Why Kerry Will Win (Joseph Farah Warns History Is Repeating Itself All Over Again)

Worldnetdaily.com ^ | 04/21/04 | Joseph Farah

[goldstategop]

Why Kerry will win

Joseph Farah

I have bad news for Bush supporters gloating at the latest polls showing the president expanding his lead over John Kerry.

I hate to rain on your parade, but this race is far from over.

Bush partisans are giddy over the fact that Kerry's campaign seems to be sputtering – that he can't seem to capture much attention nor generate much excitement.

It's true that Kerry is a colorless, humorless, unlikable patrician.

Nevertheless, despite those characteristics, he's within the margin-of-error range in most polls. It's astounding, really. And that's why Bush is going to lose.

I want to take you back to 1992.

Bill Clinton was in John Kerry's position. He was running considerably further behind George H.W. Bush in the polls. Then came the Democratic convention.

The Democrats are very good at putting on these shows, and Hollywood pulled out all the stops for Clinton.

Much to my amazement at the time, Clinton got a huge bounce from the show – and he never looked back.

Again in 1996, Clinton was running behind Bob Dole in the polls leading up to the Democratic convention. History repeated itself. The Clinton-Gore ticket bounced right back into a second term.

You can look at 2000 and see the same trend, and, while it's true Al Gore didn't win the White House, he did win the popular vote.

Is Bush planning to lose the popular vote again and win re-election in the electoral college? Is he planning to make it that close?

This is my prediction. Mark it down. Remember where you heard it. The day after the Democratic convention, Kerry will be a front-runner.

It gives me no pleasure to make this prediction. While I believe Bush has been a failure as a president in many ways and cannot support him for re-election, I know Kerry will prove disastrous for the country.

Many people tell me I should support Bush for this reason alone.

I can't do that. I won't do that. I won't cast a vote for a candidate who doesn't really support the Constitution of the United States, even though he takes an oath to uphold it. I will not vote for a candidate for president who increased spending – not just defense spending, but all spending – so dramatically. I don't believe we'll ever get real political choices as Americans if we keep making the mistake of supporting the lesser of two evils.

Kerry is a dangerous man – and I think he's going to be the next president.

I even believe he will weather the Ralph Nader storm.

The reason? Bush is more hated now than he was in 2000. The Nader crowd is going to go for Kerry. The Bush opposition will unite to defeat him this time.

It's bad news for America. And I'm stunned at how the Bush team is stumbling and bumbling into defeat.

These guys act like they are political geniuses. They seem to forget that Al Gore actually won more votes than Bush did in 2000.

The overconfidence is staggering.

They don't see this coming.

It's probably too late to do anything about it if they did.

Sure, things can change between now and November. Things can happen. But things can happen that will help or hurt either candidate.

Because I don't have a dog in this hunt, I think I can see it a little more objectively, a little more clearly.

It's going to be Kerry in 2004.

But, please, don't blame the messenger.

[goldstategop]

Joseph Farah thinks John F. Kerry is going to win. Sorry to rain on every one's parade but history looks like its going to repeat itself. If President Bush and his supporters discount the bounce out of a Democratic Convention, they're dreaming. Overconfidence is our biggest enemy. You say you don't want this prediction to become a reality? Then be prepared!

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

Joe Farah is an idiot. The Brigadiers might have use for him, but I haven't considered him a serious Conservative scribe in quite a while.

[ThePythonicCow]

Depressing to consider ... how can something sooo... obviously wrong happen again, when we are just starting to recover from the most corrupt and treasonous presidential terms in our history?

Damn ... just damn.

[ThePythonicCow]

Perhaps not an idiot -- the steely determination to every thing we can to reelect Bush will serve us well for the next half year.

Joe Farah is doing a good job of stoking that determination.

[streetpreacher]

Farah also predicted Howard Dean could/would beat Bush and then Wesley Clark would beat Bush (maybe not in that order). Farah is kinda' a glass-half-empty guy, don't you think?

Truth tell, he looks forward to a Kerry presidency, because in his mind, it hastens a national Armageddon, which he relishes the thought of. There is a certain allure to gloom and doom and even the fulfillment of it to some people. Don't believe me; just look at some of Farah's past columns.

