Rasmussen: Bush up by 1% 46-45

rasmussenreports.com ^ | 1 May 2004 | Rasmussen

[Owen]

Bush leads Kerry by 1% in the Rasmussen poll, whose methodology seems to have established a sine curve within its margin of error. This suggests no recent change in prospects for either candidate.

[halley]

Not really. Perot was such a wild card that it was hard to tell just what he was going to do. Rush didn't expect a Clinton meltdown, although he certainly thought it should happen... thought the American electorate would wake up to the reality.

Rush is rarely wrong...

[halley]

Disagree. I believe that Kerry IS imploding... not that he couldn't win, but it's less and less likely... long way to go, though

[LibLieSlayer]

There sure are quite a few dims that disagree with you on kerry's "seemimg" implosion. He will not go "boom" and be gone in a flash...no, no. He will die of a thousand paper cuts, and the debates will be the beginning of his death knoll.

LLS

[LS]

So, what was the nightly number last night, you math whizzes?

[Tennessean4Bush]

Kerry's got a real shot to win.

He has a shot because he is the presumptive nominee of one of the parties in a two party system and presumably he will be a going concern on election day.

However, the economy is in another gear now getting ready to create quite a few jobs over the next year or two starting last month. By November, the economy will be an asset for Bush and not a liability.

The current problems in Iraq are actually serving to innoculate Bush come November on the Iraq issue. Either it will be markedly better over there, or it will be about the same or perhaps a little worse. It is, of course, possible for the bottom to fall out and then well all bets are off. But I would bet that things will be better come October or at least about the same.

[TomEwall]

I think you're right. April's been a good month for Bush. In terms of events, the only good news was the economy, specifically the jobs report. April was a terrible month for Iraq, plus there was the 9/11 commission, the Clark book, and the Woodward book. In spite of all that he has gained.

When Rasmussen shows the two are even, that translates to Bush up by around 3 or 4. The job approval for April has been around 52, which is a good number. And Rasmussen shows Bush as preferred on handling the economy. Almost impossible for him to lose if that holds up.

[cajungirl]

I wonder if how they break depends on the times. Seems to me with nat security and war being the big issue, the late breakers may not want to take a risk with Kerry. Maybe it is wishful thinking.

[John_7Diamonds]

Yes but there is no Perot this year.

John

[ladyinred]

Exactly, I never trust that stuff! The media is doing all they can to bring Bush's numbers down, and it has worked so far. Kerry is not out of anything.