It'll be like Bill Simon in CA and Bret Shundler in NJ. Real conservatives but because of the demographics, losers in the end. Sad, as I am tired of Arlen, and want the GOP to retain the seat. Specter would beat Hoefel easily. Toomey would most likely lose.
MoodyBlu
Please don't compare Pennsylvania to California and New Jersey and expect to be taken seriously.
BASED ON WHAT?
Specter is having trouble winning his own party's nomination with the support of the President, the other senator, the state committee, and 24 years of incumbency and 15 million dollars.
Toomey, a virtual unknown is in a statistically even race with this 'unbeatable' 'powerful senior senator'. He did this raising about 3 million dollars and building a 'hugh and series' grassroots network. His name is becoming well known here and across the country.
People have seen the difference between a real republican and Arlen Specter and are supporting the real deal. This is already considered the most important race in the country and is the most watched. When he wins Tuesday, endorsements and money will be flowing in faster than can be counted.
Joe Hoeffel is also unknown outside his district, not having had the benefit of a primary challenge to drive that name recognition. They will also see a clear difference when compared to the old worn liberal mantra that the dems will drag out.
Last, but not least, a Toomey win will help Bush take PA in the fall because there will be a lot of energized Toomey voters going to the polls. These people will not be as likely to vote or to at least skip the races at the top of the ticket. This is what you will see if Specter wins because of Bush's support. If Specter would win now and in the fall, Bush's chances go down.