Iraqi blogger boasts: A new war has just begun (we underestimated Shia anti-Americanism)

Guerilla News Network ^

[Filibuster_60]

"The real clash that's supposed to happen in this war did not yet happen. In the south, people are waiting, and they will be tired in months." - Raed Jarrar, October 2003, interview with GNN

We were standing in tank graveyard on the outskirts of Baghdad when Raed Jarrar, blogger/architect/ democracy activist, first explained to us that the real war had yet to be fought.

It was October 2003, and Muqtada Al Sadr, the 30-year-old Shiite "firebrand cleric" had just declared himself the ruler of an autonomous government. Thousands of loyal followers filled the streets of Baghdad's Shiite slum to show their support.

All the news agencies flocked to his mosque. But few reporters on the ground understood, and almost no one back home, save a small handfull of astute observers like Juan Cole, that Al Sadr and his radical Shiite followers were Iraq's wildcard. Since the first hours after Baghdad fell they had been biding their time, quietly arming, raising money and recruiting new members to fight what they knew would be a coming battle to remove the foreign infidel from their land. The Americans appeared helpless, or unwilling, to stop them.

What you saw Sunday across Iraq was the other shoe dropping - a massive coordinated Shiite uprising that left 22 Iraqis, eight U.S. troops and four Salvadoran soldiers dead.

In a move that is sure to just inflame more violence, the U.S. announced on Monday that an arrest warrant has been issued for Al Sadr.

This is a completely new war, and the Americans are just as unprepared to fight it as they were to run the occupation that began one year ago this week.

Raed Jarrar saw it all coming. As he told us back in October, "In the south, people are waiting, and they will be tired in months."

Jarrar is a 20-something Palestinian-Iraq architect who is best known to the world as one half of the famous Baghdad Blogger team. Shortly before the March 2003 invasion his best friend starting writing a blog called "Where's Raed?" under the pseudonym Salam Pax. At the time, it was the only uncensored reporting coming out of Baghdad. Raed began writing for the blog after the end of "major combat," offering a more jaundiced take on the American arrival than Salam, who seemed to be looking forward to the personal freedoms that an American invasion might bring.

Jarrar also started a small NGO that has completed more than 100 small reconstruction projects. Following his personal mantra, "democracy cannot come from outside," he became a mini-Soros, building bridges for $60 that Bechtel would charge thousands.

With an office in Nasiriyah he frequently came face-to-face with the Shiite militias who controlled the city. He was even detained once, and interrogated overnight before he was released. They never harmed him, but they made sure he knew who was in charge.

Jarrar warned us that the Americans had underestimated the strength and depth of anti-American sentiment among Shiites. Our reporting across Iraq confirmed what he had told us: We found little support among Shia for an American "liberation" that removed a man who had brutally repressed them for decades.

As GNN's Anthony Lappé has been writing last week, forget Fallujah. That is the old war. The new one has just started, and there may be nothing the Americans, the British or their Salvadorans amigos can do to keep the country from tearing apart.

Recently, Jarrar left "Where's Raed?" and can now be found on his own blog called "Raed in the Middle." Read it and you'll understand why we think Raed in the future of Iraq.

The following is an excerpt from Raed's blog for Monday, April 5, 2004:

Raed in the Middle Monday, April 05, 2004

[excerpt]

Muqtada, is younger than me. He is around 25 years old [News reports put him at 30 - GNN], spent all of his life in Iraq studying in religious schools, I think he is very introverted, defensive and acting like a rebel. Yet, he is very smart and pragmatic. He started working immediately after the war stopped, inherited the popularity of his father and used it as a starting point. He knows that his age and religious degree doesn't allow him to represent himself as a leader for Iraq, that's why he started and maintained strong relations with the Iranian very well respected religious personality: Al-Haeri.

Considering Al-Haeri as his religious reference gave him the chance to go ahead with his Anti-American, Anti-Saddam perspective with a strong religious cover.