Of course, he could well be right. Shivers...

[Gracey]

Just more Farah DOOM & GLOOM. Nothing unusual here.

One wins by being POSITIVE, by passing POSITIVE messages to others. Write him off!!!! I'll take President Bush's message as my motto.

When asked if he was worried about possibly losing, President Bush said "NO" for I'm going to WIN!!!!

That's what we need to hear.

GO BUSH GO!!!!!!! On to Victory.

[LdSentinal]

Bill Clinton was in John Kerry's position. He was running considerably further behind George H.W. Bush in the polls.

Naturally, Farah neglects to mention is that the Democratic primary in 1992 was not decided until April -- unlike Kerry, who sewed up the nomination in early March.

Again in 1996, Clinton was running behind Bob Dole in the polls leading up to the Democratic convention.

A lie. Dole never led Clinton in 1996.

This is my prediction. Mark it down. Remember where you heard it. The day after the Democratic convention, Kerry will be a front-runner.

What a prediction. Dukakis led Bush Sr. by 17% after his convention in 1988.

Gallup Poll (4/16/04-/4/18/04)

George W. Bush

Approval: 52%
Disapproval: 45%
No Opinion: 3%

Gallup Poll (4/20/1992-4/22/1992)

George H.W. Bush

Approval: 42%
Disapproval: 48%
No Opinion: 10%

[dasboot]

If Effin's elected, I'm outsourcing myself to Chile.

[latina4dubya]

everyone bounces after their convention... even Al Gore did in 2000... we'll never know how things might have turned out had certain states not been called so early... or even had polling places in Missouri not stayed open later than was legal... or had that DUI or DWI not been brought out four days before the election... i'm sure Mr. Farah who is not a Bush supporter would be giddy if he were right about this... i don't believe for one second that he hates to rain on my parade...

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

I've never been able to take him seriously since he lambasted "South Park" as the very basis of all evil in America in a column, and then admitted he'd never seen a single episode. So, I guess, yeah, I have a problem with his objectivity.

[Dane]

Because I(Farah) don't have a dog in this hunt, I think I can see it a little more objectively, a little more clearly.

Wow a neo-Ms. Cleo. Gee Joe, your "clear" thinking left out that Dukakis was ahead by 17 points after the demo convention in 88 and you totally left out Perot.

[stocksthatgoup]

What sunshine this man is. (/sarcasm)

[LdSentinal]

Oh yeah . . .

March 2004 Unemployment Rate - 5.7%
March 1992 Unemployment Rate - 7.8%

[Cincinatus]

Joseph Farah thinks

That's your first mistaken conclusion.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

The man is a legend in his own mind. His psychic powers abound in his own little brain.

[AmericaUnited]

Farah is his usual idiotic self. Even if you loath Clinton, you have to admit that he was a very slick, smooth, cunning, charismatic campaigner, SOMETHING LURCH IS NOT!

[AntiGuv]

Because I don't have a dog in this hunt, I think I can see it a little more objectively, a little more clearly.

FWIW, as anyone paying attention might've guessed, I was ready earlier this year to jump ship myself given the slightest opportunity. John Kerry isn't it..

That's a big part of why I think Bush will win - Kerry's just too repellant. Had it been Gephardt or Edwards or Graham or Clark or Lieberman he would've probably lost.

Farah doesn't mention though where John Kerry's actually gonna get his big boost: It's gonna be from his VP pick and I think that'll catapult him to frontrunner for a while.

[backhoe]

I think we'd do well to heed his warning. Clinton had 90% of the news and entertainment media rooting for him, and in my opinion that is what was mainly responsible for his weaseling into office the first time, and his ability to cling to it once in power.

While I don't see that sort of enthusiastic backing for Kerry in this cycle from the Jackal Pack media, it is somewhat compensated by their visceral hatred for Mr. Bush.

Forewarned is forearmed.

[PogySailor]

It's true that Kerry is a colorless, humorless, unlikable patrician.

Which is exactly why he won't win. Clinton was "Bubba". He was your drinking buddy. He might have been a lying scumbag, but he came across as somebody you could LIKE.

But Kerry? Cold dead fish have more personality.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. Overconfidence is not a good thing. We have to fight like we're behind and we're gonna lose the election.