Posted on 05/14/2004 8:52:10 AM PDT by So Cal Rocket
Bush 45% Kerry 47% Other 4% Not Sure 4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Friday May 14, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John F. Kerry with 47% of the vote and President George W. Bush earning 45%.
Both candidates have stayed within 3 percentage points of the 45% mark every single day for ten weeks.
Other Rasmussen Reports survey data shows that half of all Americans expect the situation in Iraq to get worse over the next six months. Also, most Americans believe that the soldiers involved in Iraqi prisoner abuse should be court-martialed. Only 31% of Americans believe Defense Secretary Rumsfeld should resign.
Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will provide updated information as to whether voters prefer Bush or Kerry when it comes to national defense and the economy.
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While the election numbers have remained stable, the President's ratings for handling the situation with Iraq have declined. Also, just 38% give the President good or excellent marks for handling the economy.
The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Results were not posted Monday because Rasmussen Reports did not conduct survey interviews on Mothers' Day.
Most Americans now say it is unlikely that Iraq will emerge as a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy. Rasmussen Reports polling also found that just 46% of voters believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror.
As Americans assess the economy, geopolitical events have overwhelmed Friday's report of job creation. The Rasmussen Consumer Index, a daily measure of the nation's economic confidence, has fallen for four straight days. Normally, that Index would have made double digit gains following a better than expected employment report.
A survey completed Wednesday and Thursday found that 48% of Americans believe the Iraqi prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib represents an isolated event. However 29% believe such practices are fairly widespread. At the same time, public preference for Bush over Kerry on national defense issues has fallen to its lowest level of the year.
The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Methodology
These polls are all meaningless, considering that we don't have a POPULAR vote, we have an ELECTORAL vote.
Job approval dropped 1 point to 51, but Economic Confidence numbers are up.
Truly sad if President Bush has to rely on a Electoral victory again. If he can't beat Kerry in the Popular vote, he shouldn't be President. And no, I am not talking about rewriting the constitution. Losing to Kerry in the Popular vote would be a huge embarrassment.
The pendulum swings again.
" Truly sad if President Bush has to rely on a Electoral victory again. If he can't beat Kerry in the Popular vote, he shouldn't be President. And no, I am not talking about rewriting the constitution. Losing to Kerry in the Popular vote would be a huge embarrassment."
I disagree.
Bush lost the popular vote last time - but he won 30 states, and Gore won 20. After all, we are a Federal Republic.
The electoral system is in place to prevent the large urban states from having disproportionate representation.
DemocRats hate to protect the rights of the minority when it isn't them. ;)
Well Ohio is still dangerous
Kerry is beating Bush there and that could be the key to this whole thing
conversely PA is still in Bush column. I am hoping for a big boost for BUsh once the economy starts to really solidify in the publics mind
hopefully gas will come down as well
I'm an eternal optimist, but this and the Oregon poll suggest that Bush is in a funk that he can do little about---that economic perceptions and the war must both improve for his numbers to come back. We'll know a lot after the June 30 handover of power.
Legally and constitutionally, you're completely right, of course. But in terms of any ability to command policy initiative, I think Bush absolutely MUST win the popular vote, and really needs to out-poll both Kerry and Nader to shut these a-holes up.
I agree. He needs an electoral win and over 50% of the popular vote. Otherwise we will get 4 more years of how he isn't a legitimate President. The press will harp on it, and it will continue to make it harder to accomplish anything.
Also, a popular win enhances our chances of strengthening control of the House and Senate.
I agree. Bush is in a trough right now. I just hope this represents his low point. It could go either way -- he recovers or he freefalls into Carter territory. I strongly suspect he will not go the way of Carter. Bush has so much more going for him than Carter ever did.
How many of these polls were taken before Berg's beheading???
The only thing these polls show is that we live in a nation of morons...well, at least 62% of them are morons.
You don't fire a president when the economy is improving..and it is (look at all of the numbers)
I doubt Kerry is ahead in Ohio. I also doubt Bush is ahead by 12 in Wisconsin, or within 1 in California. You can't believe everything you read.
I'm also not conviced Bush is in a low. His RCP national average is 1.7. If you average the last 45 national polls, the average comes to 1.7. The Rasmussen tracking poll hasn't shown any movement. I think Bush is holding onto a small lead.
The only thing these polls show is that we live in a nation of morons...well, at least 62% of them are morons.
As I said on a thread a few days ago... I would love to see someone cross-correllate these two questions:
1. Is the economy (a) excellent, (b) good, (c) poor, or (d) terrible.
2. Is your primary news source for economic news (a) Network Television [ABCNBCCBS], (b) Newspaper [NYT, LAT, WP], (c) News Magazines [Time, Newsweek], or (d) National Business Periodicals [WSJ, Barrons, Investor's Daily].
My guess is there is a strong correlation between those who think the economy is bad to those who get their news from the Left Wing News Media (a, b and c of Question 2).
Are you kidding. It would give certain political and newspeople something to complain about for another four years. Who knows, maybe you, too.
Well, in poll after poll, Bush has a solid 40%, and the level of excitement about him remains very high among that 40%---not at all like JC.
This being the case we could Have Kerry Being Elected but losing the popular vote. How is that for irony!
That's a great idea. That would be a great question for some group like Accuracy in Media or the Media Research Center to poll on. Forward the suggestion to Rush. Maybe he'll pay for another Frank Luntz polling question.
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