AsSadr opened offices and mosques in the cities of the south and in Saddam city (Athawra) in Baghdad, which he managed to change its name to AsSadr city [Originally "Saddam City" - GNN]. AsSdr city is a huge gridiron city inside Baghdad that one million Shia people live in, it is the area of the poor, vulnerable and uneducated people, and it is the weapons market of Baghdad, you can get a grenade for $5 or a machine gun for $50.

He created a parallel Iraqi government, as an alternative option beside the CPA, he selected ministers too.

And, maybe the most important thing he could arrange, he controlled a very important part of the religious establishment of Shia Iraqis ... (Al-Hawza).

Everyone was underestimating him; Bremer, political leaders, media, most of my friends, my parents. But I didn't… at all.

From my frequent visits to the south, I could really feel and see the actual strength and authorities AsSadr have, and the real possibility that he will be a key person in the next stage of the Iraqi history.

White revolutions were happening in the southern cities, without anyone noticing that. A strong Shia-Shia competition, which reached to fighting some times, happened between AsSdr and Al-Hakim (assassinated last year in the huge explosion at Najaf). Cities like Amara, Kut, Diwanyya and Simawa were completely controlled by AsSadr party, and Nasryya had dramatic demonstrations that changed the Al-Hakim people in the governorate and replaced them with AsSadr representatives.

One of my dear friends at Najaf told me once that the "Najafians" call Al-Hakim party: the rational stream, and they call AsSadr party: the chaotic one. For sure Al-Hakim had decades of experience and political work, and a strong backup and support from the Iranian government, but AsSadr was just starting.

Then, AsSadr established his own militia: Al-Mahdi Army, with blessings from AyatoAllah Al-Haeri… tens of thousands of Iraqis joined the new army under the eyes of everyone.

The thing that I want to make obvious here is the well designed political and military steps of AsSadr, that I'm sure no one even heard about. Do you know why you didn't hear much about him earlier? Because AsSade wasn't noisy enough to drag the attention of Bremer and the international media, the undesigned explosions of Falluja did.

When the CPA decides to close the AsSadr newspaper and arrest his assistant, they should expect to have real clashes… I mean REAL ones.

Read the full blog here.

To discuss this Article and other issues please visit the Guerrilla News Forum

[Filibuster_60]

Here's the link to the blog.

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[Callahan]

I never once thought building a decent Iraq would be an easy task. On the contrary, I thought it would hard as hell. I wonder if the American people have stones to see it through. The polls aren't encouraging.

[paguch]

As the war rages Teddy Kennedy, on behalf of John Kerry, cheers the terrorists on. Kerry is headed for another Viet Nam like protest. I hope he gets rid of the Camil guy from Florida or it will be dangerous for Republican Senators. Does the FBI have Kerry under survalence?

[cwb]

For the last hour, O'Reilly has been blasting the administration on Iraq. As he said, this is now the 2nd war...and Rumsfeld has failed. The next few days should be interesting to see how our resolve holds up.

[cripplecreek]

The blogger doesnt seem to realize that the followers of Muqtada Al Sadr are a minority.

[mrsmith]

"What you saw Sunday across Iraq was the other shoe dropping - a massive coordinated Shiite uprising that left 22 Iraqis, eight U.S. troops and four Salvadoran soldiers dead. "

"22 Iraqis": LOL!
It's amazing what some idiots will convince themselves of.

Sadr has lost. Iran has wasted it's money. I predict that the people who kill Sadr will be sent by the moderate Shia.

[ambrose]

We live in a society which demands instant gratification.

That's why Clinton was so popular. He cared not one whit about the long-term or America's future. He only cared about tomorrow morning's poll results.

[NotchJohnson]

How do you clean up a shiite hole if the people in the shiite holes want it to stay that way? Really i think that #1 they hate the US - if it was Sadaam's plan fueled by dead bodies that woould be better. #2 these guys have no idea of what life could be like. They need to see the positive side, through the Simpsons or Seinfeld episodes. If life has always been terrible, it is easy to always have your head down.

[swheats]

I saw that too. The best thing Orielly can do now is relay the news and allow us to come to our own conclusions. In the scheme of things, this is just another skirmish in the bigger war.

Our guys have been fighting the war since last year having to maneuver around homemade bombs and suicide and car bombers.

