Toomey Within 6 Of Specter In New Poll

SurveyUSA ^ | 4/6/04

[Dales]

U.S. Senate, PA GOP Primary

4/6/2004
Specter- 46%
Toomey- 40%
Other/Undecided- 14%
Data Collected 4/3/04 - 4/5/04
Geography- State of Pennsylvania
Sample Population- 490 Certain Voters
Margin of Error- 4.5%
Client- KDKA-TV Pittsburgh WCAU-TV Philadelphia WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre

[itsahoot]

Is he going to be another Brett Schundler and let the Democrats pick up this Senate seat???

How will you tell the difference? Except that Spector won't be chairman of the Judicial committee, and that is a good thing.

[old and tired]

A huge part of Specter's support is limosine liberals who're largely registered Democrats. The limo liberals and Dems in the Philly suburbs (Hoeffel's hometown area) would go for Hoeffel anyway. In other words, I think Toomey's chance of beating Hoeffel is about the same as Specter's.

In a state that elected Rick Santorum, Pat Toomey is a real possibilty to beat Hoeffel. You can bet that Santorum would campaign his pants off for Toomey too, which should help in the Pittsburgh area. Although Santorum has given Specter his endorsement, he's not bending over backwards for Arlen on the campaign trail.

[Badray]

Thanks for the ping. Great news.

[HitmanLV]

Howwould Toomey fare in the general election?

[Badray]

How'd you do that?

It's not even on their site yet?

You don't have to answer, but damn! You're good.

And such great news, too.

[Dales]

I am hoping we'll get to find out!

[Doug Loss]

Perhaps the good people of Pennsylvania also lurched RIGHT after 9/11 (they have a constant memorial in their state!) and have decided to give the conservative a chance!

Outside of Philly, Scranton, and the Burgh, PA is a very conservative state. Little if any lurching required. As the much-reviled James Carville once said, PA is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh separated by Alabama. He meant it as a slur, of course, but we take it as a compliment.

[KQQL]

I still think . Spector squeeks by Tommey.

[republicanwizard]

He'd do just fine. As many of my PA friends know, I'm supporting Specter. However, my personal hope now is that this is close, real close either way.

1. If Specter wins, he will have to get down every day and thank President Bush. Had Bush remained neutral, Toomey could start thinking about the general. Moreover, we will have a strong candidate in Toomey to go against Rendell in 2006.

2. If Toomey wins, he will have a huge headstart against Hoeffel. Obviously, it might be tough in that turnout in Philly will be high this year. However, Toomey vs. Hoeffel in Western PA and Central PA is an easy Toomey win. (Hoeffel will go over really poorly with Western PA Democrats)

In Northeastern PA and the suburbs, (Toomey's district lies in between), he will have to hammer away at Hoeffel's liberal agenda. It won't be easy, as I said, but I like this one better by the day.

[jwalsh07]

I still think . Spector squeeks by Tommey.

Mo disagrees.

[randita]

I have had the privilege of having Toomey represent me in the 15th Congressional District. He is a conservative's conservative. Specter is a RINO, through and through.

During impeachment, I repeatedly called Specter's office, expressing outrage at Clinton's lying under oath, etc. When Specter didn't vote for removal, that was the end for me. I vowed I'd never vote for him again.

Thank goodness, Toomey represented a viable alternative. I've no doubt Bush would rather have Toomey in the Senate representing PA (Santorum, too), but protocol dictates that they both support the incumbent--shame.

[KQQL]

If Toomey wins..It's a Toss up..
But if Spector wins the GOP primary. he will win .

[KQQL]

In the last 3 weeks...Spector has lost a point in the poll and Toomey gained 2 pints....

= Spector Sqeeks by Toomey

[demkicker]

As many of my PA friends know, I'm supporting Specter

Picture my jaw dropping to the floor. Why in God's name would you support that POS as opposed to Toomey?

[jwalsh07]

We'll see, Mo is a pretty sharp tack.

[Tribune7]

Clearly you don't know enough ignorant people... ;^)

I'll have to find some Dems to hang out with :-)

[GreatOne]

"If 'probable voters' are added to 'certain voters', Specter's lead jumps from 6 to 17 points." (It's on the first page of the report). Add to that the crossover DemoRats, and Toomey has no chance.

I hope that Specter loses the general - he cannot be allowed to chair the Judiciary Committee.

[agrarianlady]

I just have to say, when you put the names Toomey and Specter together, well, I'm just glad they're not running against each other in November 'cause the halloween jokes would be too much. :-)

[republicanwizard]

Because President Bush supports him.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I think Pat Toomey is less vulnerable to a Joe Hoeffel candidacy than is that old RINO Arlen Specter. If Specter wins the primary, I think he'd have a hard time against Hoeffel, since Specter usually loses big outside of the Philly metro area but wins by running even in Philadelphia and piling up huge margins in Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware Counties. That was his formula when he beat Lynn Yeakel (his last strong Democrat challenger) 49%-46% in 1992. But Joe Hoeffel represents Montco and SE Philly in Congress, and Specter can't count on supermajorities in the Philly metro area. So in order to win, Specter would need to win votes from socially conservative but economically liberal blue-collar Democrats in places like Erie and Scranton and Allentown and Wikes-Barre and the blue-collar Pittsburgh suburbs, something that he seems incapable of doing because he has nothing to offer to such voters (why vote for a Democrat-lite when they can vote for the real thing in Hoeffel?). In my honest opinion, the only Republican in the race who can defeat Hoeffel is Pat Toomey, who has been elected and reelected in a blue-collar Democrat district based in Allentown and Bethlehem and whose road to victory was paved by conservative Rick Santorum's two Senate runs (not coincidentally, Santorum represented a blue-collar Democrat Pittsburgh-area district in Congress in the early 1990s). And Toomey is a real Republican, too, unlike Arlen Specter, would become Chairman of the Judiciary Committee and may do to conservative Bush nominees what he did to Robert Bork when he was nominated to the Supreme Court (since Specter would never again have to face Republican primary voters, what's to stop him?). The choice for conservative and moderate Republicans is clear---support Pat Toomey for the Senate.