Posted on 05/18/2004 3:26:29 PM PDT by Amish
Republican Larry Diedrich is running neck and neck with Stephanie Herseth, his Democratic rival in South Dakota’s upcoming special House election, an independent poll to be released tonight shows.
The poll gives Herseth 47 percent, compared to Diedrich’s 44 percent, marking a huge gain for the Republican. Earlier this year, Diedrich trailed Herseth by nearly 30 points.
The three-point spread falls within the survey’s four-point margin of error.
file photo Stephanie Herseth
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The poll was conducted by television station KELO, an ABC affiliate, in Sioux Falls. Mark Millage, the station’s news director, did not return telephone calls seeking more information about the poll.
One Democratic aide said the poll numbers reflected Diedrich’s growing name recognition. “There’s definitely been some narrowing,” the aide said. “Nobody knew who he was. I think he introduced himself to voters, and it’s a conservative state, and he got the low-hanging fruit.”
The Democrat also said that Herseth maintains a wider lead than some of the poll numbers indicate. The aide pointed out that while Herseth has a statistically insignificant edge when it comes to voters who are certain to vote June 1, she holds a nine-point lead among a larger pool of voters who are only likely to cast ballots.
Whatever the case, the new poll shows that Diedrich is a serious contender and that the Democrats can no longer count on picking up the at-large seat, which was vacated earlier this year by Rep. Bill Janklow (R). Janklow spent 100 days behind bars for his role in accidentally killing a motorcyclist; he was released yesterday.
When the state Republican Central Committee endorsed Diedrich in late January, the former state senator, who resigned to run for Congress, was unknown to most voters and had far less money than Herseth, a lawyer. At that time, she had more than $354,000 on hand, compared to Diedrich’s $34,000.
In the first quarter of this year, Herseth raised just over $1 million compared to Diedrich’s $888,000. Herseth had close to $914,000 in the bank; Diedrich had nearly $757,000.
Herseth narrowly lost a 2002 House bid against Janklow. Republicans have called the Democrat, who comes from a well-known political family in South Dakota, likable and have largely refrained from attacking her.
In a Feb. 5-7 Mason-Dixon poll, voters preferred Herseth to Diedrich by 58 percent to 29 percent.
Yesterday, spokesmen for both campaigns declined to comment on the new poll numbers.
Danielle Holland, Diedrich’s press secretary, said the Republican was on a bus tour Monday with 40 to 50 volunteers from Rapid City to Sioux Falls.
Herseth spokesman Russ Levsen said the candidate would be in Sioux Falls; Pierre, the state capital; and up and down the I-29 corridor this week.
The candidates will take part in a debate Thursday sponsored by KELO and the Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, in Sioux Falls. On Sunday, Herseth will campaign with Sens. Tom Daschle and Tim Johnson, both South Dakota Democrats.
Doesn't bode well for Daschle. I'd assume..Methinks that the good people of SD, who support President Bsh, realize that it would be prety stupid to have all three of their elected congression delegation IN THE MINORITY..I mean, who would take your call if you really rneeded something done at the federal level...In the analysis of Thune's defeat, I believe I read that a stong message mas made by Johnson that voting for hi would keep Daschle as the ( then ) Sen Majority leader, and he could do a lot for SDak..NOt any more..
Go Diedrich!!!
If Bush were a shoe-in, that reasoning would work better. Last election, people rejected Thune, the Republican, thinking that having a Dem in a Democratic Senate would be better for the state, that Johnson could help Daschle in his leadership position. Then the Dems lost the Senate and Daschle his majority leader status.
There's some merit in what you say, except that it's impossible to find anyone who seriously believes, other than Terry McAuliffe, that the Dems have any chance of retaking the House or the Senate. Those majorities are solid for the next decade, at least. And the GOP majorities are getting more conservative.
Yes but did the poll count the dead who more often than not vote Democrat?
"Last election, people rejected Thune, the Republican, thinking that having a Dem in a Democratic Senate would be better for the state, that Johnson could help Daschle in his leadership position. Then the Dems lost the Senate and Daschle his majority leader status."
Speaking of which, how is Thune doing against Daschle, anyone know?
We will need an extra margin of safety to make up for those late votes trickling in from Shannon County.
Think I heard somewhere that Daschle's at 47 percent, not good for all the money he's poured into the race so far. Thune, I understand, has spent very little so far.
"And the GOP majorities are getting more conservative."
They are? The Republicans are spending like drunken sailors now, just like the Dems. And Toomey just lost his bid to unseat Snarlin Arlen.
What do you base your assertion on?
"Those majorities are solid for the next decade, at least."
Minorities (who vote heavily Democratic) are growing faster that others - via immigration and procreation.
Again, what do you base your assertion on?
Rasmussen has Daschle 48 to Thune 45 right now.
ACU stats..the current average ACU rating for all GOP congresscritters is a 67..25 years agoit was in the low 30's..and, as the districts, and the states. become more locked into one party, the primaries are becoming more important, and in the primaries, the GOP activists..which are conservtaive, determine the nominee..look at what's happending in GA, now, with Cain, for example..
The House is solid.
The Senate could very easily go into Dem hands the way the polls are right now.
I like your positive outlook. We need more of that.
This is a surprising poll result. I would still be on SD going Democrat except for President, and it hasn't done that since the popular LBJ-HHH ticket.
"..look at what's happending in GA, now, with Cain, for example.."
I'm in Ga, and am helping with Cain's campaign as much as I can, but he is far from a lock. Besides, I wouldn't consider Georgia representative of the nation.
"ACU stats..the current average ACU rating for all GOP congresscritters is a 67..25 years agoit was in the low 30's.."
I have no idea how they are coming up with those numbers. How do you reconcile that with amnesty for illegals, spending which is out of control and a tax code that gets worse (from a complexity and compliance cost standpoint) each and every year. I wish that I could believe you, but I would have to suspend logic to do so.
Good news!
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