Badger Poll: Bush leads 50%-38% in Wisconsin - big contrast to other polls

JS Online ^

[No Dems 2004]

With the Bush-Cheney ticket about to pepper the state with campaign visits, two new polls offer very different pictures of the presidential race.

statewide Badger Poll has President Bush widening his lead over Democrat John Kerry in the past month and ending a gradual slide in his popularity dating back to last fall.

A poll done by the St. Norbert College Survey Center, however, gives Kerry a small lead in hotly contested Wisconsin.

Although it's not uncommon for polls conducted on different days by different organizations to deviate, the Wisconsin polls aren't easy to reconcile.

In the Badger Poll, taken April 20-28 by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, Bush leads Kerry 50% to 38%, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 6%.

That's a bigger advantage than Bush enjoyed in the same poll a month ago, when he led Kerry 47% to 41%, with Nader at 5%.

It's also a much larger margin than Bush has had in any national polls. Those polls have fluctuated in recent weeks but by relatively small amounts, with all the numbers pointing to a very tight contest.

Wisconsin has tracked the national results remarkably closely in the past three presidential races, and the state was decided by just two-tenths of a percentage point in 2000.

[No Dems 2004]

Both Rasmussen and another poll thought the Prez was behind, but Badger says he leads 50%-38%. Badger also says the Prez has 50% saying he's doing a good or excellent job. Houston, we have a problem ...

Any comments?

[onyx]

LOL-LOL-LOL

[MJY1288]

The more the public gets to know Kerry, the more these Polls will show George W. Bush ahead

[Lancey Howard]

Know anything about the Badger poll?

[victoryatallcosts]

There's a model problem with someone. Either Badger is very right or very wrong.

Best guess: they've got more Republicans in their mix than the other polling firms.

[BigSkyFreeper]

HAH! With all the bad press about Kerry lately, I keep going back to the quote I heard Terrance "The Punk" McAwful say at DNC HQ last weekend.

"Next week (this week) will be a great week for Senator John Kerry".

[onyx]

McAwful is so often way off the mark.
You'd think he learn to keep his mouth shut.

[Paleo Conservative]

Any comments?

In 1984, all the major polls underestimated President Reagan's margin of victory in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. I think most pollsters tend to underestimate the Republican vote.

[BigSkyFreeper]

McAwful is so often way off the mark.

Yeah, no kidding. I guess he hasn't learned a lesson since the day after the 2002 elections; making wild eyed comments and bold predictions, and not a one has come to fruition.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Kerry eked out Edwards in Wisconsin in the Wisconsin Democratic Primary. Since it was an open primary, my guess is, alot of those votes that went to Kerry were Republicans.

[JLS]

This poll is quite interesting. Just today, I think, Dales moved Wisconsin from slight advantage Bush to slight advantage Kerry? I will be interested to see what he says tommorrow with the latest versions of these two polls showing such a difference?

Is this the beginning of the recent Bush surge in the national polls showing up in some state polls? Or is this just a sampling error giving us a highly unlikely outcome this one poll?

[dawn53]

I'm of the opinion that polls can be manipulated to "report" anything you want them to report.

Phrasing of a question, demographics, time of poll, participants in the polls, etc.

I felt during the Democratic primaries that the polls were being manipulated so that Kerry would appear to be the front runner, therefore garnering more support at the primaries and "caucii" (a Rushism).

Again, I think in the run-up to the Dem convention, for whatever reason, we are again seeing a clear manipulation of poll numbers showing Kerry in an even split with Bush.

[Watery Tart]

Funny--I was just listening to WTMJ radio (a JS company) and they only reported on the St. Norbert poll. Gee, the news division is a CBS affiliate--I wonder why they only reported one poll. </wide-eyed dummy mode>

[LdSentinal]

Trust the Badger poll ahead of Rasmussen and the St. Norvey poll.

[KQQL]

yes are correct.

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[KQQL]

@

[KQQL]

The poll, sponsored by Wisconsin Public Radio and the St. Norbert College Survey Center, found 49 percent of respondents supported Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts.

Forty-two percent of respondents supported the president, a Republican, while 7 percent supported independent Ralph Nader. Two percent were not sure.

The telephone poll of 358 registered Wisconsin voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. It was conducted between April 14 and April 21, and the respondents were chosen randomly.

http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/news/politics/8549760.htm

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Wisconsin 2004
Presidential Ballot

Bush 42%
Kerry 50%
Other 3%
Not Sure 5%

When Ralph Nader is mentioned as an alternative,
Kerry's lead is cut in half--45% to 41%--
with Nader taking 8% of the vote.

The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted by Rasmussen Reports April 28, 2004. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Wisconsin_April.htm

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In the Badger Poll, taken April 20-28 by the
University of Wisconsin Survey Center, Bush leads
Kerry 50% to 38%, with independent Ralph Nader drawing
6%. MoE 4%

That's a bigger advantage than Bush enjoyed in the
same poll a month ago, when he led Kerry 47% to 41%,
with Nader at 5%.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/apr04/226062.asp

[KQQL]

Source: http://www.jsonline.com

[AntiGuv]

It took me some searching to track down, but the St. Norbert College Survey Center poll was the most accurate in 2000 - its final numbers had Bush & Gore tied at 46% apiece. Here's how some other polls stacked up:

Mason-Dixon: Bush 41% Gore 37%
Rasmussen: Bush 45% Gore 41%
WI Policy Research Inst: Bush 49% Gore 40%
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: Bush 46% Gore 39%
Research 2000: Gore 46% Bush 40%
Zogby: Bush 47% Gore 44%

The Badger Poll at U of W was started in 2002, so there are no numbers to compare, but if I'm not mistaken, they are basically what used to be the WI Policy Research Inst. Poll (but I'm not totally sure).