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Retreat, Hell! (Analysis of Fallujah situation and tactics)
Belmont Club ^ | May 1, 2004 | Wretchard

Posted on 05/01/2004 10:42:32 AM PDT by John Jorsett

The guesswork hasn't been too far off. From the beginning it seemed clear that an Iraqi component was always going to be needed in Fallujah, both to process civilians and restore order. On April 2nd, before Valiant Resolve was formally announced, the Belmont Club guess was that:

CPA Administrator Paul Bremer chose a graduation ceremony for Iraqi police cadets to vow that the incident "will not go unpunished", possibly because a large role has been assigned to the Iraqi police in the forthcoming operation. From these elements one can deduce the basic shape of the counterstroke. Since Fallujah and its anti-coalition forces are largely run on tribal (read Mafia) lines, the strategic goal will be to arrest the tribal leadership structure and other ringleaders such as imams. A secondary goal will be to capture the thousands of weapons and magazines that are bound to be present. This will require a block by block reduction of an entire city of 230,000 persons. Hence, a plentiful supply of Iraqi cops is needed for large-scale interrogation. And all this must be accomplished within the limits of acceptable collateral damage levels.

One of the risks to taking the town was always that the defenders would use the opportunity to stage their own Viking funeral pyre by torching the town and roasting as many civilians as they could with it. The answer, it seemed back in April 3 was:

However, if the Marines exert only gradual pressure, and use neighbors or Iraqi police from outside Fallujah to guide other neighbors into processing areas, the defenders will never be presented with a clear opportunity to precipitate a crisis. Once the Marines get the momentum of processing going, the tribal leaders will lose control and the whole structure will start to crumble. The Marines can exploit their physical domination by offering clemency or even rewards to those who rat out on other perps. The inner bastion of Fallujah will collapse like a termite-eaten post as each man looks out for himself.

It is in this context that the perplexing cycle of ceasefires punctuated by nocturnal assaults can be understood. The Corps, besides incorporating the Chinese word Gung Ho into it's vocabulary, may have finally proved to the Arabs that they can out-hudna anyone who ever stood on a patch of sand. By alternately throttling and releasing the enemy, or in cruder terms, by a process of talking and shooting, the USMC seems to have squeegeed the foe into the 'Golan' without ever precipitating the feared crisis. ("Like a cut flower in a vase, fair to see, yet doomed to die" -- Winston Churchill)

When the Press began trumpeting a humiliating Marine withdrawal and their ignominous replacement by Iraqi Fallujah Protection Army, the Belmont Club, although perplexed by the origins of the Fallujah Protection Army, still guessed that the Marines would not be withdrawn, as per innuendo, from around the 'Golan' cordon and that the Iraqis would be employed in stabilization and police duties simply because it was impossible for a force in contact with the enemy to be replaced by a unit which had yet to be constituted.

One of the most difficult operations of war is relieving a unit in contact with the enemy. It first of all requires the existence of the relief force. News accounts which suggest that this-still-to-be formed Fallujah Protection Army (FPA) will take over from the Marines, said to be evacuating "front line positions" within a few days, are only slightly less incredible than a report that Batman, the Hulk and Wolverine have joined the Navy to see the world. ... The most likely scenario is that the FPA will be given charge over city areas free from heavy fighting and assigned general police duties.

Although the appearance of the Fallujah Protection Army (FPA) and its effects still remain to be seen, the mystery of it origins has been solved at last. It appears to be a creature of the Marines themselves, tricked out in Iraqi uniform. This would go a long way toward explaining the kind of training Marines were providing to Iraqis in southeastern industrial area of the city. They were training locals who will be assigned police duties. This April 30 press release from CENTCOM is here quoted in full.

CAMP FALLUJAH, Iraq - As part of the overall effort to restore security and stability in Fallujah, the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force is overseeing the formation of the 1st Battalion of the Fallujah Brigade.

The mission of this interim organization, to be completely integrated with that of I MEF, is part of the ongoing aspiration to have Iraqi Security Forces fully cooperate with Coalition Forces to perform security tasks and, eventually, to assume responsibility for security and stability in Fallujah and other cities.

