2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, May 3, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	98.0	9	0
Alaska	95.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	12.5	0	55
Colorado	82.0	9	0
Connecticut	6.0	0	7
Delaware	18.0	0	3
District of Columbia	0.5	0	3
Florida	60.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	8.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	13.0	0	21
Indiana	90.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	93.0	6	0
Kentucky	89.0	8	0
Louisiana	84.0	9	0
Maine	19.0	0	4
Maryland	17.0	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	37.0	0	17
Minnesota	36.0	0	10
Mississippi	95.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	92.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	70.0	5	0
New Hampshire	60.0	4	0
New Jersey	14.0	0	15
New Mexico	56.0	5	0
New York	8.0	0	31
North Carolina	85.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	56.0	20	0
Oklahoma	96.0	7	0
Oregon	40.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	59.0	21	0
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	90.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	86.0	11	0
Texas	95.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	6.0	0	3
Virginia	88.0	13	0
Washington	25.0	0	11
West Virginia	65.0	5	0
Wisconsin	48.0	0	10
Wyoming	97.0	3	0
Totals		304	234

[Arkie2]

I saw on a post last week that the color blue is assigned to the incumbent party, hence the blue color here vs. the red in the last election.

[AmericanInTokyo]

I think Floriduh should be at 50% 50% between those two. Not 60% for Bush.
In that case, in a squeaker as last time, if the state this time went to the Dems, that would give (under the stated scenario) Bush only 3 votes more to snag the Electoral College. At any rate, either of these two men could win, and the thing could also be thrown into the Electoral College, with electors traded all over the place.

[marblehead17]

ping

[macrahanish #1]

Bush's chance of winning PA is NOWHERE near 59% after his and Santorum's support of the RINO Specter in the primary.
I'll still vote for Bush, but he and the RNC will get no time or money from us.

[GMMAC]

In Canada, the UK and other countries blue is always rightly associated with conservative parties and causes.
Apparently sometime in the '70's, the U.S. media - primarily the then "major" networks - came up with the color scheme now used stateside so that their RAT buddies wouldn't be painted in their true colors. In short, still more liberal indoctrination/double-speak.
At least this is what I was told be several U.S. based freepers when I asked this same question a few months ago. It's probably also why the expression "true blue" has fallen from popular usage.

[proudpapa]

I can't fault Bush for supporting an incumbent republican who has a proven record of beating STATEWIDE a democratic challenger versus an unproven congressman like Toomey, who has never run for a statewide office..

Even though Arlen is a RINO. And a disaster on the judiciary... Would you prefer Hoeffel and Kerry to win in PA and possibly end up with Kerry in the White House???

Who do you want nominating Judges???

and the final thought for the day....Do you think liberals are donating time and money to the DNC because they are wild about Kerry??? No! Most of them despise Bush.

If you have time and money that can help, this is not the time to get stupid because your candidate lost in the primaries.

[democrats_nightmare]

That was a good response....always better to shoot for the high objectives on an election and not let the little stuff trip you up that is for sure. You shot one in the 10 ring.

[sully777]

Anyone ask the question whether a Hildacoup d' etat at the Dem Convention would change numbers?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Lets see what happens to John F** Kerry after this has its impact:

Kerry 'Unfit to be Commander-in-Chief', Say Former Military Colleagues

[ArGee]

Not very many close calls - Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa = 22 votes total.

PA was listed as a pretty close call (59%) which really surprises me. I know that PA will go for Bush because he worked so hard to support that liberal RINO Arlen Specter over the conservative Pat Toomey in our Senate race. That guarantees that Arlen will deliver PA for Bush. That state needs to be bumped to 100% and colored darkest blue.

Shalom.

[ArGee]

If you have time and money that can help, this is not the time to get stupid because your candidate lost in the primaries.

We Pennsylvanians won't get stupid, but we are still hopping mad.

Not that our candidate lost.

We're mad that our Barry Bonds decided to play for the other team.

It would have been OK if he'd have just sat out - but playing for the other team was infuriating, especially since we only lost by two runs.

All that said, we should cool down by November. We need permission to vent now.

Shalom.

[macrahanish #1]

Chuck Schumer has already said that if Bush nominates Specter for the federal judiciary, Specter can expect 100% 'rat backing.
If the Senate stands at 50-50, I expect Specter to pull a Jeffords.
Bush didn't win Pennsylvania in 2000. Why would he win in 2004?

[ought-six]

"Where did we lose 10 pts from last count? What state is now in the Red that was in the blue?"

Wisconsin.

[Mudboy Slim]

"Right's Winning"
(To be sung to R.E.M.'s "Nightswimming")

Fight Tyranny...Bold Warriors of the Right!!

We must ignore the Media Whore'd, they sold out long ago...
Spins the Truth backwards so the Sheeple doze.
Clinton, he ain't Right...to Tyrants, Liberty's a curse!
Nation needs The Right to lead her...we'll SLAUGHTER Hatred first...
That's our solemn pledge! Slick's goons must feel our might!!

Right's Winning...the Truth will come to light!!
Must make sure all the Sheeple understand.
We shan't let Traitors go...Bill Clinton must be caught!!
We'll avenge the Waco Slaughter...this Emperor, he's naked!
Bill's crimes won't go away...seek Justice ev'ryday!!
Right's winning...remember as we fight...
November's coming soon...Right's shooting for the moon!!

Slick, watch my dreams come true!!
Re-Impeached by Congress...convicted of Treason!!
Your vile style forever shunned...it's God's design...Right's Winning!!

Bill, your wife, she loathes you...Slick, we will soon judge...
Guilty of Vile Tyranny!! I sit here laughin' quietly...
MUD predicted this...Right's Winning!!

(Reprise)

Ignore the Left's protests...they love Slick 'cuz Left's ALL VILE!
Right's winning...come join the Noble Right...
Come join our Righteous Fight!!

FReegards...MUD

[proudpapa]

What is with this defeatist attitude.

"If the Senate stands at 50-50, I expect Specter to pull a Jeffords."

Does anyone really think the GOP won't pick up at least 2 more seats? Anyone?

[TomEwall]

Wisconsin spent most of the week in Bush's column at 52 (briefly at 55), but by the luck of the draw happened to be at 48 when this was posted.

[TomEwall]

I think they have Florida right. There are many reasons to think Florida is more pro-Bush than last time:
1) More republican new registrations
2) Strong economy in Florida
3) Popular gov is Bush's brother
4) Kerry not southern
5) Lieberman not on ticket
6) Bush has been strong on Israel
7) Prescription drug bill should help among elderly
8) Strong GOTV grass roots move for GOP than last time

[BSunday]

It's probably also why the expression "true blue" has fallen from popular usage.

Dang Leftists even mess up our language ! =)

[macrahanish #1]

I DO agree with you; the Senate will probably be 52-48 Republican (or better ).
But IF the Senate ends up 50-50, do you think Arlen will defect? The 'rats will be offering major inducements to the first defecror.