Poll shows Bush leads Kerry 46%-40% in Penn.

Philadelphia Daily News ^

[No Dems 2004]

Despite bruising media coverage of former counterterrorism adviser Richard Clarke's criticism of President Bush, the Republican incumbent has moved to a six-point lead over Democrat John Kerry in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, the latest Daily News/CN8 Keystone poll shows.

The poll also shows U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey picking up some ground on U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter in the GOP primary, though Specter still holds a double-digit lead.

The poll gives Specter a 50-to- 28 percent lead among registered Republicans surveyed, and a narrower 36-to-33 percent lead among likely primary voters, though that sample is so small it carries a 10-point margin of error.

G. Terry Madonna, director of the poll at Franklin & Marshall College, noted that Bush has overcome a one-point deficit in February to build 46-to-40 percent lead.

"It's been a bad month for John Kerry," Madonna said. "He had that horribly weak explanation of his vote on the $87 billion Iraq package, and Bush launched a huge television campaign here, painting him as a flip-flopper with no values, and a big-spending liberal."

The survey showed Bush with the same 46 percent support he had in February. The difference now is that Kerry has dropped 7 percentage points and Ralph Nader has joined the fray, picking up 3 percent.

"Bush's negative commercials drove up Kerry's unfavorables and pushed some of his weak supporters into the undecided column," Madonna said.

Madonna believes Clarke's accusations that Bush dropped the ball on terrorism largely reinforced the views of committed voters on both sides, failing to pay a dividend for the Democrats.

The good news for Kerry is that Bush is still below 50 percent in the polls, and Pennsylvania voters are focused on issues that could work to Kerry's advantage.

When asked what issues will be most important in determining their vote for president, the economy was voters' leading concern, cited by 31 percent of those polled. Another 10 percent named "American jobs and foreign competition."

"The issues configuration favors Kerry more than Bush," Madonna said. "But this race is still very fluid. A group of about 10 percent of the state's voters will decide what happens in Pennsylvania."

Toomey's conservative challenge to Specter shows some gain in the survey, though Specter still holds a comfortable lead and has begun running television ads attacking him.

Toomey is still unknown to just over half of registered Republicans.

That's far better than a February survey, in which three-quarters didn't know him, but still a drag on his campaign.

"Toomey still has a sizeable name-recognition problem, and Specter's been working to define him before he gets well- known, driving up his negatives," Madonna said, who added that Toomey was "moving up."

"The question is whether he has the time and money to get to where he needs to."

The poll found Specter leading Toomey 50 to 28 percent among voters who described themselves as born-again Christians or fundamentalists. He also led 43 to 31 percent among conservatives.

The Keystone Poll was conducted by Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research.

The survey of 565 registered voters was conducted between Thursday and Monday. The margin of error for the full sample is 4.1 percent.

[No Dems 2004]

Bush: 46% Kerry: 40% Nader: 3%

I don't know if I'm the first one to find this, but it's a cool poll for a state that President Bush lost in 2000.

[rrrod]

its early and things could change but this is good to hear....come on PA throw specter out!

[goldstategop]

Cool. If Bush wins Pennslyvania AND Ohio, the election's over for Ketchup Boy.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Despite bruising media coverage of former counterterrorism adviser Richard Clarke's criticism of President Bush

Despite? Somebody convince me that that fatuous fool wasn't a Republican mole.

[goldstategop]

I can just smell the desperation now in Seinfeld's camp. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in his campaign's headquarters listening to how they're going to deal with this latest dose of bad news.

[section9]

This is just....fabulous. In PA? Amazing.

There's something about Kerry that is turning people off.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[CasearianDaoist]

Despite bruising media coverage of former counterterrorism adviser Richard Clarke's criticism of President Bush

Maybe it is because of it.

[MEG33]

I like the positive better than the negative polls any day...though it's much too early to celebrate.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

You gotta know Liveshot for a while for him to really grate.

[rrrod]

ok ... how does this help/hurt toomey PA?

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

No ideer.

[goldstategop]

Oh I agree.... the real message of the story is Ketchup Boy's getting all the votes he'll win in November and he's not breaking through to where he needs to in order to win. And if he can't win PA, chances are good he'll soon be behind in Ohio as well.

[Preachin']

I haven't seen anything lately on Ohio, but it seems to favor Kerry at this time.

Apparently, a lot of people in Ohio lost jobs in the last few years, and it seems that Kerry is capitalizing on it.

If the election were held today, I'd expect Kerry to win Ohio.

[FRgal4u]

Very sharp observation indeed.

This election will be decided on three states - FL, OH and PA.

If Bush can carry all three, the election is at 75% (advantage Bush).


It seems Bush has found a bottom in mant statewide polls, 45/46 is the bottom for Bush in PA. Wont take much to get to 48-49, once getting towards 48/49 area, it is all about the ground game thereafter.

[DM1]

I know that it is early but this does give me some reason for optimism. i hope that this trend of the Pres increasing while kerry fades keeps building right up to election day

[The G Man]

Okay. I fell asleep and was transported to Bizarro world right?

[LS]

"REGISTERED VOTERS." Not "likely." Add another 1-2% for W and subtract another 1-2% for Frenchie.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. Which means Bush is actually polling over 50% in PA.

[Brandon]

It's a weekend poll (which usually favors Dems) and it's a poll of registered voters rather than likely voters -- again, this favors Dems. Bush could actually be leading by 10 points among likely voters, when you take those two factors into account.

[kms61]

A good start would be to tell John Snow to shut up and keep him our of Pennsylvania and Ohio.