The last thing we need is for the news gatherers to put their anxiety into their reporting. JMO

[oldtimer]

Harry Truman, despite the Communists that riddled his administration, would have handled this with a couple of Daisy Cutters or MOAB's.

And on the subject, the Saudis need to be taken out too.

We absolutely need to turn this one into a lesson for the bad guys.

[Dr. Frank fan]

Which part is the "boast"? So he thinks the US administration underestimated Sadr. big deal. How is that a "boast"?

If we estimated Sadr correctly, he is small fries (the way we've apparently been treating him) and will be taken down soon enough. If we underestimated him, we have certainly adjusted that estimation by now, and will proceed to take him down sooner, or later.

Either way, he's going down.

The only question is, how many will insist on going down with him?

Perhaps Sadr's followers underestimated the Americans. (Often happens.)

Perhaps they should adjust THEIR estimations accordingly. Failure to do so could prove very deadly. (To them.)

[Filibuster_60]

This blogger lives in Iraq and has himself been imprisoned by Sadrist militias, so I'm loath to dismiss him just like that. Sadr personally has very few followers but his ideology has already infected much of Iraqi Shiism like metastatizing cancer. A good 12% of Shiites approve of anti-US attacks and while that sounds minor, in absolute numbers that's 2 million people we're talking about - more than Sunnis that sympathize with their own insurgency.

[NotchJohnson]

The notion that Rumsfeld failed is short sighted. Also, a leader does what he thinks is right, even if it is very difficult and may not get him reelected. We have to have faith, as well as Bill.

[ladyinred]

I said this on another thread, but will repeat it here. I am wondering if there are outside agitators over there. I am cynical I know, but nothing would surprise me anymore about the left.

[cripplecreek]

Personally i see an advantage in this uprising. The cowards have finally emerged from hiding and are ready to meet allah and receive their rasins.

[Longbow1969]

"I never once thought building a decent Iraq would be an easy task. On the contrary, I thought it would hard as hell."

I thought it would be impossible. Islam is not compatible with democracy at this time. Perhaps in a few hundred years Muslims will have updated the Quran or widely interpret it completely differently, but for now we are dealing with a backward religion completely incapable of any sort of a democracy that we could relate to.

There are a few scattered exceptions, but even those are likely doomed to failure simply because Muslims do not understand the notion of a separation between religion and politics.

"I wonder if the American people have stones to see it through. The polls aren't encouraging"

The answer is they do not have the stones to see it through. Much ofcourse is the relentless attacks from the left and mainstream media (one and the same) on Bush and the Iraq policy. But fundamentally, Americans are not terribly interested in trying to democratize a people whom have showed over and over again that they do not share anything like the vision we are offering.

At the end of the day, when Iraq fails utterly to become the democracy many had hoped for, much of the blame will be rightfully cast on the media and the leftists and a gutless American public - but at some point many people are going to have to recognize that Islam is just not going to be able to adapt to Western ideas in our lifetimes.

The good I hope will come out of this is that many in the West will finally begin to recoginize Islam as the scourge it really is. Americans will watch Muslim savages attack everything Western in Israel, through terrorist bombings in Europe, Islamic slaughter of christians in Africa, etc, etc, etc. Over time, people might finally put the pieces together and come to the correct conclusion that Islam is not a "religion of peace" at all - rather it is the mortal enemy of the West.

Longbow

[JasonC]

Dontcha just love how we are supposed to be so all fired scared of a few thousand nearly illiterate young thugs with AKs (but no jobs), and they aren't supposed to be terrified of 280 million of us, with millions of trained soldiers, the best weapons in the world, and decades of $400 billion a year in military investment?

[oceanview]

do you mean Iran, or the DNC? the answer regarding both is likely YES. This Teddy Kennedy "Bush's Vietnam" rhetoric, its not a coincidence. The Sunnis, Sadr's people, are likely in contact with someone from the "international community". They tipped it off, and up the chain it flowed through the left's infrastructure - the UN, the Europeans, the american left, the american media, the DNC.

[maestro]

Right!

"Cruise" missile time again in Iraq,....etc!!

"Just Do it!"