[goldstategop]

Joseph Farah thinks John F. Kerry is going to win. Sorry to rain on every one's parade but history looks like its going to repeat itself. If President Bush and his supporters discount the bounce out of a Democratic Convention, they're dreaming. Overconfidence is our biggest enemy. You say you don't want this prediction to become a reality? Then be prepared!

[RobFromGa]

It gives me no pleasure to make this prediction. While I believe Bush has been a failure as a president in many ways and cannot support him for re-election, I know Kerry will prove disastrous for the country.

The voice of a reasoned thoughtful man. Not. Either that or he never grew up.

Would the USA be a better country if every single citizen believed in the Constitution, wanted the government to butt out, and for people to be responsible for themselves? Of course. Do most Americans think this way? Not enough yet.

They need to be weaned from the government over time. SocSec and Medicare will be reformed in term 2. Very possibly structural tax changes will occur in term 2.

And most importantly the WoT will be advanced in term 2.

For Farah to not vote for Bush is disgusting in light of the fact that he knows what a "disaster" Kerry will be. For Farah to try to influence others of the rightness of his stupid path is even more reprehensible. What is the alternative he proposes other than a magic wand and some pixie dust? He needs to rejoin reality.

WorldNetDaily, nice to have known you.

[Punditstar]

John Kerry is no Bill Clinton. He is in that he has no core prinicpiles or decency, but he doesn't have Clinton's charisma.

[browsin]

It's pointless making predictions at this point,there are so many variables that cold tip the scales in such a tight race between now and November.The public is fickle,and most dont see things in terms of 'left','right','conservative','socialist'....they just see headlines.

[tkathy]

Clinton was and is a media superstar. The camera turns onto him and he lights up. Kerry has none of this.

[Corin Stormhands]

The day after the Democratic convention, Kerry will be a front-runner.

You'd like that, wouldn't you Joe?

[Snake65]

NYT, 3/9/84:

The new Gallup poll, taken by telephone among 719 registered voters from March 2 to March 6, confirmed what political specialists generally believe to be a very volatile situation among the electorate five days before Tuesday's primaries and caucuses in nine states.

The poll found that in a trial heat for the Presidency, 52 percent said they favored the Colorado Senator to 43 percent for Mr. Reagan. When matched against Mr. Hart's two leading rivals in the poll, Mr. Reagan led former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, 50 percent to 45 percent, and Senator John Glenn of Ohio 52 percent to 41 percent.


WaPo, 7/23/84:


Conducted at the end of the Democratic National Convention last week, the Newsweek-Gallup Poll of 1,006 registered voters showed 48 percent supporting Mondale and his vice-presidential nominee, Rep. Geraldine A. Ferraro (D-N.Y.), 46 percent favoring Reagan and Vice President Bush, and 6 percent undecided.

The 2 percent difference is insignificant, since the poll has a 4 percent margin of error.


WaPo, 7/27/84:

WHAT IS going on with the polls? For months we were told that Ronald Reagan was nine or 14 or 26 points ahead of Walter Mondale. Then, within hours of the close of the Democratic convention in
San Francisco, out came the Gallup organization with a poll showing Mr. Mondale two points ahead. Have 18 million Americans suddenly changed their minds? Or are the polls just wrong?

The Toronto Star, 5/19/88:

A CBS/New York Times poll released Monday said Dukakis leads Bush 49-39 per cent and would beat the vice-president in all regions of the country if the election were held now. A Lou Harris poll Sunday gave Dukakis a 50-43 per cent edge.

WaPo, 6/30/88

In the Gallup poll of 1,210 registered voters conducted last weekend, Dukakis held a 46-to-41 percent lead over Bush, compared with a 52-to-38 percent lead he held in a similar poll in mid-June. The poll found Dukakis losing ground among most key voter groups, particularly self-described Democrats and independents, a key swing group.

The ABC News-Money Magazine poll gave Dukakis a 3 point margin, essentially a dead heat under the margin of polling error. In the last Washington Post-ABC News poll at the end of the May, which used the same methodology as this one, Dukakis had an 11 point lead.