The Coalition objectives remain unchanged -- to eliminate armed groups, collect and positively control all heavy weapons, and turn over foreign fighters and disarm Anti-Coalition insurgents in Fallujah. The Coalition welcomes the assistance of the Iraqi forces, including the 1st Battalion of the Fallujah Brigade, in efforts to achieve these objectives.

Like most of the existing Iraqi Security Forces, this battalion will be recruited largely from former soldiers of the Iraqi Army. The battalion will be employed in Fallujah alongside the 1st MEF to assist in the return of peace and stability for the city. Their employment will facilitate the flow of support and foster rapid reconstruction, thereby stimulating the job market for citizens inside the city. The Battalion will function as a subordinate command under the operational control of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force, and 1st MEF will provide the resources and equipment necessary to ensure mission accomplishment by this force.

Until the battalion's units demonstrate a capability to man designated checkpoints and positions, Marines will continue to maintain a presence in and around Fallujah. Consistent with our duty to provide security, Coalition Forces will maintain their right of freedom of movement in all areas of the AOR. As calm is restored, families will be allowed to return to the city, and during the transition, the number of families allowed into the city on a daily basis will increase to 200.

After commencing the restoration of law and order inside the city of Fallujah, Iraqi security forces inside the city will assist police with investigations to identify the murderers and mutilators of the four American contractors on 31 March, and the criminals responsible for the 14 February attack on the Fallujah Police Station. When captured, those persons will be tried in the Iraqi judicial system.

If this interpretation proves to be accurate, it will have flowed directly from the basic operational requirements of Valiant Resolve. The goals of that operation would have been to root out enemy cells in Fallujah without massacring everyone in the city. This had to be accomplished against an active resistance schooled in the methods which brought the Russians to grief in Grozny. All with the final goal of wresting control of Fallujah from its gang leaders into the hands of an American-controlled Iraqi administration. And although the final victory remains to be won and 'Golan' still to be reduced, no one should ever, ever, call Marines Jarheads again without meaning it in irony.


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: afterbash; belmontclub; fallujah; iraq
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1 posted on 05/01/2004 10:42:33 AM PDT by John Jorsett
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To: John Jorsett
For an interesting treatise on the concept of hudna (which I had never heard of until this piece) go here.
2 posted on 05/01/2004 10:44:57 AM PDT by John Jorsett
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To: John Jorsett
Belmont Club has really become an asset. I go there daily to get a good, clearsighted analysis. It really helps after reading the hand wringing threads.
3 posted on 05/01/2004 10:47:13 AM PDT by McGavin999 (If Kerry can't deal with the "Republican Attack Machine" how is he going to deal with Al Qaeda)
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To: John Jorsett
I just posted the link to this EXCELLENT blog on another thread: It's heartening to finally read an intelligent, REASONED analysis of our current actions in Fallujah!!
4 posted on 05/01/2004 10:54:44 AM PDT by DrDeb
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To: John Jorsett; wretchard
It is a treat to read wretchard's sane analysis.
5 posted on 05/01/2004 10:59:09 AM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry's been AWOL for two decades on issues of National Security!)
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To: John Jorsett
The child has been handed the switch it selected & will now be taught it's correct application.
6 posted on 05/01/2004 11:02:32 AM PDT by GoLightly
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To: DrDeb
I just discovered Belmont Club about a week ago and I was blown away by the analysis; I haven't found anything comparable online. Unfortunately, it's hosted on blogspot.com, and the FR posting filter assumes that anything on blogspot is fluff, apparently, so it wants it on the General Interest forum. I resorted to using tinyurl.com to get it posted to News/Activism, where it belongs.
7 posted on 05/01/2004 11:03:37 AM PDT by John Jorsett
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To: John Jorsett
In honor of the man who made the phrase famous . . . .

"Retreat, Hell! I'm just advancing in the opposite direction!" he told a reporter when asked about his reversal of direction when surrounded by Chinese forces in Korea.

