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Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Nine
Yahoo News ^ | 5-30-04 | DONNA ABU-NASR AP

Posted on 05/30/2004 12:05:02 AM PDT by JustPiper

Picture credit: TheCabal

Picture Credit:Calpernia

"I will never cower before any master nor bend to any threat"

LINK TO THREAD EIGHT

KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia - Tens of American, European and other hostages were released Sunday and a gunman believed to be the lead Islamic militant holding them was arrested, a Saudi security official said, adding that two other gunmen were "in the process of being arrested."

We are the "Stotters" who make ourselves aware of the enemy who wishes to do us harm



TOPICS: Extended News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: threatmatrix
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To: StillProud2BeFree

"25 September 2003--It was announced by the Center for Islamic Studies and Research, close affiliated with al-Qaeda, that the wills of the perpetrators of the 12 May 2003 bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia will be read in a public forum. The reading of wills is symbolized as a "call to arms" or "call to action against US and Western assets, interests as well as military and civilian targets throughout the world. This reading also has strong implications against US troops in Iraq, as analysts from the Northeast Intelligence Network have noted connections between al Qaeda operatives calling for attacks against US troops and interests in Iraq.

Source:
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/Saudi%20Arabia.htm


3,821 posted on 06/09/2004 1:43:11 PM PDT by Jill St Claire
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To: rickylc

thanks.

i HAVE FOX ON ALMOST all the time.


3,822 posted on 06/09/2004 1:43:38 PM PDT by Quix (Choose this day whom U will serve: Shrillery & demonic goons or The King of Kings and Lord of Lords)
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To: mfccinsd

Brit Hume saying that there was an airplane which could not be identifed.

Evidently NOW the plane HAS been identified and all is well.

Sheesh.

That'll get the pulse rate up!


3,823 posted on 06/09/2004 1:44:19 PM PDT by Velveeta ("Do what's right......because it's right." President Ronald Reagan)
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To: Jill St Claire

Thank you Jill.

Always on top of all the important stuff!!!


3,824 posted on 06/09/2004 1:45:41 PM PDT by Mossad1967
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To: Velveeta

Had been on MSN b/c that was a joke of a show on Cavuto with his lack of voice and being in such a loud place I couldn't hear anything...was flipping back and forth and all the on the scene folks seemed pretty shaken up. Esp. over on MSNBC...interesting hearing them talk about it.

Somehow I'm afraid someone may try to distract from everything that's going on and do something to cause problems again before the next days are over :-(

Hope I'm wrong.


3,825 posted on 06/09/2004 1:46:11 PM PDT by mfccinsd
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To: Velveeta

That was quick, yes, it did get the pulse rate up.

Whew!!

:)


3,826 posted on 06/09/2004 1:47:37 PM PDT by rickylc
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To: mfccinsd; rickylc

We can take from this and learn that when the time comes....our government is going to say: RUN!!

Okkkaaaaay, like, um....RUN?!?!?

Which way!!??


3,827 posted on 06/09/2004 1:56:36 PM PDT by Velveeta ("Do what's right......because it's right." President Ronald Reagan)
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To: Jill St Claire

Thanks Jill. That certainly puts it in perspective.


3,828 posted on 06/09/2004 2:09:37 PM PDT by Oorang ( Those who trade liberty for security have neither)
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To: Jill St Claire

Thanks Jill!

Looks like a lot of signs coming all at once.

You concur this is a "GO" signal?

Something big in the immediate future?


3,829 posted on 06/09/2004 2:09:51 PM PDT by rickylc
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To: Velveeta
Monty Python & The Holy Grail Ping: "Run Away! Run Away!

Which way? THAT WAY!

3,830 posted on 06/09/2004 2:33:06 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic. (R.I.P. harpseal))
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To: Velveeta

I switched to MSNBC because their coverage was better at the moment. Chris Mathews mentioned the people at the Capital were told to run.

Interestingly he brought up the fact that on 9-11 the one's who survived were the people who ran. Most of those who did not take it quite as seriously died.

The plane that caused the panic was a Kentucky State Police plane of all things. I would not want to be the guy who has to decide what to do re: threats right now.


3,831 posted on 06/09/2004 2:39:05 PM PDT by WestCoastGal (Better stand tall when they're calling you out ~ Don't bend ,don't break, baby, don't back down ~)
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To: Jill St Claire; StillProud2BeFree
I've heard the suggestion that the recent venus transit might have been a useful "GO CODE" which would not have required much in the way of potentially compromising messages for the cells to risk. Your thoughts?
3,832 posted on 06/09/2004 2:49:19 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic. (R.I.P. harpseal))
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To: Velveeta; DAVEY CROCKETT

"So in the end, what does Saddam get out of this? . . .Who's to say the Iraqis wouldn't just release him?"

