In Public’s Eyes, Kerry and Bush at Parity on Iraq

Gallup News Service ^ | May 12, 2004 | Frank Newport

[RWR8189]

Kerry leads on the economy, Bush on handling terrorism

PRINCETON, NJ -- The American public is roughly split down the middle in terms of whether President George W. Bush or likely Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry would do the best job of handling the situation in Iraq. This marks a substantial change from two months ago, when Bush enjoyed a 15-point lead over Kerry on this issue. At the same time, Americans are significantly more likely to see Kerry, rather than Bush, as better able to handle the economy, while the president retains his positioning advantage against Kerry in terms of handling terrorism. All of this results in a situation in which the two candidates are essentially tied in the race for president among likely voters, although Kerry has moved out to a slight lead over Bush among registered voters.

Trial-Heat Ballot

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted May 7-9, shows that Bush and Kerry would be in a neck-and-neck race if the presidential election were held today.

From a broad perspective, this represents little significant change over the last several months. From late March to the current survey, Kerry's percentage of support from likely voters has been within a narrow range between 45% and 49%. Bush's support has ranged only between 48% and 51% of likely voters during the same time.

 

Presidential Election 2004:
Bush vs. Kerry Trial Heat
among likely voters

The lack of change in the intentions of likely voters is perhaps surprising given that Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to its lowest level of his administration -- 46%. It appears that while the president's positioning in the eyes of voters has become more vulnerable -- as indicated by this job approval rating and the drop in support for U.S. involvement in Iraq -- Kerry has yet to take full advantage of it.

The current parity in the presidential race is partly a result of the fact that Bush is doing better, relatively speaking, among likely voters -- individuals Gallup says would be most likely to actually vote if the election were held today.

Bush does not fare as well among the larger group of all adult Americans who are registered to vote. Kerry has a slight 50% to 44% lead over Bush among this group. Kerry's percentage of the vote among registered voters increased from 47% to 50% between the May 2-4 poll and the May 7-9 poll, while Bush's decreased from 47% to 44%.

 

Presidential Election 2004:
Bush vs. Kerry Trial Heat
among registered voters

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

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[The G Man]

Regarding: polls. After 6 straight weeks of getting absolutely beat on by the media, Bush's numbers are the worst they've been ... and he still slightly leads Kerry ... well, that ain't good news for the Heinz boy toy.

[Izzy Dunne]

split down the middle in terms of whether President George W. Bush or likely Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry would do the best job of handling the situation in Iraq.
[...]
the president retains his positioning advantage against Kerry in terms of handling terrorism.

Somebody is splitting hairs here - seems to me like the difference between "handling the situation in Iraq" and "handling terrorism" is pretty small.

[cajungirl]

crazy.

[rightazrain]

If this misconception continues, the Bush campaign has plenty of Kerry soundbites to fight back with.

[rightazrain]

If this misconception continues, the Bush campaign has plenty of Kerry soundbites to fight back with.

[uncbob]

If this misconception continues, the Bush campaign has plenty of Kerry soundbites to fight back with.

JUst shows that the majority of Americans fall for the daily ration of crap being spewed by the left wing media or they would already know this

[texasflower]

Actually, I think this is courtesy of our little perverts in Abu Gharib.

So, it should settle down easily pretty soon and once June 30 comes, it will help.

Hopefully, the transfer will be carried out with some level of Iraqi National fanfare.

Those would be dramatic and pride inspiring videos.

[Izzy Dunne]

split down the middle in terms of whether President George W. Bush or likely Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry would do the best job of handling the situation in Iraq.
[...]
the president retains his positioning advantage against Kerry in terms of handling terrorism

I'm really puzzled by this - why is there this disconnect between Iraq and terrorism?

It's 48-45 Bush on Iraq, but 55-38 Bush on terrorism..

Is it ABCNNBCBS?

Is it Kerry?
Is it Michael Moore and his ilk?

What?

[DrDeb]

I posted the following comments on another thread in response to the recent Gallup/CNN/USAToday and IBD/TIPP polls:


"While I am not a professional pollster, I do have access to such experts and have talked with them extensively about the MANY problems currently facing the polling industry.

1.) With the advent of sophisticated 'blocking' technology and the proliferation of cell phones (pollsters can NOT legally call cell phones), pollsters are facing response rates as low as 20%.

For this reason (and some other reasons that I don't have time to discuss), most pollsters now believe that to generate a VALID sampling, they must conduct their surveys over the course of 5-10 days. [Pew Research just did a major study on this subject]. Such a timeframe eliminates random (and not so random) variations created by weekend/weekday polling strategies.

2.) According to my pollster colleagues (off the record of course), weekend/holiday polling that focuses on 'adults' tends to skew young and poor -- advantage Democrats. However, pollsters know that they can mitigate against such an outcome by simply using the '5-10 day rule'.

BOTTOMLINE:
How can two polling organizations generate such disparate results during a comparable timeframe?

Two primary reasons:
--IBD/TIPP surveyed approximately 1,000 'registered voters'//Gallup surveyed approximately 1,000 'adults' with tiny subsets of registered voters and likely voters (the latter had MOEs between 4 and 5%)
--IBD/TIPP surveyed over the course of 7 days (controlling the impact of random variation) // Gallup surveyed over the course of 2 1/2 days including Saturday and Sunday.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?!"



For sanity sake, I encourage you to read the following article detailing the results of the recent InvestorsBusinessDaily/TIPP poll:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0512/p03s02-uspo.html

[Badeye]

It will be interesting to see how the numbers shift in the wake of the Berg beheading. What I have been hearing around my small town, and from my wife is the following:

"Why aren't they showing this video of Mr Berg being brutally killed? After making me watch for three weeks these photos from the Iraqi prison? Why aren't they showing the video of Americans jumping from the WTC? Why aren't they showing the video of the contractors being dismembered, and hung from overpasses? Why are they not showing the Palestinians dancing in the streets on 9/11?"

There are approximately 1 MILLION Islamic fundementalist now dedicating to killing every American on the planet. They don't care what political party you belong to. They don't care what your religious beliefs are. They only care about killing "the infidels".

The media not explaining this in detail, over and over and over, is setting us up for a much bigger calamity than we experienced on 9/11, folks.

(thanks for adding me to the ping list)

[VRWC_minion]

I'm really puzzled by this - why is there this disconnect between Iraq and terrorism?

We want Bush to fight the war and Kerry to keep the peace.

[hobbes1]

All of the Above Izzy....

[thoughtomator]

Bush will recover his lead as soon as Kerry opens his mouth, never fear.