees this morning and is still in the upper 50s. Yesterday the high was 59 degrees. Sun didn't help much at all.

Supposed to hit 65 today. I'll take it but can't wait until we get some 70s and 80s for a change. I've only worn my shorts twice this year.

19 posted on 05/30/2004 8:36:45 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (Buy Naxos CD's)
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To: arkady_renko

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF MO/SE IA/W CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 301440Z - 301715Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO
EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...BUT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
EXISTS.

LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT.
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING/LIFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER OK
INTO AREAS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS
FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH LITTLE TO IMPEDE SURFACE
HEATING. WARM SECTOR SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE LINEAR FORCING MAY SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SEVERE SQUALL
LINE...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
LINE...AS WELL AS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF
LINE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION...NOW JUST EAST OF
KANSAS CITY MO...MAY POSE MOST SIGNIFICANT INITIAL THREAT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELL FORMATION. STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
BECOME EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT INITIATION BY/
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE MO INTO AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE.

..KERR.. 05/30/2004


20 posted on 05/30/2004 8:37:11 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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