Al-Qaeda boosted by Iraq war, warns think-tank

LONDON : The US-led war on Iraq, far from countering terrorism, has helped revitalise the Al-Qaeda terror network, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think-tank warned.

The London-based body said in its annual Strategic Survey 2003/2004 that the deadly train bombings in Madrid in March, the worst terror strike in Europe for more than a decade, showed that Osama Bin Laden's terror network "had fully reconstituted".

It also predicted the Islamic group would step up its anti-Western attacks, possibly even resorting to weapons of mass destruction and targeting Americans, Europeans and Israelis while continuing to support insurgents opposing the US-led occupation of Iraq.

The IISS pointed to devastating blasts in Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in 2003 and 2004 as further evidence that anti-US sentiment had soared since the Iraq war.

"In counter-terrorism terms, the intervention has arguably focused the energies and resources of al-Qaeda and its followers while diluting those of the global counter-terrorism coalition that appeared so formidable following the Afghanistan intervention in late 2001," the report said.

However, since the war it said that arms proliferation and state-sponsored terrorism has dwindled, with Libya giving up its unconventional weapons programs and Syria becoming "less provocative."

Stalinist North Korea's secret nuclear programme was somehow contained thanks to a negotiating process while Iran agreed to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear activities, the IISS said.

But another legacy of the war was what the IISS termed a highly questionable recourse to pre-emptive strikes as a means of counter-proliferation, as well as "the uses and abuses of intelligence as a basis for military action."

The IISS said the United States, which has dominated world affairs since the end of the Cold War, had failed to understand that Al-Qaeda's September 11, 2001 attacks were "a violent reaction to America's pre-eminence" and it urged the superpower to temper "the appearance of American unilateralism".

It warned that Washington would have a hard time restoring order in embattled Iraq and stressed that the conflict had brought a political split between the United States and its continental European allies, leaving Britain stuck in the middle.

The survey additionally forecast a possible attention shift away from terrorism, Middle Eastern problems and weapons proliferation should North Korea opt for a more aggressive stance, a humanitarian disaster hit Africa or undesirable regime-changes "produce abrupt and serious security challenges".

The United States will not manage to tackle all of the above single-handedly, warned the think-tank, raising a question mark over Europe's ability to break away from "strategic arthritis."

channelnewsasia.com/ Couldn't find anything on Pravda?

Here's a wire report on the story:

