Posted on 03/14/2004 5:06:54 PM PST by KQQL
SPRINGFIELD - Democrat John Kerry would handily defeat President George Bush in Illinois if the election were held today, a new Copley News Service poll shows.
That result may reflect the fact that fewer than half of Illinoisans believe Bush is doing an "excellent" or "good" job as president, according to the same poll. But Kerry also only is ahead of Bush because of huge support in Chicago, a Democratic stronghold.
Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted the poll of 625 registered voters Monday through Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Asked whom they would vote for if the election were held today, 47 percent said Kerry, while 39 percent said Bush. Two percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader, while 12 percent were undecided.
The results do not surprise Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.
"Illinois is a Democrat-leaning state," Coker said. "Republicans have not carried it since Ronald Reagan. If Kerry is going to have any chance, Illinois is more of a must-win for him than Bush. If you see Bush pull ahead in Illinois, the race is probably over."
As might be expected, Kerry
holds a huge lead, 58 percent to 29 percent, over Bush in heavily Democratic Chicago and Cook County. Ten percent are undecided.
In the once heavily Republican collar counties - Mason-Dixon considers them to be DuPage, McHenry, Lake, Will, Kankakee, Kane, Grundy and Kendall counties - Bush leads, but only by a 48 to 39 percent margin, with 11 percent undecided. Bush leads 45 to 38 percent in central Illinois, with 15 percent undecided. Bush also leads in southern Illinois, 44 to 39 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
Only 46 percent of Illinois voters think Bush is doing an excellent or good job. That is slightly lower than Bush's approval rating in early January, when Mason-Dixon did another poll on Bush's job performance, although the drop is within the poll's margin of error.
"Nationally, if (Bush's) rating is under 50, he'd be a goner," Coker said.
However, because Illinois already is a Democratic-leaning state, Bush's dwindling popularity here is not a serious worry to the campaign, Coker said.
"I wouldn't put Illinois in the battleground category yet," Coker said. "The Republican strategy will be defending the states they won last time and try to pick up a few they narrowly lost."
In the poll, Bush also lost ground on his handling of the war in Iraq and the nation's economy.
In early January, 50 percent of Illinois voters said they approved of Bush's handling of the Iraq war, while 41 percent said they disapproved and 9 percent were undecided. Now, 46 percent of Illinois voters approve of the way Bush is handling the Iraq situation, while the number of undecided has risen to 13 percent. The number of voters who disapprove of Bush's Iraq policy stayed steady at 41 percent.
On the economy, the poll shows that only 41 percent of voters approve of the way Bush is handling the economy. Fully 50 percent disapprove, with 9 percent undecided. Two months ago, 44 percent said they approved of Bush's economic policies, 46 percent disapproved and 10 percent were undecided.
Voters generally said they feel Kerry would do a better job than Bush in handling domestic issues, while they feel more comfortable with Bush when it comes to security issues, both international and domestic.
Asked who would do a better job in handling the economy and unemployment, 42 percent said Kerry, while 34 percent said Bush. Twenty-two percent said they were undecided.
More than half of those polled, 52 percent, said they thought Kerry would do a better job handling issues such as health care and prescription drug coverage. Only 27 percent thought Bush would do a better job, while 18 percent weren't sure.
Kerry again got the nod when people were asked who they thought would do a better job handling education. Kerry was preferred by 44 percent, while Bush was favored by 28 percent. Twenty-five percent were undecided.
Kerry also would better address Social Security issues, the poll found, although by a narrower margin than other domestic issues. The poll revealed that 40 percent of voters think Kerry would do a better job with Social Security, while 34 percent think Bush would do a better job. Twenty-two percent said they weren't sure.
Although support for Bush's Iraq policy is dwindling, voters still think he would do a better job with the situation than Kerry. Asked who would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq, 51 percent of voters said Bush, while 32 percent said Kerry. Sixteen percent were undecided.
Bush was also preferred when the question turned to homeland security and anti-terrorism efforts. By a 54 to 29 percent margin, respondents felt Bush would do a better job than Kerry, although 17 percent were undecided.
Nader didn't score more than 4 percent in any of the categories. Unlike in 2000, Nader is running without a party affiliation this time.
, and there is no guarantee he will be able to meet ballot eligibility standards in Illinois or elsewhere.
"I don't see him as a big factor," Coker said.
With voters split over which candidate they feel could best handle domestic or foreign affairs, events just before the fall election could determine its outcome, said Kent Redfield, a political studies professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
"If the situation in terms of international affairs is stable or deteriorating, people are going to focus more on domestic issues," Redfield said. "If, God forbid, there is a terrorist attack in October, then it will be rally around the flag. Events are going to have a big impact."
Not true, in 1988, George #41 easily carried Illinois over another loser from Massachusetts.
Ummm...here's some post-Reagan federal elections
1988 Presidential Election - IL
Bush/Quayle Republican 2,310,939 votes 50.69%
Dukakis/Bentsen Democrat 2,215,940 votes 48.60%
1998 Senate Election - IL
Peter G. Fitzgerald Republican 1,790,041 52%
Carol Moseley Braun Democrat 1,610,496 47%
Don Torgenson Reform 74,704 1%
And if you talk about Republican carrying Illinois statewide in state elections, they've had at least one candidate do so in every election year, including during the Dem landslide in 2002 (although the Dems failed to carry a single statewide office during the GOP sweep of 1994)
IL is very middle of the road. If it wasn't for corrupt RINOs and incompentant party "leaders", you wouldn't see RATs running every office.
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