[MiniCooperChick]

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

Is this guy stupid? I know nothing about pollsters since I lived out of the country since 1998, but this statement really jumps out! If there are few undecideds there will be no "break to the challenger". Duh!

[cripplecreek]

Go and register with Zogby, they have both a free and pay service. You will be suprised at how much information is required for registration. Zogby knows exactly who they are polling.

Also be aware that Zogby polls are commissioned polls. This means that groups pay them to conduct polls and combined with the information Zogby has they can pick and choose who is polled.

[cardinal4]

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race.

Despite an unprecedented media onslaught, Bush's numbers have remained constant. Take Bush in November, give the points.

[aynrandfreak]

People tend to think that the person that they want to win, will win.

[dartuser]

Well if Zogby thinks the economy is the number one issue, according to the people he polled, ... then W wins easily.

Wasnt there a Yale economics prof that runs an election model ?? ... His research at Yale predicts that W wins with 60% of the vote ...

[Qwinn]

"His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago."

What a stupid twit he is then. This is -awful- news for Kerry. Given the way the electoral college works, and given a near-tie in the overall popular vote, no candidate should want one more vote than is necessary in any given state that is already going his way. If Kerry's support is overly concentrated in a handful of states, as these numbers indicate, he's going to lose the electoral vote by a landslide. The fact that Bush is still maintaining a tie, with less support in his "lock" states, means he has -more- support than Kerry does in the battleground states.

Man, talk about spinning out of control.

Qwinn

[sport]

He means that kerry is a good liar.

He is aided and abeted by another liar that has no peer; the mainstream media.

[PatrickHenry]

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

Zobby is misunderstanding his own data. His figures, if we can believe them, 47 to 44, show a virtual tie -- and that's in a two man race without the Nader factor. If there are very few undecideds, then where in the world is Kerry going to find the votes to win? If it's now a tie (in irrelevant the popular vote) now, Nader will make the difference. And so will the improving economy. Iraq will be in Iraqi hands soon, so we won't be "occupiers" for very long. It will only get worse for Kerry.

Zogby doesn't discuss this, but Kerry's extra lead in states where he's already winning don't mean a thing. It's electoral votes that matter, not the popular vote. Zogby doesn't analyze the results in the Electoral College, presumably because he doesn't like what he sees there.

[sport]

Only a fool would vote for kerry but as bill cinton demonestrated, unfortunately, America has a lot of fools.

[Mat_Helm]

This is good news because Zogby is so wrong and biased for democtratic candidates in the last few elections that his predictions are the curse of death. Just ask Al gore.

[arasina]

We're going to PROVE Zogby wrong! This is all just a bunch of pre-election POLL-ution.

[eleni121]

Zogby has taken one bungee jump too many.

Wishing it were so won't make it so jerk!

[babaloo999]

Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election."

Maybe he should find that helmet.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Notice that 3 of the five "tossup" states are Gore 2000. Notice also that 2 states change hands in this, NH and PA. Of those two, PA has the upper hand in electoral votes. Go to Dales' website and you learn that Kerry is leading by one in California, a state he should have wrapped up. W/O California, it is impossible for Kerry to win. It's that critical. Again, it looks like Kerry is doing a great job of losing this election.

[Dark Glasses and Corncob Pipe]

Bush will win.

And THAT is THAT.

[ATOMIC_PUNK]

Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November

Note to self : Prepare for war with Islmofacsists and UN Communists on our own soil buy as many guns and ammo as possible

[TomEwall]

Investor's Daily Business/Christian Science Monitor's lates poll shows Bush ahead by 5. I posted this under their title (from IBD) "Bush Widens Lead"

[RoseofTexas]

The "anyone but Bush" crowd is a HUGH ruse by the RATS and mediawhores! I have yet to come across ANYONE who hates W with the vemon the presswhores keep telling us about! JUST wait until W KICKS ketchupman's A&& in the debates! That'll be W's TKO!

[Pukin Dog]

How many times does this BS story have to be posted?

[Irene Adler]

Saying that Kerry is a good finisher in elections means absolutely nothing since he has run only in a very, very, very democratic state. Of course, he finished well! Kerry has never even run in a real election contest, but only in Massachusetts where democrats win almost all the time.

Furthermore, name me a sitting president who has lost an election in a growing economy. Things look rough now, but in Nov. when all is said and done, Bush will win handily.