[TomEwall]

You make a good point. If Kerry is up by 17 in the blue states, but Bush only by 10 in the red, then, assuming Z's was correct that Kerry is ahead by 3 right now, if Bush pulled even then he'd be way ahead in the battleground states because Kerry would be giving away 7%.

Good catch!

[Vinomori]

Turnout is a factor here and unlike Clinton Kerry does not inspire. He does not excite. Even the black bloc is whining about how he doesn't relate. Lackluster candidates still get their poll votes but the turnout factor is heavily influenced by the X Factor: passion. Kerry has a hard time with this factor. Bush wins.