Posted on 05/20/2004 7:52:29 AM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper
May 20, 2004 Bush and Kerry Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in Florida
George W. Bush and John Kerry remain tied among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Kerry. A total of 3% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 4% of likely voters are undecided. In a survey completed in April, Bush was at 46%, Kerry was at 45%, and Nader was at 3%
In a ballot question without Nader, 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush and 47% say they would vote for Kerry, with 6% of likely voters undecided. This is unchanged from April.
These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 40% are Republicans, 44% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party. The interviews were conducted May 17 through 19, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Florida likely voters May 19 Apr 21 Mar 4
George W. Bush 47% 46% 44% John Kerry 46% 45% 45% Ralph Nader 3% 3% 4% Undecided 4% 6% 7%
While Kerry leads Bush 47% to 40% among likely voters not affiliated with a major party, Bush runs stronger among Republicans than Kerry runs among Democrats and Bush is the choice among 11% of Democrats.
Party Republicans (40%) Democrats (44%) None/Minor (16%)
George W. Bush 89% 11% 40% John Kerry 7% 81% 47% Ralph Nader 1% 3% 6% Undecided 3% 5% 7%
In terms of awareness and favorability, all likely voters say they are aware of George W. Bush and 94% say they are aware of John Kerry.
A total of 48% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 47% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.
A total of 46% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 45% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry.
A total of 72% of likely voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Ralph Nader.
Awareness and favorability Aware Favorable Unfavorable Undecided
George W. Bush: May 19 2004 100% 48% 47% 5% Apr 21 2004 100% 48% 45% 7% Mar 4 2004 100% 48% 47% 5%
John Kerry: May 19 2004 94% 46% 45% 3% Apr 21 2004 94% 44% 45% 5% Mar 4 2004 93% 41% 41% 11%
Ralph Nader: May 19 2004 93% 6% 72% 15% Apr 21 2004 95% 8% 70% 17% Mar 4 2004 95% 17% 53% 25%
A total of 89% of Republicans say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 80% of Democrats say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.
A total of 81% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 89% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry.
A total of 80% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Nader.
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About this survey:
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 40% are Republicans, 44% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.
Sample Dates: May 17-19, 2004
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Oh Florida... here we go again !
The 1% difference is actually, due to rounding, just a single voter-- a 90 year old Brower county man by the name of Chad who thinks he may have been confused by the lack of Buchanan in the pollster's question.
I was going to give you a courtesy ping since I found this poll through your website.
Just wonderful
I really really want to see some encouraging news from OH LA and now FLorida
I hope some better numbers start flowing real soon or we are in trouble folks
In the two polls I've seen lately, the numbers I find interesting say that there are more democrats likely to vote for President Bush right now than republicans likely to vote for Kerry. So they're not all ignorant.
;-) Thanks
Does the poll include likely Democratic DOUBLE-voters?
And dead voters?
Republicans in Florida stopped answering polsters awhile ago.
The welfare moms have nothing better to do, though.
Having worked for a polling company, I can tell you that these numbers are essentially meaningless.
First of all, It was a telephone poll of only 600 people. That's a very small sample size.
Secondly, you must ask if the 600 people are proportionally representative of the Florida population's demographic profile.
Think about it: who answers these telephone polls? Opinionated people with time on their hands. In Florida, that means welderly (wealthy seniors).
Florida is a battleground state - no question, but a poll of only 600 people cannot be accurately projected to the greater population.
well, they shouldn't. Polls like this will cause diversion of funds to Florida.
let's not get too excited and claim there is some "hidden vote" for Bush in all these close polls. That never materializes, its going to be a close election.
I doubt that the poll includes voters who will cast absentee ballots. These are largely military and they vote overwhelmingly Republican. This is why the treasonous Dems tried so hard to invalidate their votes in 00.
Poll ping.
I do not know if ARG does try to so compensate.
Soon, in the near future, the number of polls will EXCEED the number of voters...
:o)
A 'Hanging Chad' ?
Could be worse, he could be pregnant.
"A total of 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Kerry."
If it had been Kerry 47% and Bush 46% the headline would have read "Kerry Surges".
Hey! You forgot to mention felons.
I will place a bet that if it is close this time, the democrats will win at all cost. Election 2000 with a twist. I am not looking forward to this ride to election hell. BTW, liberals ae brain dead.
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