The ABC-Money poll of 1,013 adults was taken June 22-26 and showed Dukakis dropping from being the choice of 52 percent of the general public to 45 percent. Bush gained 1 point, rising to 42 percent; those with no choice increased 4 points.>


NYT, 7/26/88

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll. This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

[11th Earl of Mar]

Farah is like Buchanan... who believes that if Bush, an imperfect conservative, loses it somehow makes Farah look smarter or more correct.

His predictions should be taken as seriously as Bush-hater Eleanor Clift's predictions on The McLaughlin Group.

If you ever see that show you will notice her "predictions" are only a product of her wishful thinking- they have nothing to do with reality.

[Preachin']

To say that he expects Kerry to bounce and have a lead after the convention doesn't exactly make Farah a political genius. Well... duh! Another issue that people forget is that the Summer Olympics immediately follow the Democrat Convention. Most of the public won't be looking for John Kerry sound bites.

Mark this down. President Bush will win by 50 electoral college points.

[American_Centurion]

Who will be the Ross Perot for GWB?

Ross garnered almost 19% of the popular vote in 1992, who will take that much out of the race this time?

If anything Ralph Nader will siphon votes from Kerry. Mr. Farah, get your glasses fixed and learn to read history. Clinton did not beat GHWB because of his extreme popularity, GHWB lost because of his lethargic campaign and Ross Perot!

[Katya]

Sorry Joe...Kerry is no Clinton, and the most important FACTOR is missing.....

Ross Perot.

I have no doubt this will be a tight race in the polling data....but presidential races are proportioned by the electoral college, not polling popularity.

Bush wins.....

[trickyricky]

Kerry is a colorless, humorless, unlikable patrician...

...I know Kerry will prove disastrous for the country...

Kerry is a dangerous man...

Because I don't have a dog in this hunt, I think I can see it a little more objectively, a little more clearly

You don't sound like you care very much about the country Joe.

[LS]

I really don't think anyone is "overconfident." That's a straw man. Farah is flat wrong. Not only will Bush win, but he will win big. It isn't going to reach "landslide" levels, but I see him getting well over 300 EVs (and stand by my prediction of 330 EVs).

Farah WAY overestimates the ability of Kerry to campaign without screwing up---something he has shown himself to be utterly incapable of. Moreover, Kerry isn't Clinton, and Bush II isn't Bush I.

Moreover still, the economy in 2004 isn't the economy in 1992.

[Shane]

Farah is simply wrong on this issue. When it comes time to vote in November, the majority of Americans will ask themselves one question, "Who will better protect them and our country". The answer is clearly Bush and he will will by a substantial majority.

[varon]

bump

[Charlotte Corday]

bump

[trebb]

While I believe Bush has been a failure as a president in many ways and cannot support him for re-election, I know Kerry will prove disastrous for the country.

That statement alone makes the whole piece useless blather...

[Flux Capacitor]

Bush does not have to worry about a strong third-party candidate siphoning away votes, the way his father did.

Bush did not have to endure a primary challenge, the way his father did.

And Bush is not up against a Democratic candidate who is even REMOTELY telegenic or appealing to swing voters, the way his father was.

Farah's full of it.

-Dan

[Elsie]

I can't do that. I won't do that. I won't cast a vote for a candidate who doesn't really support the Constitution of the United States, even though he takes an oath to uphold it. I will not vote for a candidate for president who increased spending – not just defense spending, but all spending – so dramatically.

 

HUH??

 

Are you trying to infer that Al would have done better on these counts??

How do we fund Homeland Security??  Bake sales??

 

 

---

I don't believe we'll ever get real political choices as Americans if we keep making the mistake of supporting the lesser of two evils.

 

So, you're suggesting we'll do better by electing the GREATER of two evils????

---

Methinks Farah has some logic problems....

[aruanan]

Overconfidence is our biggest enemy.

This is true, but columns like this show that Farah has yet to settle down into a steady aim.

[LavaDog]

Seems to be forgetting a "little factor"which had a small impact in 1992.....

Ross Perot