Posted on 05/17/2004 9:00:14 AM PDT by NYC Republican
Kerry 46% Bush 44% Election 2004 Presidential Ballot
Bush 43% Kerry 45% Other 5% Not Sure 6% RasmussenReports.com
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Rasmussen Reports Home
Monday May 17, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John F. Kerry with 45% of the vote and President George W. Bush earning 43%.
Kerry has been ahead or tied on thirteen of the last fifteen days. Both candidates have stayed within 3 percentage points of the 45% mark every single day for more than ten weeks.
Today, the President's Job Approval reached its lowest level of the year at 48% among likely voters.
At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, we will release updated numbers on how many Americans think we are winning the War on Terror.
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The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Results were not posted last Monday because Rasmussen Reports did not conduct survey interviews on Mothers' Day.
Last week, pollster John Zogby created a stir by declaring that the election is now Kerry's to lose. A commentary by Scott Rasmussen addresses that declaration and reaches a different conclusion.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Americans now trust President Bush more than Senator Kerry on issues of national defense and the War on Terror. Forty-one percent (41%) prefer Kerry. Those numbers reach a slight improvement for Bush compared to the week before. However, the week ago numbers were the lowest of the year for the President.
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Other Rasmussen Reports survey data shows that half of all Americans expect the situation in Iraq to get worse over the next six months. Also, most Americans believe that the soldiers involved in Iraqi prisoner abuse should be court-martialed. Only 31% of Americans believe Defense Secretary Rumsfeld should resign.
Most Americans now say it is unlikely that Iraq will emerge as a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy.
President Bush's approval rating fell again to 48%, with 31% strongly approving, 38% strongly disapproving.
Headline has been corrected.
All Ghairib, all the time has not had much effect, then...
Well this bites
I am really hoping that this turns around and Bush starts to really pick up steam
btt
Rasmussen's head-to-head numbers aren't worth the pixels it takes to report them. But Bush's declining approval rating is something new, at least for this particular polling outfit.
What I have noticed after the past several months of poll watching is this:
In general, Bush and Kerry are tied in national polls, with the margin being within 5 points. And so, if I only paid attention to natinal polls, I would say we're looking at another 2000 barnburner.
However, the state polls seem to be favoring Bush. If I totally ignored all national polls and only examined state polling data in light of 2000 election results, I would say Bush is looking at winning with anywhere from 300 to 350 electoral votes.
Any thoughts on this?
At this point, I'd tend to agree with you. National samples are irrelevant because it's a state by state contest, and Dubya is well ahead in the electoral count. He's holding his own ground in the red states(except perhaps Ohio, which will be a barn burner), and is ahead in a few key blue states that Ketchup Boy HAS to have in order to win(WI, PA, MI).
If Bush loses the popular vote by more than one percentage point, he will not win the electoral college at all. He certainly would not win 350 EVs in that scenario.
Given that the general impression recently is that the USA can't do much right, I'd say this poll is a good sign for Bush. Hahaha!
The author needs a math class. If all polls were within the margin of error, there all tied. None are ahead using poll data.
I just don't believe that Americans can be so pessimistic about the future of Iraq and not hold Bush accountable more than Scott is suggesting.
Theoretically it's possible to win the electoral college in a landslide while losing the popular vote. For that to happen states like California and New York would have to have Kerry up by HUGE margins. I think I saw a headline where California was fairly close.
If Bush loses the popular vote by more than 1.5%, he won't win the Electoral Vote.
I think it's a case of, "Iraq looks to be a quagmire but what is John F'ing Kerry going to accomplish???"
Daily polls 6 months before the election. Totally meaningless
Theoretically, yes, but the nation isn't as divided as some people think. People have relatives and conversations and friendships all over the country. There is a group-think in the country to a degree-- especially among independents. Those independents and undecideds will tilt a certain way collectively all across the country.
I agree. This is the only thing that makes any sense to me. The Pres has slipped a little in the past two months but still holds a comfortable lead in the electoral votes
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