Posted on 05/14/2004 2:00:26 PM PDT by KQQL
That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.
If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.
Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.
The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday.
The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
W. up 1.7% in the RCP 3way average. This new poll will probably make it closer to a tie. Approval RCP average is 48.2%
What really strikes me is the TIPP/IBD Poll... completely at odds with these CBS/CNN polls... the TIPP poll shows high approval, 5% lead for W., and consumer confidence going up...
Someone is wrong..
so?
I don't get too discouraged when I see polls this far out.
Just remember how fast Dean's overwhelming lead in the polls was changed.
I'm counting on Kerry for a "Dean" moment sometime between now and the election!!!
Seriously though, with all the negative press, don't you think it's amazing the President has been able to maintain even somewhat comparable numbers with Kerry.
RASMMUSSEN POLLS ARE JUNK !!!!!!!!!
Don't waste your time with them
The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans
JUNK POLL.
Rassmussen was the most accurate poling company and they leave out Nader.
and Powell before the U.N. (among others)
Oh, come on! I was just today looking at a May 1984 poll showing Mondale tied nationally with Reagan. The national unemployment rate back then was 7.4.
Didn't Reagan win that one in a squeaker? ;-)
Polls had Reagan and Mondale tied in May of 1984 and Mondale ahead in July of 1984.
But as others have pointed out, approval # may be more meaningful than horse race numbers. I am agnostic on that theory at this time.
JUNK ? Your brain my be on junk I know for a fact that Rasmussen is the most accurate polling company.
0% Undecideds?????
I know Regan/Mondale were tied at 49% but not sure when in the campaign that was, seems like it was so about this time thought
lol..thank you.
Ayres McHenry is a Republican polling firm and Rasmussen is not directly comparable to the others because he includes both Strongly Approve and Slightly Approve in his poll (thus some who might say Don't Know or even Disapprove, otherwise, will pick Slightly Approve) and he counts only people who give an answer (thus elevating both numbers).
In other words, the 'real' approval rating that everyone is used to is an average of: CBS News 44%; Gallup 46%; Pew 44%; Fox 49%; CNN/Time 46% -- five-poll average 45.8% (disapproval 48.0%).
Why can a candidate score only 1% above his approval rating? It makes sense to me that the approval rating would bear a close relationship to the candidate's electoral showing, but I don't see any basis for this hard-and-fast 1% rule. Perhaps empirical study bears it out; I don't know.
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I wouldn't include CBS ... overnight of adults... I'd include the others you mention and drop Ayres.. think that makes an avg of 47% if you include TIPP.
FYI- in the 2000 election, Rasmussen predicted (Portrait of America Poll) that President Bush would win by 9%. 9%!!!... You tell me that his polls are accurate.
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