8 posted on 05/01/2004 11:10:04 AM PDT by PokeyJoe (Those who don't know history will repeat it.)
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To: Dog
FYI
9 posted on 05/01/2004 11:17:20 AM PDT by Molly Pitcher
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To: John Jorsett
Bump for wretchard. Thanks for posting this.
10 posted on 05/01/2004 11:20:52 AM PDT by michaelt
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To: John Jorsett
Yes, the USMC and the Iraq command is invovled in a complex and difficult situation. The mainstream press is unable to report very well on the situation because they only report through a single prism--BUSH BAD. To make Fallujah fit this concept the situation can only be reported one of two ways:
US losing or US commits war crimes. The situation on the ground is much more complex and we may be succeeding, only time will tell. More depressing than the elite media is the chicken littles on this site who should know better.




























11 posted on 05/01/2004 11:28:44 AM PDT by don'tbedenied
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I don't know if you have seen this but it looks interesting.
12 posted on 05/01/2004 11:29:11 AM PDT by Libertarianize the GOP (Ideas have consequences)
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To: John Jorsett
Once the Marines get the momentum of processing going, the tribal leaders will lose control and the whole structure will start to crumble. The Marines can exploit their physical domination by offering clemency or even rewards to those who rat out on other perps. The inner bastion of Fallujah will collapse like a termite-eaten post as each man looks out for himself.

I just pray this goes this way and doesn't degenerate into a wink-wink nod-nod by the Iraqi's. These terrorists cowards had the good manners to gather in one place and let the Marines at them in a stand up fight. If they melt away into the population they will be bombing Humvees and killing people by the roadside all over the triangle till we give up and leave.

13 posted on 05/01/2004 11:34:47 AM PDT by Nov3
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To: Nov3
Either they've added more that will need to be dealt with into the mix or it's gonna work. It won't take long to figure out which way our guys will need to go.
14 posted on 05/01/2004 12:06:28 PM PDT by GoLightly
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To: swarthyguy
FYI
15 posted on 05/01/2004 12:07:26 PM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry's been AWOL for two decades on issues of National Security!)
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To: MEG33
Thanks.

I guess we should call the Falluja Defense force,

The new and improved Bush's Baathist Republican Guard.

Great move to bring the Baathis back.

Not so good to allow the Fallujans to score a victory over the US. Yes, despite all the convoluted rationalisation and justification, it's a victory for the jihadis and will be percieved by the world as such.

Too many nuances.

Sorry, but as TSEliot said April is the cruellest month, and it certainly has been so.

The only silver lining is the return of the Baathis.



16 posted on 05/01/2004 12:23:12 PM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: Libertarianize the GOP
Thanks.

Yes, I have been following the "Belmont Club" analysis on Fallujah .
17 posted on 05/01/2004 12:33:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: John Jorsett
We can Micro analyse Fallujah..yet the main ident in Iraq is seeing that it does not collapse into a terror proxy ..become Lebanon on the Euphrates.

Even if the U.S. tactically withdrew from Iraq ..standing like Colossus with one foot in the Persian Gulf..the other in the Med...all would be fine,
for the Spice [*oil] would flow..the Corporate synergy of the Orient prospering multitudes.

Keeping Iran in check,and its proxy terror orgs is the key.
In time...from TV/Satillite exposure..to direct business/privitization...Americas Freedom ident would move thru Islam...call it a Good Virus.

We just have to stay in the region..ensure Caspian pipelines flow to the inter*Stan trans system to the new terminals..onto the Orient.

Eventually..Jihadi will try for shipping bottlenecks...Hormuz,Suez..Indonesian waters.
Much of the worlds security will fall to the United States Navy.

2 More refurbished Carrier battle/strike groups now move into place...USS Dwight D Eisenhower is scheduled out from yard availabity which began in 2002.

The Navy has the resource base ..several carriers are good till 2025.

Iraq has been an experiment..yes..some of the idents occuring were seen in U.S. Thinktank..but shunted aside.

So..in the end..tactically remaining in the Persian Gulf is key..ensuring shipping trans and oil/gas pipline trans.

Islam is a rotted house......eventually it collapses.

18 posted on 05/01/2004 12:35:43 PM PDT by Light Speed
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To: Light Speed; NormsRevenge; Grampa Dave; blam; Cap Huff; Boot Hill; BOBTHENAILER
Interesting comments.
19 posted on 05/01/2004 12:45:21 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: PokeyJoe
Now that is a battleground face!
20 posted on 05/01/2004 12:46:15 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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