[Qwinn]

"His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago."

What a stupid twit he is then. This is -awful- news for Kerry. Given the way the electoral college works, and given a near-tie in the overall popular vote, no candidate should want one more vote than is necessary in any given state that is already going his way. If Kerry's support is overly concentrated in a handful of states, as these numbers indicate, he's going to lose the electoral vote by a landslide. The fact that Bush is still maintaining a tie, with less support in his "lock" states, means he has -more- support than Kerry does in the battleground states.

Man, talk about spinning out of control.

Qwinn

[TomEwall]

You make a good point. If Kerry is up by 17 in the blue states, but Bush only by 10 in the red, then, assuming Z's was correct that Kerry is ahead by 3 right now, if Bush pulled even then he'd be way ahead in the battleground states because Kerry would be giving away 7%.

Good catch!

[Wyatt's Torch]

That is one hell of an astute observation on the numbers. The math in my head appears to be right. Well done.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

What a stupid twit he is then. This is -awful- news for Kerry. Given the way the electoral college works, and given a near-tie in the overall popular vote, no candidate should want one more vote than is necessary in any given state that is already going his way. If Kerry's support is overly concentrated in a handful of states, as these numbers indicate, he's going to lose the electoral vote by a landslide. The fact that Bush is still maintaining a tie, with less support in his "lock" states, means he has -more- support than Kerry does in the battleground states.

Good catch, this would be a mathematical certainty I would think.

I would add that unlike Gore, Kerry will not be competitive, or at least have a winning chance anywhere in the South. And yes I don't think Florida is going Kerry at all, a highly popular Bush as gov, excellent job market compared to most places, 2002 election results all point Bush's way. If Kerry spends money in the South, and we know he will, its money completely wasted.

OTOH, Kerry may cut his losses here and focus on the MidWest battleground states but I doubt he will give up so easily on Florida.