Report: al-Qaida Ranks Swelling Worldwide Wed May 26,12:47 AM ET By BARRY RENFREW, Associated Press Writer LONDON - Far from being crippled by the U.S.-led war on terror, al-Qaida has more than 18,000 potential terrorists scattered around the world and the war in Iraq (news - web sites) is swelling its ranks, a report said Tuesday. AFP/File Photo Al-Qaida is probably working on plans for major attacks on the United States and Europe, and it may be seeking weapons of mass destruction in its desire to inflict as many casualties as possible, the International Institute of Strategic Studies said in its annual survey of world affairs. Osama bin Laden (news - web sites)'s network appears to be operating in more than 60 nations, often in concert with local allies, the study by the independent think tank said. Although about half of al-Qaida's top 30 leaders have been killed or captured, it has an effective leadership, with bin Laden apparently still playing a key role, it said. "Al-Qaida must be expected to keep trying to develop more promising plans for terrorist operations in North America and Europe, potentially involving weapons of mass destruction," IISS director Dr. John Chipman told a press conference releasing "Strategic Survey 2003/4." At the same time it will likely continue attacking "soft targets encompassing Americans, Europeans and Israelis, and aiding the insurgency in Iraq," he added. The report suggested that the two military centerpieces of the U.S.-led war on terror — the wars in Afghanistan (news - web sites) and Iraq — may have boosted al-Qaida. Driving the terror network out of Afghanistan in late 2001 appears to have benefited the group, which dispersed to many countries, making it almost invisible and hard to combat, the story said. And the Iraq conflict "has arguably focused the energies and resources of al-Qaida and its followers while diluting those of the global counterterrorism coalition that appeared so formidable" after the Afghan intervention, the survey said. The U.S. occupation of Iraq brought al-Qaida recruits from across Islamic nations, the study said. Up to 1,000 foreign Islamic fighters have infiltrated Iraqi territory, where they are cooperating with Iraqi insurgents, the survey said. Efforts to defeat al-Qaida will take time and might accelerate only if there are political developments that now seem elusive, such as the democratization of Iraq and the resolution of conflict in Israel, it said. It could take up to 500,000 U.S. and allied troops to effectively police Iraq and restore political stability, IISS researcher Christopher Langton told the news conference. Such a figure appeared impossible to meet, given political disquiet in the United States and Britain and the unwillingness of other nations to send troops, he said. The United States is al-Qaida's prime target in a war it sees as a death struggle between civilizations, the report said. An al-Qaida leader has said 4 million Americans will have to be killed "as a prerequisite to any Islamic victory," the survey said. "Al-Qaida's complaints have been transformed into religious absolutes and cannot be satisfied through political compromise," the study said. The London-based institute is considered the most important security think tank outside the United States. Its findings on al-Qaida's expanding structure and growing support by allied terrorist networks around the world track with similar assessments from governments and other experts. The IISS said its estimate of 18,000 al-Qaida fighters was based on intelligence estimates that the group trained at least 20,000 fighters in its camps in Afghanistan before the United States and its allies ousted the Taliban regime. In the ensuing war on terror, some 2,000 al-Qaida fighters have been killed or captured, the survey said. Al-Qaida appears to have successfully reconstituted its operations by dispersing its forces into small groups and through working with local allies, such as the Great Eastern Islamic Raiders' Front in Turkey, the report said. "Al-Qaida is the common ideological and logistical hub for disparate local affiliates, and bin Laden's charisma, presumed survival and elusiveness enhance the organization's iconic drawing power," it said.

Let me see, we have a nation located between Iran and Syria, and in close proximity to Afghanistan and a few other Moslem states. Husseing was providing cash to Palestinian suicide bomber's familes. He was embezzeling billions. He was spouting off against the United States and promising to support our most ardent enemies. When asked to provide evidence he had destroyed his WMDs, he refused. He refused for over a decade. Then we were attacked.

Bud, if you think Hussein was someone we should have allowed to stay in power, then your basicly unqualified to contribute to this forum.

The list of good things that have taken place in Iraq over the last year is very long. If you don't know that, then you've just proven my comment. If Schwartzkoff doesn't know it, then he should be happy to be retired, and get back to spinning more flies for fly fishing.

Clancy has committed Harry Carry, and now I guess others have decided it's time for them to do so as well. It's sad, but if they want to destroy any respect most of us had for them, it's a free country.

I might add, Iraq is not the last nation we need to liberate.

Iran and Syria are prime candidates, and if they are too stupid to pull a Khadaffy, then they'll deserve whatever they get.

Jordan can tell you, that refusing to get involved in this war on terror, didn't stop them from being targeted. But for the grace of God, they would have had upwards of 80,000 casualties. So much for wimping out. It just doesn't work.

Well... be nice now, Howlin. They don't want to kill us ALL. You can put on a filthy nightshirt, get down on a prayer rug and worship a moon god and meteorite. That will keep you alive.

Oh, and then there is your wife. She can wear a burkha and shut the hell up or be beaten back into submission. Or she can take a bullet through the head at a soccer game.

Your son? Why he can go on Jihad against the infidels... or die, of course.

And your daughter can be sexually mutilated and join your wife in a life of darkness, misery and oppression.

So, you see, churchillbuff's friends are not so bad after all. be happy and embrace America's enemies. It works for him... at least for now.

None survive when freedom fails;
Good men rot in filthy jails,
While those who cried, "Appease! Appease!"
Are hanged by those they tried to please.

How sick and sad that such a spineless appeaser choose the name of that great statesman instead of the more appropriate Nevile Chamberlain.

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