Second question first . . .it is true that it is unlikely they would release him. The new government *definitely* would not. A radical one succeeding it *probably* would not. The radical Shiites would kill him on the spot as would the moderates. The only folks that want him back are the radical Sunnis as they ran the ship as part of his gravy train. But even many Sunni tribes were targeted by Saddam for suspected disloyalty, so they had their fair share of victims. And they are only 15-18% of the population, and the Shi'a are 60+%. The only way they survived at the top of the heap was by brutal repression, and that game is over.

He has to be tried. He is one of the great war criminals of the 21st century. He has killed more Muslims than any other man in human history (over a million). He may have killed hundreds of Americans directly (and thousands indirectly), but he has killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, and they have every right to try him.

It is their country and their criminal, but we will obviously have a say in the matter . . .

What did he get out of the current jihad? He wanted to lead a guerilla resistance. Abandon the conventional military (which never had a chance). Fall back into a preplanned resistance with designated safe houses, stockpiles, etc. This tactic was seen in the south in the opening days of the war. The Fedayeen took off the uniforms and blended into the populace and managed to terrorize the south into a cowed silence.

That was why there was no "cheering in the streets" when we first went in. Because Saddam's men were hiding among them warning they would shoot "collaborators" on sight. They are terrorists - - true to form. The same guys that trained the hijackers at Salman Pak are the same guys that terrorized the population into neutrality and the same guys who target our troops with IEDs.

It did not work as well as he hoped (obviously because we are still there and he is not), but it did work to a limited extent. It succeeded in pushing the Iraqi people into feared neutrality. And it succeeded in creating a political backlash here at home because we had so unwisely built up expectations for a speedy conclusion to a war that we knew was being fought on the cheap and a planned resistance that folks either out of blindness or hubris refused to seriously acknowledge.

Right before the war, Saddam had all his top officers watch "Black Hawk Down" as a model on how to fight the Americans in urban combat. What has happened this past year should have been no big mystery.

Iran and Syria were involved in this from the start as well. The jihadis are like small time drug dealers and gangbangers - - street thugs. Fedayeen, Qods, Mukhabarat - - these are the Mafia kingpins or the drug lords. We aren't going to win this unless we go to the source and take out the masterminds and the mentors.

Unfortunately, that would mean a WMD Mideast regional war, and it seems we have our hands full in Iraq. Plus the bad guys are betting that we won't pull that trigger in an election year.

What *did* Saddam want out of jihad? He changed the Iraqi flag in the mid-90s to have the words "God is Great" placed on it. And he cultivated Al Qaeda (along with other states) during the same time. He wanted a weapon to use against us that was deniable and would erode our national will to remain engaged in the Mideast. And after we had withdrawn our forces from the region and become more neutral towards Israel, he would fulfill his lifelong ambition to follow in the footsteps of Saladin (a fellow Tikriti) and have his way with the region, knocking off the House of Saud or the Hashemite Kingdom, and putting an Iraqi intelligence agent (UBL, Zarqawi, etc) in as the new ruler, and together descend in jihad to take Jerusalem back for the Arab nation and Allah.

You have to stand back to get the big picture, and to understand what is coming in the next few weeks and months. Others will seek that mantle because they feel their backs will be against the wall once Iraq stabilizes and American forces will be freed up to respond to any further nonsense.

Hence, the frantic attempt to destabilize Iraq and force us out. For the bad guys, everything is riding on the outcome (they feel they are next). It is indeed the central front. And so, just as the violence will explode in Iraq in the next 2-3 weeks in a way that exceeds anything we have seen thus far, it stands to reason that if they are able, will try to "destabilize" our willingness to incur death and sacrifice in Iraq by inflicting death on us here. And to do it in a way that maximizes the political effect (before November 2nd a la Madrid). However, sooner rather than later applies here because everything is riding on Iraq. So my guess is that the attack, unlike Spain, will not be timed days near the election, but near the Iraqi transfer date (in the leadup or aftermath of the June 30th handover), so they coincide the political effect here (forcing us the reconsider our involvement and commitment to our allies as they hoped to do on 9/11) with the political effect there (destabilizing the new Iraqi government so jihadis or their backers from the former regime can seize power).

They tried to destabilize Jordan (pre-empted WMD chemical attack) and are trying to do that in Saudi and in Iraq. Sent a warning shot to Assad last month with the attack in Damascus (stop playing footsies with and snitching to the Americans and stay in bed with us or you will pay).

The current strategy is the same as was Saddam's and his partners pre-9/11 (force America out of the Mideast, destabilize its allies, then converge on Israel). They picked Saudi and Egyptian identities to fit the strategy. And they decided early on to base out of Afghanistan in the hope of tying us down as they did the Soviets. We didn't take the bait in either case. (Didn't make it our mission to take down the House of Saud or to try to send 200,000 troops to occupy Afghanistan. We played it smart.)

If they wait until October to hit, it will give us the chance to absorb the coming hits in Iraq and the new Iraqi government to start taking out the jihadi resistance themselves (rather than the American "occupiers"). It's like when an older brother beats the stuffing out of a younger sibling, but will fiercely defend that same sibling if attacked by an outsider, or why it is ok for some members of racial or ethnic communities to use offensive epithets on each other (the "N-word" comes to mind) but will not let an outsider do that without a severe penalty.

