Here's a House race that could have a big impact on the SD Senate race. The GOP holds this House seat, it could bold well for Thune in November.
In a low-turnout special election, the "certain voter" sub-group may be closer to the truth than the "likely voter" sub-group. And there's still 2 weeks to go before the special election, with the undecideds more likely to vote for the conservative Republican they're only starting to learn about than the liberal Democrat they've known for awhile. Our chances of holding this seat look very good now, and if Diedrich wins in June, it would be very, very difficult for Herseth to beat him in November with Bush atop the ballot.