Posted on 04/23/2004 10:04:50 AM PDT by Veritas_est
Pennsylvania: Fox News' Beltway Boys Predict Upset in PA Senate Race
Republican Assembly efforts noted
The popular weekly political talk show "Beltway Boys" on the Fox News Network predicted an upset win by conservative Congressman Pat Toomey against Incumbent RINO Senator Arlen Specter. To the surprise of many inside the Washington DC beltway, a solid pro-life Republican who will support President Bush in judicial nominations and in tax policy is on the verge of an upset victory over the liberal Senator who has fought the President on both crucial issues.
Despite the efforts by Specter to derail the President's nominees and his weakness on fiscal issues the President endorsed the re-election of Specter. If returned to office, Specter is poised to take the Chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee. While it would seem apparent that the White House would be better served by Toomey the endorsement is seen by many as an effort to limit the antagonism of what would ordinarily be a certain re-election of an incumbent.
In the past couple of weeks the relatively unknown Toomey has soared in the polls and should be well in the lead by Election Day if the current trends continue. While Toomey has motivated supporters and turnout by conservatives should be very good, Specter has resorted to desperate tactics by encouraging liberal Democrat union members to register to vote as Republicans promising that they can immediately return to the Democrat Party.
The efforts to get unashamed liberals to vote for Specter may have actually helped Toomey in his recent upswing in polling. Capitalizing among the bulk of the GOP being conservative Toomey has identified himself with "The Republican Wing of the Republican Party" which is the copywritten moniker of the National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA) and the Pennsylvania Republican Assembly. The Republican Assembly group in Pennsylvania endorsed Toomey earlier this year and much of its leadership have been close to the campaign.
Republican Assemblies work to keep the GOP conservative by endorsing true conservatives prior to primary elections and then putting their vast volunteer network to work for those candidates.
Use of the phrase "The Republican Wing of the Republican Party" in the campaign and on the Fox News broadcast brought a flood of interest to the NFRA. NFRA President, Richard Engle said, "We are pleased that Cong. Toomey is using the phrase because it reflects the reason we are known by it." Engle continued, "If a non-member of a Republican Assembly or a candidate not endorsed by a state chapter were to use the phrase, well, they would get a call from our attorney. In this case it is very appropriate and we are very encouraged by the recent polling in Pennsylvania. I just hope that the trend continues and that the Pennsylvanians who have seen Sen. Specter as the obstructionist liberal that he is will stay motivated and vote for Cong. Toomey for US Senate.
It'll be like Bill Simon in CA and Bret Shundler in NJ. Real conservatives but because of the demographics, losers in the end. Sad, as I am tired of Arlen, and want the GOP to retain the seat. Specter would beat Hoefel easily. Toomey would most likely lose.
MoodyBlu
For the Pennsylvania state GOP, especially many of the local officials, that is undoubtedly true. They want "Six More Years!" of pork. It's a fairly universal phenomenon.
The taboo about challenging incumbents is a somewhat different issue. Primaries take a lot of time and money, and can sap the strength of a party apparatus. If the 11th Commandment was maintained, it wouldn't be a big deal, but if you had Republicans attacking Republicans every election, people would start to get a real low impression of Republicans, because the criticism would validate the charges coming from the Democrats.
Please don't compare Pennsylvania to California and New Jersey and expect to be taken seriously.
I've suspected for some time that the Bush administration is playing a very interesting game with regard to these U.S. Senate seats. Their primary concern isn't necessarily seniority, and it has nothing to do with incumbency -- it has everything to do with "ideological cleansing" in the Senate from both sides of the aisle.
To the Bush team, I'm convinced that the absolute worst thing for any state in the Northeast is a pair of U.S. Senators split between the two parties. In my opinion, the Bush administration would rather deal with two Democratic senators from a "Blue" state than deal with a Senator from each party -- because it's a lot easier to screw a Democratic state when it comes to Federal appropriations bills. This is exactly why the Bush administration did not lose much sleep when Jeffords jumped ship in 2001, and why they did not try very hard to defeat Lautenberg in New Jersey in 2002.
If Bush is serious in his support of Specter, it's because he thinks the odds of a Specter victory in November are better than the odds of a Toomey victory.
That's just my take on things.
2003-2004 cycle
| CANDIDATE NAME | DIST | NET RECEIPTS | NET DISB | CASH | DEBT | THROUGH |
Pennsylvania | ||||||
| CRYSTLE, CHARLES DEANS | SEN | $40,098 | $29,277 | $10,820 | $0 | 09/30/2003 |
| DOUGLASS, EUGENE F | SEN | $8,084 | $8,084 | $0 | $11,001 | 03/31/2004 |
| HOEFFEL, JOSEPH M | SEN | $1,608,777 | $807,283 | $801,492 | $0 | 04/07/2004 |
| SANTORUM, RICHARD J | SEN | $1,215,125 | $737,722 | $856,691 | $0 | 03/31/2004 |
| SCHWARTZ, ALLYSON Y | SEN | $0 | $14,478 | $39 | $68,570 | 03/31/2004 |
| SPECTER, ARLEN | SEN | $9,059,278 | $10,385,537 | $4,591,542 | $0 | 04/07/2004 |
| TOOMEY, PATRICK JOSEPH | SEN | $3,854,400 | $3,351,906 | $1,164,145 | $165,000 | 04/07/2004 |
1980 
"The far-right Al D'Amato CANNOT win in a state like New York!! Nominate JAVITS or this seat goes DEMOCRAT!!! D'Amato is simply UNELECTABLE!!!"
1994 
"The far-right Rick Santorum CANNOT win in a state like Pennsyvania!! Nominate HAFER or this seat goes DEMOCRAT!!! Santorum is simply UNELECTABLE!!!"
1998 
"The far-right Peter Fitzgerald CANNOT win in a state like Illinois!! Nominate DICKERSON or this seat goes DEMOCRAT!!! Fitzgerald is simply UNELECTABLE!!!"
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.