The Arab saying is (paraphrased) "Me and my brother against my cousin. Me and my cousin against the outsider." Once the Iraqis are running the show instead of us, they will be free to "beat the stuffing" out of the resistance. But as long as the American "cousins" are running the show as self-declared occupiers, their hands are tied. No one on this planet ever liked an occupier. We sure didn't back in 1776.

That is why they are fighting so fiercely to undermine the transition. Remember the references to the number 4 at the beginning of the year? The Sadr uprising began in four cities on 4-4-04. The Sunni uprising in Fallujah was launched in close coordination (outsiders playing both ends against the middle - - the middle being us). That is why they have been going after members of the Iraqi Governing Council for the past nine months. It is why they targeted the UN at the start (to prevent them from facilitating or assisting the transition as they have just done with the resolution). It is why they have been trying to peel off coalition members one by one (the Spanish and the Italians being the initial focus). Everything rides on the next few weeks.

That is why any attack will not wait until late October. Anything in the pipeline is going to be released to maximize the chance of contributing to foiling the June 30 transition. The longer they wait the less likely they will achieve their strategic goals. They will lose their foothold in Iraq as the new government gets its bearings and begins to crack down on them, and if they attempt to flee and regroup in an adjacent country, they will make it a target as American forces in Iraq will be freer to respond as the situation stabilizes.

If they wait too long, it will no longer matter. At that point, they can still inflict damage on us, but they will have already sustained a fatal blow and they will have been checkmated. There might still need to be 10-11 moves for the rest of the game to play out over coming years, but it will still be a checkmate if we lock down Iraq, stabilize it, and make it an ally in the war against these folks. There is no way they can carry out their regional strategy if Iraq is taken off the table (politically, militarily, or geographically). It is the "linchpin" state in the WoT (as Germany was for the Cold War).

So, it is gametime.


3,833 posted on 06/09/2004 2:56:40 PM PDT by NothingMan
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To: Jill St Claire

I was not associated with NEIN in September 2003 and that page predates me as well so I can't take credit for that.
By the way, I don't see where that page is linked to from NEIN - looks like a dead page to me.

Didn't you write that article?


3,834 posted on 06/09/2004 2:59:02 PM PDT by StillProud2BeFree
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To: StillProud2BeFree; All

Is no one talking about "Gonzo's" predictions of 9/11/2001 and 8/6/2004 yet?

BTW, I am an agnostic on astrology.

But interesting reading.

Look at his home page bio as well.

http://hyperlinks1.homestead.com/september11attacks_1.html


3,835 posted on 06/09/2004 3:08:48 PM PDT by steve86
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To: Donna Lee Nardo; Letitring; nw_arizona_granny; DAVEY CROCKETT
Okay this isn't strictly terrorism, but it relates to President Reagan. If you remember his 1984 re-election campaign there was a commercial featuring a bear strolling through the woods and there was commentary. Well, if you want to view that ad, you'll have to go to a good website called "CRUSHKERRY.com" and here's a link.

CRUSH KERRY

Reagan was always one to stand up to bullies and terrorists. The thug who rules Libya wasn't heard from for a good long time after Ronnie sent a few dozen bombs into his camel tent. Liberals and other terrorist apologists tend to forget this.

3,836 posted on 06/09/2004 3:11:08 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic. (R.I.P. harpseal))
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To: Domestic Church
Pop is correct about the lead needed.

There was a story on Good Morning America today about cans from foreign countries still being made with lead and imported into the USA. Labels cover the solder marks - nice, huh?

3,837 posted on 06/09/2004 3:20:32 PM PDT by MamaDearest (Our time on earth is limited - make the best of it!)
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To: Labyrinthos

Thank you Labyrinthos.


3,838 posted on 06/09/2004 3:20:41 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Quix

You have a point.

Some people only hear The Word at weddings, funerals, baptisms, Christmas and Easter. Sad, but true.


3,839 posted on 06/09/2004 3:29:14 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Donna Lee Nardo
"Could a winch be used -- in a practical sense, I mean -- to transport a sizable nuke?"

Anything is possible. Likely? I dunno. But there's one more element. SIZABLE. How big? They obviously want to cause huge damage both in casualties and property and of course for propaganda. But as the concentrations of fissionable material rises so does the risk at a geometric rate. They can't afford to be forced to abort such a mission and they can't afford to get caught before they can succeed. It has to be spectacular and successful, otherwise 911 looks like a fluke that happened like Pearl Harbor, because the giant was sleeping and unaware. What I mean is, I think they want to go as big as they can without running unacceptable risks of discovery and apprehension. Am I making sense? Today was the last day of school. It wouldn't surprise me if I was just blathering incoherently. lol

3,840 posted on 06/09/2004 3:29:36 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic. (R.I.P. harpseal))
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