Poll: Support for Bush, Iraq war dropping (Kerry 49% W 44% Nader 6%-W approval @ 46%)

cnn.com ^ | 05/14/04 | cnn.

[KQQL]

That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.

If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.

Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.

The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday.

The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points

[novalogic]

Pledge your vote to Bush here:
http://congress.org

[PISANO]

I find it hard to believe that Kerry can be ahead of George Bush. I live in a different world from the one that prefers a LEFTIST like Kerry over a man of integrity like GW.

Well, we will elect the President we deserve, I sure hope we deserve George Bush.

[KQQL]

here are the last 7 polls I used to get 46%
Cnn/Time
CBS News
CNN/Gallup/USA Today
Pew Research
Fox News
NBC/WSJ
Quinnipiac
I don't use rasmussen or party polls or old polls.

[ambrose]

It has been four years since 2000, and he has done other polls since that time which have been more accurate...

[abigailsmybaby]

I heard just the opposite this morning on KFI news. My a$$ is tired of all the useless polls (and pols).

[ambrose]

oh... where's the Fox poll? They're usually released on Friday..

[KQQL]

I am not suprised at this poll.

Bush is behind in ohio by 3-7%

[AntiGuv]

He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush.

They polled adults for the full poll and give the MOE for that. They used the likely voter subset for the election matchups.. A typical poll.

[ambrose]

TIPP isn't on there?

[novalogic]

Pledge your vote to Bush here:
http://congress.org
corrected link

[cohokie]

The last two incumbents to lose had approvals in the low 30s ... Bush Sr. and Carter ... until he hits those numbers this thing is still a horse race ...

Also the Bush campaign has stopped spending $$$ on defining Kerry, they are saving the best for later in the campaign ... think about it:

- Commercial runs with John Kerry voting against the Death Penalty for terrorists
- Commercial runs with John Kerry speaking that anyone who votes against the 87 billion is not fit to be commander in chief ...

the list goes on and on ... he will be doen in by his own votes.

[KQQL]

bad news is W is behind, good news ther approx 6 month to go

[ambrose]

what's the MOE on likelys?

[John Lenin]

The Washington-based Progressive Review, which conducted the "Primary Pollster Run-Off" independent review of polling firms, ranked Rasmussen No. 1 in accuracy.

"The results suggest that, contrary to popular myth, polls do work, but that some work considerably better than others," said Sam Smith, publisher of the magazine.

www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=17627

[KQQL]

bad news is W is behind, good news there are approx 6 month to go

[chimera]

Typically incumbents with approval ratings in the mid forties and lower have a tough time being re-elected. Kerry's marks aren't much better but then again they don't need to be much better, just better enough. The Bush team needs to take these results seriously and start making headway toward turning this around. Business as usual isn't going to cut it.

The question is, is this the trough, the nadir of his ratings, with nowhere to go but up, or is Bush teetering on the edge of a cliff, ready to take a serious tumble into the low forties or even thirty percentiles. Many on FR would like to believe the former. Unless the Bush advisers can come up with something dramatic to turn this trend around, I'm leaning toward the latter at this point, based on my own "polling" in a battleground state (i.e., listening to what people around me are saying).

[AmishDude]

pre-Berg?

[RoseofTexas]

Finally! Our fears are coming true concerning the STUPID sheeple. The media pressWHORES have finally manipulated the SHEELE! The sheele are soooo easily brainwashed! A while back I gave them the benefit of the doubt, not any more, they're so stupid it's sad :( I thought they would see right through the presswhores agenda against our President that they would continue to support him... MAN! What a waste, they deserve Ketchupman!

[AntiGuv]

... I know for a fact that Rasmussen is the most accurate polling company.

Did you get that fact from Rasmussen's final 2000 election poll released on Election Day that had GWB beating AlGore by 9%?

[NYC Republican]

Fine, I know he did well with the Iowa primary, but I'm still skeptical...

By the way, SKerry just won the endorsement of the 12,000 member Internatinal Brotherhood of Police Officers, which backed President Bush in 2000. Not a huge organization, but it's symbolic. This is getting really scary.