Republican closes gap in the S.D. House race (Herseth 47% Diedrich 44% )

thehill.com ^ | 05/18/04 | Peter Savodnik

[KQQL]

Republican Larry Diedrich is running neck and neck with Stephanie Herseth, his Democratic rival in South Dakota’s upcoming special House election, an independent poll to be released tonight shows.

The poll gives Herseth 47 percent, compared to Diedrich’s 44 percent, marking a huge gain for the Republican. Earlier this year, Diedrich trailed Herseth by nearly 30 points.

The three-point spread falls within the survey’s four-point margin of error.

The poll was conducted by television station KELO, an ABC affiliate, in Sioux Falls. Mark Millage, the station’s news director, did not return telephone calls seeking more information about the poll.

One Democratic aide said the poll numbers reflected Diedrich’s growing name recognition. “There’s definitely been some narrowing,” the aide said. “Nobody knew who he was. I think he introduced himself to voters, and it’s a conservative state, and he got the low-hanging fruit.”

The Democrat also said that Herseth maintains a wider lead than some of the poll numbers indicate. The aide pointed out that while Herseth has a statistically insignificant edge when it comes to voters who are certain to vote June 1, she holds a nine-point lead among a larger pool of voters who are only likely to cast ballots.

Whatever the case, the new poll shows that Diedrich is a serious contender and that the Democrats can no longer count on picking up the at-large seat, which was vacated earlier this year by Rep. Bill Janklow (R). Janklow spent 100 days behind bars for his role in accidentally killing a motorcyclist; he was released yesterday.

[KQQL]

TURNOUT TURNOUT .......

wow, the big MO is with Larry !

[ambrose]

Let's hope we can pull this out, because Thune has 'loser' written all over him.

[KQQL]

I hope he pulls this through..

[TheBigB]

Wow! I was sure that Herseth would win the seat going away. Shows how smart I am.*

*Not very.

[KQQL]

this race was Herseth to lose.

I guess the abortion issue isn't working for Herseth and got to give to Larry, he's run a good campaign.

--Sodak: keep us posted ......on the race

[Sockdologer]

You know, I thought that too, but I'm not so sure.
I've been talking to a lot of Democrats in the state
and they're not very happy with the way Daschle
spoke on the war. Even if he wins this time,
I think he's finally on his way out.

[KQQL]

Election is on - 06/01/04

Herseth 47% - Diedrich 44% - Begay ?% - Undecided ?%
KELO Poll for Keloland.com
MoE+/-4 (Certain Voters) 05/?-?/04

Herseth 53.3% - Diedrich 37.1% - Begay 1.9% - Undecided 7.7%
Zogby Poll
MoE+/-4.5% (Likely Voters) 03/27-28/04

Herseth 58% - Diedrich 29% - Undecided 13%
Mason Dixox Poll for Keloland.com
MoE+/-3.5% (Reg Voters) 02/07/04

[KQQL]

Democratic polling firm GQR showing Daschle ahead of Thune, 55% to 42%.
----

I wonder why he's (tommy) releasing a poll just before mason dixon/keloland poll comes out

[Sockdologer]

*nods at you* Still keeping my fingers crossed :)

[Coop]

Geez. I expected that ridiculously large gap to narrow, but not by this much this quickly. And the Dem source seems to indicate they have other info validating this closure.

[Kuksool]

Here's a House race that could have a big impact on the SD Senate race. The GOP holds this House seat, it could bold well for Thune in November.

[The Scourge of Yazid]

I'm amazed that this guy was able to overcome the stench emanating from Bill Janklow, to actually run a competitive campaign.

I haven't been following this story since Janklow was given that slap on the wrist prison sentence; so could give some details as to how this happened?

I'd be very appreciative if you could give me just a little info. as to how the race turned around so quickly.

[JohnnyZ]

Democratic polling firm GQR showing Daschle ahead of Thune, 55% to 42%.

That poll amused me. How many polls do you think they did before they got THAT result?

[AuH2ORepublican]

In a low-turnout special election, the "certain voter" sub-group may be closer to the truth than the "likely voter" sub-group. And there's still 2 weeks to go before the special election, with the undecideds more likely to vote for the conservative Republican they're only starting to learn about than the liberal Democrat they've known for awhile. Our chances of holding this seat look very good now, and if Diedrich wins in June, it would be very, very difficult for Herseth to beat him in November with Bush atop the ballot.

[JohnnyZ]

Any idea regarding factors that might influence turnout for the primary/special election?

[KQQL]

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington,
D.C., interviewed 625 likely voters from May 10-12.
The poll has a 4 percent margin of error.

Herseth leads Diedrich 49 percent to 40 percent in the
survey.

Among the 455 poll respondents who say they will
"definitely" vote on June 1, Herseth's lead shrinks to
three points, 47 to 44 percent.


---poll details

[ambrose]

Mason-Dixon is a quality pollster. They don't do overnight flash poll garbage.

[KQQL]

Election is on - 06/01/04

Herseth 47% - Diedrich 44% - Begay 1% (DV)
Herseth 49% - Diedrich 40% - Begay 1% (LV)
KELO Poll for Keloland.com
MoE+/-4 (Likely and Definate Voters) 05/1-12/04

Herseth 53.3% - Diedrich 37.1% - Begay 1.9%
Zogby Poll
MoE+/-4.5% (Likely Voters) 03/27-28/04

Herseth 58% - Diedrich 29%
Mason Dixox Poll for Keloland.com
MoE+/-3.5% (Reg Voters) 02/07/04

[KQQL]

I still say this is Herseth race to lose