ELECTION 2004 Zogby: Kerry will win Pollster points to 4 reasons he sees Democrat victory

WorldNetDaily.com ^ | May 10, 2004 | WorldNetDaily.com

[COEXERJ145]

Boxsmith is nothing but a troll. The sooner he is ZOTTED, the better.

[Cold Heat]

What part about "they are not going to let this be known until election day", did you not understand.

They are not telling the pollers.

I have witnessed this personally and I believe the number that I stated.

If it will hold until November, I feel like the phrase, "Bush democrat" will be used for the first time.

[CharacterCounts]

If it walks like a troll and talks like a troll, it's pretty safe to assume its a troll.

[oceanview]

the latest Gallup poll showed 51% of americans still think we are in recession. as insane as that sounds, it shows you what media bias can do. the high gas prices are effecting that number.

[FA14]

SHUT THE FK UP....My god...with the DU troll BS....I have been a member since before the 2000 race....me and my fiancee (e_seales)....However, my other freep name was *spiked*....because I had written some "bad GWB comments"...concerning how terrible of a campagin he was running early.....(and thus I was banned)...

People like you are such children....debate logic and facts...stop with "when is his sign up date"..."he is a troll"....GROW UP...

[Cold Heat]

The country is more liberal today than it has been since 1964.

The viking Kitties are going to have fun with you!

LOL!

[Vinomori]

Turnout is a factor here and unlike Clinton Kerry does not inspire. He does not excite. Even the black bloc is whining about how he doesn't relate. Lackluster candidates still get their poll votes but the turnout factor is heavily influenced by the X Factor: passion. Kerry has a hard time with this factor. Bush wins.

[Mat_Helm]

This is good news because Zogby is so wrong and biased for democtratic candidates in the last few elections that his predictions are the curse of death. Just ask Al gore.

[arasina]

We're going to PROVE Zogby wrong! This is all just a bunch of pre-election POLL-ution.

[eleni121]

Zogby has taken one bungee jump too many.

Wishing it were so won't make it so jerk!

[TomEwall]

I think Carter's approval numbers were in the low 30's at this point. Bush's are in the upper 40's. The reasons I gave for this election being like '96 were:
1) Polarizing president.
2) Strong economy.
3) 3rd party candidate which hurts incumbant.

Nobody likes Kerry. Lots of people liked Reagan. Similarly Dole was not a candidate people were fond of.

What's keeping the polls close is the war and the media. If Iraq runs badly, I think Kerry has a chance of pulling out a squeaker (although it's not clear what will people will do since defence is a traditionally GOP issue -- they may back Bush anyway. If the economy took an unexpected sour turn, that would certainly be good for Kerry, and is probably his best chance of winning. If the economy goes as projected, 4 to 4.5 GDP increase, continuing to create 250,000+ jobs, etc., it's hard to see Bush losing without Iraq turning into chaos.

[TomEwall]

That's true. I forgot about '76. That was an odd election because all third parties combined didn't even get 1%, so winning the popular vote in and of itself would put you over 50%.

[Cold Heat]

vote for the Eddie Haskell candidate.

That fits pretty good!

[FA14]

But Kerry isn't going to win all Gore States....He is in a fight for his life in PA.....He is in a dead heat in MI and NJ.....WI,MN & WA (all GORE States)...are still close and GWB could pick any one of these off...

As for Kerry winning GWB States...No way is FL (GWB will win FL by 7pts...mark my words)...OH is a toss-up....but WV is polling GWB (and they don't like NE'ers)..

NH...toss up as well..

[boxsmith13]

" think Carter's approval numbers were in the low 30's at this point."

youre right


A also agree thatthe economy will be muvh more visibly better in 3-4 months than it is today

[Wyatt's Torch]

That is one hell of an astute observation on the numbers. The math in my head appears to be right. Well done.

[Zechariah11]

This is the worst thread I have read in months. Who are all these Johnny-Come-Lately "inside-baseball" experts in poll analysis with negative, b*tchy attitudes?

[FA14]

Totally agree with you....that the media are running down the economy nightly....and the GWB camp has done a "terrible" job on setting the premise of the economy (oh wait, that gets you banned on here for saying that...and surly I'm a DU troll)....

Nope...that is just the facts...when over 50% of Americans still think we are in a recession that was OVER 2 1/2 years ago....Someone has done a terrible job at getting the facts out...and that is the GWB camp...

[NeonKnight]

Add 27 for FL, 20 for OH, 4 for NH and 5 for WV gets you to 316....I dont believe Kerry will win any southern states.

I dunno, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Earth changes happen faster nowadays, but last time I looked at a map, Florida was in the south.

[arasina]

With those pick-and-choose standards for polling, they may as well sit back, avoid the expense of an actual survey, and then tell the people who are paying for a poll exactly what they want to believe.