Poll: Support for Bush, Iraq war dropping (Kerry 49% W 44% Nader 6%-W approval @ 46%)

cnn.com ^ | 05/14/04 | cnn.

[KQQL]

That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.

If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.

Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.

The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday.

The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points

[onyx]

Exactly right.
Terror is the issue,
and GWB will win on it alone
if need be.

Actually the economy is soaring.
He's due for a landslide win,
and with LONG coattails.

[John Lenin]

Think about the families of the 300,000 dead in the mass graves, that trial is going to make the OJ trail look like a side show.

[chimera]

You're right, it is discouraging. We're in opposite situations but have come to the same conclusion. I grew up in NJ. When I left, it was Republican, more or less. Now its strongly Rat. Used to be the area where I live now was reliably Republican. No longer. Gore won my county in 2000, one of the few outside of NE Ohio that he won. It's worse now. There are pro-Kerry and I Hate Bush bumper stickers popping up like the recent crop of dandelions on my lawn.

There is a tremendous undertow in the media against Bush and Republicans in general. Always has been, but you're right, this year it is stronger than ever. We saw something like it in the '92 campaign. The media was just determined to get Bush Sr. out of there at all costs, even to the point of foisting a lying, womanizing scumbag on the country for eight long, weary years. We're facing similar prospects now, but instead of a lying, womanizing hillbilly, we're getting a traitorous, elitist gigolo. But that won't matter to the media and the Rats. They just hate Bush. Something about the Bush family that they just hate, I guess. I know they hated Reagan, too, but the hatred directed toward both G W. Bush and his Father is just ferocious. I don't understand it, because George H. W. Bush was certainly no mainstream conservative.

[CWOJackson]

I am sure all the I-hate-Bush types are wetting themselves in joy.

[FA14]

I still don't see how a trial run by a governemnt and court system that has never had a trail is going to be run smoothly. I fear it will look like a case run-a-muck...and most of the coverage will be about how terrible the trail has been run...(over shadowing the real news....which is what Americans need to hear and thus with that helping GWB).

[FairOpinion]

If you want me to apologize, I will, but I didn't say or imply, as far as my intent went, that you were being misleading, the thought didn't even cross my mind.

As far as I am concerned, what you said and the data you posted underlined the point I was trying to make, that polls of "adults" are significantly less meaningful, than the media would like us to believe.

As you said, when they polled "likely voters" the error was much higher -- but as far as I could tell, they did not post the actual numbers they got from likely voters, or did I miss that?

[Integrityrocks]

"If I have the brainpower of a moth, then you have the brain power of a A$$"

I thought profanity wasn't allowed here. I'm offended. Please clean it up.

[AntiGuv]

...did I miss that?

The election match-up figures are based on the subset of 563 likely voters, with a MOE of 4.1 percent.

[boxsmith13]

1001 Adults instead of likely voters meand the real poll is probably Kerry +1-2 instead of +5.

Was watching CNN at a restuarant tonight, made me ill. THey talked about how Nader supporters in NH were going to vote for Kerry. THey didnt mention just how many Nader supporters those were but Rush this afternoon went a little deeper int othe story. Turns out it was 15 , yup 15 Nader supportersat UNH.

CNN wonders why their ratings are dropping. CNN must think their audienceare stupid and have no other sources of information.

[John Lenin]

Kerry won't hold a candle to Bush in the debates. Bush towers over him in credibility, moral leadership and personality. I have seen liberals look the other way when Kerry speaks, they will vote for him but they are too excited about him. Kerry was really the Anybody But Dean candidate. I hope his poll numbers stay high all the way up to the election.

[boxsmith13]

"W/O Nader
Kerry 51.9%
Bush 47.0%
Others 1.1%"


that is not a close race

[AntiGuv]

This is getting kinda funny, but here's what the article says (for the umpteenth time):

He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush.

Did anyone but me actually read the article?

[boxsmith13]

"Wonder if Soros is buying up oil futures????"

interesting point

[John Lenin]

I think you are wrong, it's not going to be a sham. It's kind of liberal of you to have such low expectations of them.

[cohokie]

My thought on all of this is that everyone here is applying static analysis to the current electoral situation. Sure Bush had a bad month, the question is will it be bad in September / October. To assume everything is going to "stay bad" for 6 more months is nuts. There are a number of things that can may happen:
- Bin Laden MAY get captured
- Iraq MAY stabilize - if you notice the trend line in violence it once again has gone down over the last few weeks
- Iran may have it's Nuclear weapons program forcibly dismantled by IAF and some cruise missiles
- The patriot act may come up for authorization again and Kerry may vote against it
etc.

my point is that we do not know what the future holds, so to make predictions based upon current polling is ill-advised ... take it from the democrats who lost in 2002 when they were sure to keep the Senate and gain ground in the house as later as September of 2002.

[SquirrelKing]

In another poll:

TASTES GREAT! = 48%
LESS FILLING! = 46%
UNDECIDED = 6%

[jimbo123]

Key dates:

— July 26-29, 2004: Democratic National Convention, Boston

— Aug. 14-29, 2004: Summer Olympic Games, Athens, Greece

— Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004: Republican National Convention, New York City

— Sept. 30, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at the University of Miami, Miami

— Oct. 5, 2004: Proposed vice presidential debate at Case Western University, Cleveland

— Oct. 8, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis

— Oct. 13, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Arizona State University, Tempe

[boxsmith13]

"Polls had Reagan and Mondale tied in May of 1984 and Mondale ahead in July of 1984"

Can we pleasestop this nonesense????


Ronald Reagan ad a 54% approval rating in Gallup in May 1984. Out of 18 polls he lead in 17. HTe one poll where he was 46-48 to Mondale occurred right after the DEM convention but before the GOP convention. That single poll was a massive outlier. These polls showing Kerry ahead are not.


I expect that Bush 43, unlikeBush 41 and Carter will not give up on the race and will like Truman fight to the end.

[John Lenin]

48% Say Bush Better Leader

35% Name Kerry

Rasmussen

[boxsmith13]

"I'm counting on Kerry for a "Dean" moment sometime between now and the election!!!"

he's had like 10 of them and so far it hasnt hurt. Ive noticed Kerry has gotten a bit better at campaigning than he was a month ago