www.registerguard.com | © The Register-Guard, Eugene, Oregon
April 15, 2004
Poll shows Bush ahead in Oregon
By Jeff Wright
The Register-Guard
Strong anti-tax sentiment in Oregon could give President Bush the leverage he needs to claim the state's seven electoral votes in the presidential race, a new statewide poll conducted by the University of Oregon suggests.
The survey of 444 registered voters shows Oregonians favoring President Bush over presumptive Democratic Party nominee John Kerry 47 percent to 45 percent - well within the poll's margin of error of 4.7 percent. Only 1 percent favored independent candidate Ralph Nader and 6 percent are undecided.
Despite a 48,000-voter Democratic edge in party registration, the state appears "to be trending Republican," said Joel Bloom, a UO political scientist who directed the survey. His best guess why: taxes.
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 Chart: Stephanie Barrow / The Register-Guard |
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Voters in February rejected Measure 30, a statewide tax increase proposal, 58 percent to 42 percent - an even greater margin than the defeat of Measure 28, an earlier tax proposal, Bloom noted.
He said he's somewhat surprised by the results, given Oregon's poor economy, ongoing difficulties with the war in Iraq and widespread national publicity of the 9/11 Commission investigating the Bush administration's surveillance efforts before the terrorist attacks of 2001.
Bloom cautioned, however, that the survey is merely a "snapshot in time" and that what it suggests most of all is that the state's electoral votes are up for grabs. Democrats have carried Oregon in the last four president elections, though Al Gore beat Bush by fewer than 7,000 votes in 2000.
The survey contradicts an earlier poll conducted in early March by Portland pollster Tim Hibbits that showed Kerry leading Bush 45 percent to 40 percent. Bloom speculated that coverage of Kerry's string of presidential primary victories at the time projected him "as a winner and successful guy, and that built up his positives."
It's also possible that Kerry's numbers in Oregon have inched upward since the UO survey was completed last Wednesday - before more political bad news that prompted Bush to hold a rare news conference to defend his policies in Iraq and anti-terrorism efforts at home.
Nader's poor showing in the survey, meanwhile, can only partly be explained by anti-Bush voters not wanting to "waste" their vote, Bloom said. The survey didn't mention Nader by name and represents only those who mentioned Nader by name, he said. He didn't include Nader because it's still unclear whether Nader will even appear on the ballot in Oregon, Bloom said.
As a Green Party candidate, Nader won 5 percent of the presidential vote in Oregon in 2000, nearly double his nationwide percentage. Now running as an independent, he recently failed in Portland to attract the 1,000 supporters needed to qualify for a spot on the Oregon ballot.
Other findings from the UO survey:
• Independents favor Kerry, 46 percent to 41 percent. But Bush easily beats Kerry in terms of party loyalty: 16 percent of Democrats say they'll vote for Bush, while only 5 percent of Republicans say they'll vote for Kerry.
• Kerry leads in the Portland area, 53 percent to 40 percent, while Bush leads elsewhere, 51 percent to 39 percent. No Lane County breakdown was provided.
• Bush leads among men, 50 percent to 43 percent. Kerry leads among women, 46 percent to 44 percent.
• Bush leads among voters between the ages of 18 and 44. Kerry leads among voters 45 and up, and among college-educated voters.
• No clear relationship was found between income and voting preference. Bush does better among "middle-class" voters earning between $40,000 and $70,000 a year, while Kerry leads among "upper middle-class" voters earning between $70,000 and $100,000. However, the state's poorest voters (below $25,000) favor Kerry, and the wealthiest (more than $100,000) favor Bush.
